Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure serve a dual purpose: to deprive Russia of a major source of funding for its aggression and to destabilize the socio-political situation in the country's hinterland. According to Forbes, this strategy could lead to social tensions similar to those that emerged in Russia on the eve of the February Revolution of 1917.

Ukraine tried to attack this vulnerable point as early as late 2023, but the Biden administration did not support this strategy at that time, fearing a rise in world oil prices. In the summer of 2025, Ukraine launched a new campaign of attacks on Russian oil refineries and pipelines, and this time Washington no longer opposed such operations. The campaign brought significant results: according to some data, Russia lost 17-20 percent of its oil refining capacity.

This has caused significant fuel shortages and price hikes in Russia, increasing social pressure on the Kremlin as average Russians increasingly feel the consequences of the war.

According to Serhiy Kuzan, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Ukrainian drones are achieving results that sanctions alone could not: while Moscow has found a way to adapt to Western sanctions, it does not yet have reliable protection against Ukrainian drones.

Russian propaganda cannot ignore the lines at gas stations, explaining them by a sudden increase in demand and unexpected repairs at refineries.

Forbes emphasizes that while these bombings alone will not end the war, they could be a step toward it. The paper draws a parallel with the situation between Tsar Nicholas II and World War I, when overstretched fronts and internal shortages made internal unrest as dangerous as external enemies.