US President Donald Trump’s trip to Israel and Egypt on Monday marks the most significant diplomatic test of his second term, and a potential turning point in a war that has devastated Gaza and shifted regional politics.

Trump has cast the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, brokered by his administration, as proof that “the war is over.” But with deadlines looming for hostage releases, ongoing internal clashes in Gaza and fragile regional trust, the deal faces immediate and serious challenges.

The president’s one-day trip is being described by aides as both a celebration and a final push to cement the truce. Trump will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog before addressing the Knesset, then travel to Egypt for a summit with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The gathering in Sharm el-Sheikh, attended by world leaders including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is expected to formalise the Gaza peace plan and secure commitments for aid and reconstruction.

The ceasefire, negotiated by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, calls for Hamas to release the remaining hostages it seized during the October 7, 2023 attacks that killed more than 1,000 Israelis. In return, Israel will free 250 Palestinian prisoners and 1,722 detainees from Gaza, including minors.

Trump’s visit comes as Israeli forces pull back from parts of Gaza and aid convoys pass through the Rafah crossing with Egypt. His administration is portraying the trip as a diplomatic “victory lap”, underlining his claim that all sides – including Arab states – have welcomed the deal.

“This is going to be a very special time,” Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One. “Everybody is cheering. Everyone is happy.”

If the ceasefire holds, it would mark the end of one of the Middle East’s longest and bloodiest conflicts in recent decades. Thousands of Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its military campaign following the Hamas attacks, with large areas of Gaza reduced to ruins.

For Egypt, the truce reinforces its role as a key regional mediator and humanitarian lifeline. The Rafah crossing has become the main conduit for aid deliveries, while Cairo’s diplomatic weight will be tested as guarantor of the agreement.

In Israel, Netanyahu has called the ceasefire “the beginning of a new path,” but warned of “very big security challenges ahead.” The Israeli government remains wary of Hamas’s intentions and concerned about whether the militant group can, or will, enforce order across Gaza.

For Trump, the ceasefire could become a signature foreign-policy achievement ahead of the 2026 election cycle. His team is presenting the deal as a product of “America’s leadership”, while allies point to its potential to stabilise a region long viewed as ungovernable.

But the risks are high. The ceasefire depends on rapid implementation and mutual restraint – two qualities often absent from previous attempts at peace.

Pressure points

Hamas has sought last-minute changes to the prisoner-release list, demanding that Israel free seven high-profile figures, including Marwan Barghouti and Ahmad Saadat. The group has said it will release all remaining hostages if at least two of these men are included. Israel has not confirmed whether it will agree to that condition.

The situation in Gaza remains volatile. Reports from the territory on Friday described clashes between Hamas fighters and a powerful local clan in Gaza City, leaving at least 27 people dead. The violence has underscored the fragility of the current calm and the absence of a clear post-war governance structure.

Meanwhile, scenes of displaced Palestinians returning to the ruins of Khan Younis have tempered the sense of celebration. Despite aid trucks moving through Rafah, most of Gaza remains without reliable access to food, clean water or power.

Trump’s optimism – “everybody is happy,” he said – contrasts sharply with those realities. For many Gazans, the war may have paused, but the suffering has not ended.

Cairo summit and what comes next

The Sharm el-Sheikh summit will test whether the ceasefire can evolve into a longer-term political framework. Egypt is expected to push for international monitoring of reconstruction and a timetable for lifting restrictions on goods and movement into Gaza.

The UK is among the countries pledging support. Prime Minister Starmer has announced £20 million in humanitarian aid for Gaza as part of a broader £116 million package for Palestinians this year. “Today is the first, crucial phase of ending this war,” Starmer said. “Now we must deliver the second phase, in full.”

Trump’s delegation includes senior officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Their presence underlines Washington’s determination to maintain control of the process, though critics argue that bypassing traditional diplomatic channels could complicate follow-through.

Whether the ceasefire endures will depend on events in the coming hours. If successful, Trump’s Middle East visit could be remembered as the moment when two years of war finally gave way to diplomacy. But if talks stall or violence resumes, the trip risks being seen as premature – a high-profile photo opportunity overshadowed by the same divisions that have doomed past peace efforts.