BUDAPEST. Beneath a world map inscribed with the words “Together for a Safer World,” a group of men in suits hunched over documents. Among them were Russian President Boris Yeltsin, American President Bill Clinton, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and British Prime Minister John Major.

In Budapest on December 5, 1994, they signed a declaration according to which Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan renounced nuclear weapons and according to which their territorial integrity and existing borders would be respected. Russia and the Western powers also signed it, promising not to use force against the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

However, the text of the Budapest Memorandum was not legally binding, and although several Western states promised security guarantees to Ukraine, it lost its meaning after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale Russian invasion.

After more than thirty years, the future of Ukraine may once again be decided in Budapest - US President Donald Trump on Thursday identified it as the place where he plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks. Although holding the summit in Hungary has been discussed several times, the meeting could also help the weakened Prime Minister Viktor Orbán - and again mean betrayal for Ukraine.

Putin's smile

The American magazine Politico reported on possible peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia in Budapest in August. The White House considered Hungary as a location because of Donald Trump's close relations with Viktor Orbán. Orbán makes no secret of his close ties to the Kremlin and has repeatedly blocked the approval of sanctions against Russia.

For this reason - and because of the tense relations between Kiev and Budapest - the location of the talks could be uncomfortable for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Trump did not mention his participation in the meeting in Budapest this time. Trump wanted to resolve the Ukrainian position during a brief meeting with Zelensky at the White House on Friday.

On the contrary, Viktor Orbán did not hide his joy that the leaders of Russia and the USA could meet in Budapest. “Hungary is an island of peace!” Orbán wrote on the social network X on Thursday, adding that preparations for the peace summit are starting immediately. According to the Hungarian Prime Minister, Budapest is “the only suitable place in Europe for a US-Russia peace summit” due to the long-term “peaceful” leadership. On Friday, Orbán also spoke directly with Putin by phone.

"There are many questions, negotiating teams need to be determined, and so on. Therefore, everything will be done gradually, but the will of the presidents is there, of course. The summit can really take place within two weeks or a little later. There is a general belief that nothing should be postponed," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

A meeting in Budapest – and without Ukrainian representatives – would also be a win for Putin himself, SkyNews comments on the situation."He will be welcomed on EU soil for the first time since the start of the war, despite the ongoing European sanctions against Russia. You can imagine his smile," the television station comments.

"The question is not whether Putin is serious about peace or whether Trump can achieve a ceasefire. The real question is how Europe can ensure that the international order built on human rights institutions does not further disintegrate and that Hungary does not further question Ukraine's reputation on the international stage," Marc Roscoe Loustau, an expert on Eastern European politics at Central European University (CEU), told SME.

According to him, the Union should take proactive steps and speed up Ukraine's EU accession negotiations."The Union should send a message to Hungary that if Orbán continues to act on Putin's orders and behave like his lackey or puppet within the EU, then it will speed up the process of Ukraine's accession to the European Union," the analyst says.

Interference in the election campaign

The Budapest summit talk comes just three days after Orbán met with Trump on Monday for a peace summit on the Gaza Strip."But I'm skeptical that Orbán would have floated the idea of a summit just 48 hours earlier during their meeting in Egypt," Loustau said. Trump often acts impulsively, he said, and his views could change.

Orbán has long been trying to get the American president to Hungary. Such a move could also help him in the election campaign, during which he could show that he is not politically isolated.

Hungarians will likely go to the polls in April, according to a survey by the 21 Research Center agency. Orbán's Fidesz lags behind his opponent Péter Magyar's Tisza movement by 18 percentage points.

However, sources from the Hungarian server 24.hu claim that Trump would not travel to Hungary just for Orbán and that they should rather meet in Washington, which Orbán is planning to visit on November 8.

Although holding a major geopolitical summit in Central Europe would be a political victory for Viktor Orbán, the analyst does not think that it would be able to significantly influence the ongoing election campaign.

"Hungarian voters are very practical and are currently feeling the pinch in their bank accounts and their wallets. When the news of the summit settles in, I don't think they will be thinking about foreign policy, but rather about corruption, inflation and how much they will pay for their groceries," Loustau adds.

The problem is flight, not arrest or sanctions

Hungary may also have problems with Vladimir Putin's arrival in the European Union. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an international arrest warrant for him. However, Viktor Orbán announced in April that his government was leaving the ICC because, according to him, the court in The Hague had turned into a"political body." This was also a reaction to the arrest warrant for war crimes against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who visited Budapest in April.

“However, Hungary is still obliged to respect the ICC statute,” says Loustau. The process of leaving the ICC has only just begun, and Hungary is obliged to comply with the so-called Rome Statute until June 2026. “When Putin enters Hungary, they have an obligation to arrest him,” he adds.

However, the Hungarian government has already announced that Putin is welcome in Budapest."We are a sovereign country. We will receive Putin with respect, host him and provide him with the conditions for negotiations with the American president," Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said at a press conference.

The European Commission also clarified that the current sanctions do not ban Putin or Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov from entering the EU and only concern the freezing of their assets. However, the Russian government special may have a problem - Russian aircraft are banned from entering EU airspace and individual states would have to grant Putin an exemption. However, he could also fly in a roundabout way, for example over Serbia to Hungary.

The Hungarian server 24.hu also notes that Trump came up with the idea of organizing a meeting with Putin probably because he feels that the Russians are finally willing to negotiate and reach an agreement.

It is also questionable whether Ukraine will be involved in direct peace talks. US Vice President J. D. Vance expressed skepticism about a peace deal on Thursday, despite Donald Trump's moves."Right now - despite all our efforts, and we will continue to do so - the Russians and the Ukrainians are simply not at a point where they can make a deal," he added in an interview with Newsmax.