For the third time in about a year, France is at risk of losing another prime minister. Yesterday's decision Francois Bayrou to test his own government with a vote of confidence on September 8 has taken the political landscape by surprise – and is seen as a high-risk move. The centrist prime minister leads a minority government in a parliament deeply divided into three camps, two of which have made clear their intention to topple him.

The 74-year-old Bayrou, who took office nine months ago after the fall of Michel Barnier , will need to demonstrate extraordinary political skill to stay in power. Markets have already begun to react nervously as France plunges back into a period of political instability. Following his announcement, the yield spread of French 10-year bonds over their German counterparts rose from 69 to 73 basis points.

The autumn was predicted to be a difficult period for the prime minister, who was preparing the 2026 budget with the aim of saving 44 billion euros and reducing the budget deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026. The percentage remains high, however. At the heart of the measures is the abolition of two of the country's eleven official holidays, a proposal that has caused widespread social discontent: according to an August poll, 84% of citizens oppose the idea, up from 73% in July.

Rather than bring the budget to Parliament and risk its rejection, Bayrou opted for a vote of confidence. Our country is in danger, said on the afternoon of August 25. France's public debt stands at 114% of GDP, the third highest in the EU after Greece and Italy. The dependence on borrowing has become a chronic phenomenon, Bayrou stressed, noting that the French state will spend more on debt servicing this year (66 billion euros) than on education or defense.

Bairou, who ran for president in 2012 on the slogan of fighting state waste, is now calling on Parliament to recognize the seriousness of the situation. As he explained, the vote of confidence does not concern the budget measures themselves, but a fundamental question: does the House recognize that there is national need for fiscal consolidation?

As the Economist notes, the French prime minister is right about the state of public finances. France has not managed a balanced budget since 1974. During the pandemic and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Emmanuel Macron's previous governments spent huge sums to protect citizens from inflation and the energy crisis, without, however, reaping political benefits. Markets are watching with concern the possibility of another government collapse due to budget . Since August 12, France has been paying higher interest rates on its loans than Greece. On the morning of August 26, French bank shares plunged: Société Générale lost 6.31% of its value and BNP Paribas 5.75%.

However, the opposition parties do not seem convinced. Despite Bayrou's efforts, no political consensus was formed. The Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the radical Left accused the prime minister of artificially dramatizing the situation and declared that his party would vote against the government. So did the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen – the second largest opposition bloc in Parliament – which called on President Macron to dissolve Parliament and call early elections. The president, however, appears to have ruled out this possibility, according to recent statements he made to Paris Match magazine. Even if the Bayrou government falls, the Constitution allows him to appoint a new prime minister without resorting to the ballot box.

Bairu is experienced, with a history of skillful maneuvering, but he is now walking a tightrope. To stay in power, he needs a majority of the deputies present on September 8. However, even moderate parties that previously supported him, such as the Socialists, now seem to be withdrawing their support and the numbers do not seem to be coming out.

The Economist, however, speaks of a political gamble and a risky move by Bayrou to expose the opposition parties, asking them to take a position on a national question of major importance, regarding the increase in debt and deficit that poses a threat to the country.