Russia is “planning the use of nuclear weapons” and practising a clash with NATO forces along its tense border with Poland.

The major Zapad 2025 military drill kicked off hours after about 20 Russian drones crossed over into Polish airspace on Thursday. A similar incident on Sunday caused the Romanian air force to scramble.

These were the first direct military engagements with NATO countries since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And Moscow insists it is already engaged in a proxy war with the West.

Now, Russian and Belarusian forces are deploying to practice drone strike, jamming - and nuclear missile - tactics.

Despite being a long-scheduled manoeuvre, it has drawn heightened attention from the West.

Belarus is Russia’s closest ally. It also borders Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly expressed his desire to restore the old Russian Empire of Peter the Great. That would involve annexing these and other eastern NATO nations.

And Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko willingly offered up his territory to Putin in 2022.

Will he do so again?

“Zapad 2025 … has revived an unpleasant European memory—the 2021 drills simulated offensive operations and pre-positioned equipment deployed in Ukraine the following year,” write European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) analysts Vasil Navumau and Kirill Shamiev.

“Although Lukashenko insists he was not involved in the decision to attack Ukraine, he still allowed Russian forces to attack unexpectedly via Belarus.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry noted that the testing will occur in phases, with the first focused on repelling attacks and the second on “restoring the territorial integrity of the Union State and crushing the enemy, including with the participation of a coalition group of forces from friendly states”, according to Reuters.

Nuclear threat

Putin has played the nuclear card many times since his bungled invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

And he shows little sign of letting up.

But the strong man may have little option but to wave his nuclear arsenal about.

Russia’s military has been decimated by Ukrainian defenders.

“Western states treating the drills as a potential threat benefits Moscow by diverting attention away from Ukraine,” argues Dr Ryhor Astapenia of the Chatham House think-tank.

“Given (its) shortages in manpower and equipment, if Russia wants to signal readiness for a wider, longer war it may emphasise nuclear capabilities and Oreshnik missiles during the (Zapad) exercises.

“Otherwise, it is hard to imagine how Russia could project power to the West during the drills if it sends just a few thousand soldiers to Belarus.”

So far, it’s been doing just that.

The Russian Northern Fleet Frigate Admiral Golovko fired a Zircon hypersonic missile in the Arctic Circle’s Barents Sea on Sunday. The missile, known to NATO as the SS-N-33 (N for nuclear-capable), is touted by Moscow as being able to fly approximately 1000km at speeds of Mach 9 (about 11,500km/h).

Ukraine says it has evidence that this missile, with a conventional explosive warhead, was used against its cities for the first time in 2024.

Near Minsk, Belarus is building a secret military base likely intended for the"Oreshnik" missile system, according to satellite imagery. Since 2022, Belarus has upgraded multiple military sites and is now finishing two new bases near Ukraine’s border, just days ahead of the…

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 10, 2025

But further fears of Putin’s nuclear intentions are being fuelled by new building projects in Belarus and the Baltic Sea enclave of Kaliningrad.

Satellite images show a massive new facility being carved out of the landscape near the village of Pavlovka, about 65km south of the capital Minsk. Analysts say the hardened bunkers, revetments and facilities observed there could be used to house Russia’s new Oreshnik ballistic missiles. Like the Zircon, it is designed to carry a choice of nuclear or conventional explosive warheads.

Putin has boasted that its Mach 10 speed makes it “unstoppable”.

Moscow says it deployed the Oreshnik against Ukraine in November last year. It has also signed an agreement with Belarus to deploy launchers on its territory. Thus it being a central theme in this year’s exercises.

Another set of satellite photos shows a new Over The Horizon (OTHR) radar, surveillance, and communications facility being constructed on the border between Poland and Russian Kaliningrad. This sliver of land, left in Russian hands after the breakup of the Soviet Union, has become a major military outpost deep inside NATO territory. From here, long-range S-400 anti-aircraft missiles and Iskander intermediate-range ballistic missiles can reach deep into the heart of Europe.

“Emotional overload”

Moscow has dismissed concerns about its drones breaching sovereign airspace. It also says its military drills are routine practice.

Instead, it accuses the West of being “hostile”.

The state-controlled Tass newsagency reports Putin’s Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisting Moscow has “never threatened anyone”.

“Of course, such exercises always attract attention of the border states,” he said.

“Under normal conditions of constructive, peaceful, and friendly coexistence, representatives of the neighbouring countries always had the opportunity to observe these exercises…

“Now, when Western Europe is taking a hostile position towards us, naturally, this all results in similar emotional overloads from these countries.”

But Latvian Institute of International Affairs director Karlis Bukovskis says scepticism of Moscow’s intentions is well and truly warranted.

“Our trauma goes back to the Hitler-Stalin pact — the secret protocols dividing Europe and the Baltic states — into spheres of influence and spheres of control,” he told German media. “Poland was also divided. After that, the Baltic states were occupied by the Soviet Union.”

Putin insists this Nazi-Soviet pact never happened.

That’s despite the overwhelming documentation detailing its provisions being captured with the fall of Nazi Germany in 1945.

However, most Western analysts do not see this year’s Zapad 2025 as posing a similar threat to NATO as its 2021 incarnation did to Ukraine.

“European governments should treat Zapad 2025 primarily as political theatre,” the ECFR analysts argue. “For leaders Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin, it is a form of ‘iron diplomacy’, a staged escalation to ratchet up the security climate in eastern Europe and influence talks between Moscow, Minsk and Washington.”

And Moscow is embracing that theatre.

The Russian Ministry of Defence initially responded to Poland’s anger at the armed drone incursion with a statement: “No targets on the territory of Poland were planned...nevertheless, we are ready to hold consultations on this matter with Poland’s Ministry of Defence.”

Now, Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov has accused Poland of being “provocative” by “not being ready” to talk.

“This looks like a provocation or a misunderstanding, which the Polish side is not willing to clarify,” Ulyanov stated in a Telegram post overnight.

A matter of trust

“Europeans should not overreact. Zapad drills present scripted, ‘best-case’ scenarios of Russian and Belarusian capabilities that have rarely translated into actual combat performance,” the ECFR analysts state.

They also point to the array of uncrewed ground vehicles, reconnaissance drones, and remote-operated systems hyped during the 2021 event. All but the reconnaissance drones have already been withdrawn from service.

“The gap between Zapad displays and battlefield viability remains wide,” they conclude.

Moscow and Minsk say 13,000 troops will be deployed by Wednesday, Australian time. But they have made the same claim before, even when 100s of thousands of soldiers were in the field.

That’s because any official number over 13,000 triggers the Vienna Document international agreement which allows security inspectors to verify the non-malicious intent of war games.

Zapad 2021 involved well over 200,000 Russian troops. Most of their equipment was conveniently left close to the Ukrainian border. And many soldiers remained housed in Belarusian barracks.

These then crossed the Belarus border and into Ukraine in February 2022.

But Dr Astapenia says there is little in common this year with 2021.

“All states party to the OSCE’s Vienna Document, including Ukraine, have been invited,” he explains. “Belarusian officials are also actively encouraging foreign journalists to attend the drills to draw attention to the regime’s role in regional security.”

“I think the purpose is for Putin to try to show that he is still strong, that the war in Ukraine hasn’t really affected them. But I don’t think that’s the truth,” retired Lieutenant General Lance Landrum told the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

The Lithuanian Geopolitics and Security Studies Centre think-tank says the threat is long-term.

“What we are going to be looking for is whether these troops are going to be staying there after the exercises, whether Russia increases its presence on Belarusian soil, including the infrastructure, and possibly preparing for some scenarios in two, five, seven or 10 years,” its chief, Linas Kojala, told German media.

Eastern Sentry

“Beyond their military value, these drills are used by Russia to intimidate the West, which they do,” argues Dr Astapenia.

Intimidation triggers deterrence.

Now the West wants to prove it hasn’t been intimidated.

“Even without any malicious intent, incidents during the drills could have greater consequences than in the past,” Dr Astapenia warns.

All Eastern NATO states have been reporting regular drone violations of their airspace since the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

In July, two drones flew out of Belarus and into Lithuania, where they crashed.

The Polish and Romanian airspace incursions in recent days are just the latest, and most dramatic, examples.

Aircraft and support crews from France, Germany, Denmark, the UK and other nations over the weekend surged into pre-prepared positions along Europe’s eastern borders. This includes three French Rafale interceptors, two Danish F-16 fighters, and four German Eurofighters. An air warfare destroyer has also been ordered into the eastern Baltic Sea.

NATO says the snap drill practices member states’ abilities to respond quickly and collectively to an air assault on its eastern members.

“Integrated and layered air defences, both air and ground-based, will be key as we move forward,” its top military commander, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, told media.

“Although the immediacy of our focus is on Poland, this situation transcends the borders of one nation. What affects one ally affects us all. This is an issue that impacts all of the alliance, and we will treat it as such…

“I envision it is going to cover the entire eastern flank of the alliance, from the High North to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean—anywhere that we might see a threat from the Russians.”

And despite their scripted nature, wargames themselves can be revealing.

“Now we have to look and see what exactly they do in this exercise, because we have a lot of historical intelligence on previous exercises, and we can compare that,” argues Landrum.