FAQ

Israel has been bombing targets in Iran for several days. The Iranian army is apparently suffering significant losses. What options remain for the Islamist regime in Tehran? Is further escalation imminent?

How weak is the Iranian leadership?

The Iranian leadership has suffered heavy losses in personnel terms. Since Friday, the country's most important military commanders, the army chief of staff and the head of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have been killed, as have almost the entire leadership of the IRGC air force and its intelligence chief. Successors were quickly appointed for most positions, who could potentially pursue an even tougher line against Israel, according to Iran expert Katajun Amipur.

The Islamic Republic also apparently suffered heavy military losses. According to Israeli sources, one in three launch pads for surface-to-surface missiles has been destroyed. Iran has been firing these ballistic missiles in its retaliatory strikes against Israel since Friday. The country's air defenses also appear to be largely damaged. Recently, Israeli aircraft were able to penetrate the city of Mashhad, deep in eastern Iran, in broad daylight.

In addition, the Iranian leadership seemed completely surprised by Friday's attack. Like many observers, they apparently assumed that an attack would only be imminent after the nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday. Iran also appears to be poorly positioned in terms of intelligence.

How much is the nuclear program affected?

The nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow, as well as several research facilities, including in Isfahan, have been bombed, some multiple times. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), damage to the above-ground facilities at Natanz, where uranium is enriched, has so far only been reported at the facilities. However, the actual enrichment facility lies several hundred meters underground and is said to be largely intact. According to the IAEA, no damage is known at Fordow, which is also very well protected.

What could be more problematic is that leading scientists were also killed in the Israeli attacks.

It is unclear how far the Israeli attacks have actually set back the nuclear program. However, experts believe it cannot be ended by military means. Therefore, a new international agreement is needed – which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want. According to Islamic scholar and Iran expert Katajun Amipur, Iran will not give up the civilian use of nuclear power.

Can Iran escalate the war further?

Iran is one of the most heavily armed countries in the region. The majority of its missile arsenal is domestically produced, as Iran was subject to UN sanctions for a long time. According to various estimates, the country is said to possess more than 2,000 ballistic missiles. In addition, there are the far more precise cruise missiles.

However, says Pieter Wezeman, arms expert at the International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Iranian weapons are clearly inferior to Israeli ones. Wezeman describes the Iranian drones, which Russia also uses in Ukraine, as"flying bombs" without sophisticated technology. The leadership in Tehran can therefore deploy a lot of, albeit not particularly good, equipment against Israel. The first days of the war indicate this: Even if the majority are likely to be intercepted by Israeli systems, the sheer volume means that some rockets still hit Israel.

But Iran could also trigger an economic escalation. Around one-third of global oil transports pass through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a strait between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Threats are already circulating that the Iranian Navy could close this waterway. The repercussions would be felt worldwide; oil prices have recently risen significantly. This step could increase pressure on the international community to stop the Israeli attacks.

The Iranian leadership repeatedly emphasizes that it does not want to expand the war into the region."Unless it is forced upon us," said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. These remarks are directed particularly at the United States, which Iran blames for the Israeli attack. Attacks on US bases in the region could also fuel the confrontation. US President Donald Trump had warned Iran against such attacks.

How can Iran escape the confrontation?

Foreign Minister Araghchi recently hinted at a possible de-escalation. He said that if Israel stops the bombings, they could return to the negotiating table. And despite US President Trump's inconsistent stance, he also wants new talks on the nuclear program. Russia and Turkey have recently offered to act as mediators. It is perhaps more realistic that Oman could continue to leverage its diplomatic relations. The Gulf state had already played an important role in the nuclear talks.

It is important for the Iranian leadership to save face from the immediate confrontation. New talks with the US, which they hold partly responsible, must also be sold to their own hardliners. However, it should be clear in Tehran that they cannot win militarily.

Could there be uprisings in Iran?

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called on the Iranian people to rise up against their own leadership. However, despite the criticism, very few people welcome the constant Israeli attacks. Iran expert Amipur is also skeptical:"I don't know how Netanyahu imagines people taking to the streets when they risk having bombs falling on their heads." On the contrary, as many as possible are trying to leave the big cities and seek safety in the countryside.

And internal repression is increasing. There are reports of arrests of known opponents of the regime, and there are also checkpoints operated by armed state militias, ostensibly to maintain public order. Concern for one's own life prevails for most people at the moment.