“It is our national interest that Israel be a safe and stable country, and this is also the key to the stability of the Middle East,” Viktor Orbán said a few months ago when he hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Budapest. In comparison, it is striking that Orbán did not publicly stand up for Israel during the airstrikes against Iran, even though the Israeli government believes that their country will be safe and stable if Iran does not acquire a nuclear bomb.
The key to stability in the Middle East is also that the Islamic theocracy does not have nuclear weapons.
Orbán did not evaluate the American bombings either for or against them. Israel and Trump's United States are considered Orbán's close allies, and in such a tense situation, this distancing is at least striking.
It would be very unpopular in these countries if Orbán demonstrated some understanding towards Iran with this silence. It is true that Hungary has tried to cultivate good relations with Iran in recent years, and Péter Szijjártó has visited Tehran several times, where he also spoke out against the international sanctions imposed on Iran. But Orbán and his foreign minister were probably only able to make it clear in public, through such restrained government communication channels, where they stand on this conflict.
That is why Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar was able to tell Hungarian Royal Television that Orbán"sets a moral standard in his foreign policy, and this is quite rare in international relations."
Although, according to his own words, nothing is further from Orbán than a values-driven foreign policy,"ideologically-centered foreign policy was invented by smart countries for half-hearted countries," he said back in 2014. This became the basis of the foreign policy now called connectivity, according to which commercial relations with countries of any political system are more important than ideological reservations.
At the same time, trade with Iran is dwarfed by that with Israel, and the Hungarian economy would not have suffered if Orbán had stood by Israel's decision.
But not only Israel, but also Donald Trump's decision did not encourage Orbán to stand by his allies. He did not comment on the American bombings, nor did he join the chorus of those praising Trump's decision. If the connective foreign policy was not the reason for this, then only the special relationship with Russia and Turkey could have held him back.
It was spectacularly revealed that the Russians' support was of no use to Iran; apart from diplomatic messages, they were unable to help the Tehran regime with anything, not even intelligence information.
The Hungarian Foreign Minister nevertheless thought it would be a good idea to discuss the Middle East issue with his Russian colleague, and Orbán immediately took advantage of the situation to demand the lifting of sanctions against Russia. And he sent Péter Szijjártó to Brussels to fight to prevent the 18th EU sanction against the Russians, which, however, ended in embarrassment.
Orbán allegedly negotiated with Prime Minister Robert Fico that the two countries would veto this sanction, and Szijjártó triumphantly announced this after the meeting. But soon after, the pro-government press also presented it as a fact that “Slovakia has received an offer it cannot refuse: Hungary can once again be left alone.”
Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár indicated after the meeting that the package does not endanger the Slovak economy, but that guarantees are being sought to mitigate the consequences of disconnection from Russian energy sources.
Orbán has one thing in mind: he is trying to exploit the Middle East conflict for domestic political purposes. He has called a new meeting of the Defense Council (this is the government body that meets at least every two weeks anyway), and has started talking about protection against migrants and possible terrorist threats again. Most recently, he has decided on extraordinary measures, which for now mean an increased police presence in public areas.
However, if the peace announced by Trump is not sustainable, further measures are likely, as Orbán has already written on his Facebook page, “the effects of the Iran-Israel war will reach Europe: we must prepare for demonstrations and a growing terrorist threat.” The question is what means he finds appropriate to prevent the demonstrations, and whether he will introduce them, citing security reasons, before Saturday’s demonstration, which is otherwise difficult for the government to handle.
