The clear effectiveness of the Russian disinformation machine is demonstrated by the fact that social media has already been flooded with fake news that denies or directly misrepresents the violation of Polish airspace by drones, for example by saying that the drones were not launched by Moscow. According to press reports, the unmanned aircraft destroyed by the Polish Air Force are Russian copies of an Iranian-made drone, the HESA Shahid 136, the Gerberas. These are not the well-known propeller-driven civilian drones weighing a few hundred grams, which both the Russian and Ukrainian sides convert for combat purposes, but unmanned aircraft for military use.

This is practically a “suicide munition”, a precision, remote-controlled missile. It weighs six kilos, can carry two kilos of explosives, has a wingspan of two, is two and a half meters long, and can reach speeds of one hundred and sixty kilometers per hour.

Although the device was originally designed by Iran, Russia has been producing its own version of it since 2022, called Geran-2, which is a real monster with its 200 kilos and 3.5 meters long. Military expert József Kis-Benedek pointed out that the characteristics that would have immediately identified the machines that flew into Poland as Russian-made were removed, but it is obvious that the devices were launched not from Iran, but from Belarus or Russia.

What is the procedure in such a case?

József Kis-Benedek said that the Polish air defense is the strongest and best in Eastern Europe. It is capable of neutralizing this technology, and it did the right thing by shooting down the drones. “This is the right thing to do. In such cases, after very quick identification, it must be shot down immediately if the foreign object enters the airspace and they do not know what it is. Of course, as much as possible, it must be made sure that it is not, for example, a lost private plane, but a real drone,” the expert said.

Hungarian Gripens are serving close to the incident. Index wanted to know whether Hungarian Gripens, which assist in the air defense tasks of the Baltic countries, could be involved in the defense of Polish airspace. The expert said that the Hungarians assist exclusively in the defense of the Baltic states, and would only join the defense of Poland if Warsaw specifically asked them to do so, which is unlikely, because they have enough assets to protect the airspace on their own.

Poland requested the activation of NATO's Article 4

"The military committee - which in this case means the ambassadors of the various NATO member states - will agree to apply Article 4 at the request of the Poles. This article means only consultation, there is no joint action under Article 5, only an exchange of information, after which they will agree on what the joint response to this provocation will be." According to the expert, the Polish ambassador and the head of the military department will inform politicians about what happened and what they are asking from NATO.

According to Kis-Benedek, Warsaw wants to deploy Patriot batteries near the border and around airports, while the country will be equipped with more serious defense. In addition, further tightening of air defense will be implemented in all NATO members, especially in member states bordering Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.

The military expert also said that Warsaw will receive"maximum support from NATO, because this is a rather crude provocation. Of course, we do not know for sure how the Russian drone squadron got into Poland or whether they had weapons."

Did Russia attack directly?

A discourse has already developed this morning about whether it is a case of lost drones or a deliberate Russian provocation. Kis-Benedek is of the opinion that “we will not know for sure from the Russian side, at most they will only say that there was a mistake, because they never usually take responsibility for such things.”

However, the military expert said:"I am in favor of intentionality. In Germany, they are now discussing support for Ukraine. Russia is obviously also monitoring this." 

When asked by Index, the expert confirmed that he believed this was an expansion of gray zone operations towards Poland, and he justified the Russian intention behind it.

It is no secret that most of the aid to Ukraine comes through Poland, but this does not mean that the Russians should attack the Poles. I consider this a very rude provocation on the part of Moscow

– said the expert, who admitted that it is of course also possible that this is a surveillance experiment gone wrong. “We don’t know, but it is possible that the Russians, for example, would have liked to monitor facilities on Polish territory that could be used to support Ukraine.” According to Kis-Benedek, however, this surveillance theory is questioned by the fact that 19 drones are too many for such a task.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has not yet shared with the public that

• accidentally, as a result of electronic interference,
• or directly, with the aim of provocation, Russia attacked NATO territory.

The security policy expert reminded:"These provocations happen quite often from the Russians, this is not a new thing. They just don't always provoke with drones, for example, they have happened with ships, in the northern waters of Poland, and in the case of Sweden and Norway, they often sail into places where they shouldn't," concluded József Kis-Benedek, a security policy and military expert, to our newspaper.