After the overnight strikes against Iran, President Trump declared the action a “success” on Sunday, stating that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities had been “totally and permanently destroyed.” At a press conference on Sunday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also called the dawn airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities a “overwhelming success,” which he said deprived Iran of the ability to develop a nuclear weapon.
But those statements contrast with more cautious assessments from the U.S. and Israeli militaries. The Israeli military's initial analysis showed that the heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility was severely damaged by the U.S. strike on Sunday but was not completely destroyed, according to two Israeli officials familiar with the matter, who said Iran likely moved equipment, including uranium, from the site.
A senior US official acknowledged that the US strike did not destroy the Fordo facility, but it was severely damaged, so it could be considered “eliminated.” He noted that even twelve bunker-busting bombs could not have destroyed the site.
This also shows that the damage assessment by Israeli and US experts is ongoing and no final conclusions have been drawn yet. The officials spoke anonymously about intelligence matters. Of course, it is not the first time that Trump has made statements about something without any basis, but in this case, it is especially difficult to pass judgment immediately.
What is certain is that during the night strikes, the United States targeted three nuclear facilities, including Fordó, where nearly 14 bunker-busting bombs, each weighing 14 tons, were dropped (We wrote more about Fordó and the nature of possible American strikes in this article).
On Sunday, senior Pentagon officials echoed Trump’s success story, but added that a final assessment would take time. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said preliminary assessments showed that all three sites had suffered “severe damage and destruction,” but it was too early to say whether Iran had retained any nuclear capabilities. The Iranians understandably prefer to stress that the U.S. strike failed, but they have said that the damage assessment is still ongoing.
The Israelis' initial assessment was based on Israeli satellite imagery, aerial photographs of the site, and intelligence from the Fordow. New satellite imagery taken by Planet Labs after the US strikes showed damage and likely entry points for US bombs. The imagery shows soil changes and dust at the strike sites.
The Israelis are also examining satellite images from before the strikes, which they say show Iran transporting uranium and equipment from the Fordow facility. Satellite images released by Maxar Technologies showed sixteen trucks near an entrance. Analysis by the Open Source Centre in London suggests Iran may have been preparing for the strike. However, it is unclear what exactly was transported from the facility.
– said Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the Trump administration and a former CIA officer.
