On Tuesday morning, despite the US announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the sound of missiles continued to echo in the skies of the Middle East. The agreement announced by President Donald Trump on Monday evening has not yet translated into an actual calm on the ground. However, if this agreement holds, a new phase of political and military evaluation will begin in what has become known as the Twelve-Day War, the most violent round between the two sides in four decades.

But the fundamental question remains: Who emerged victorious from this war? Israel, which initiated the strike, or Iran, which held firm and continued to respond until the final moments?

The answer is neither direct nor mathematical. Rather, it requires deconstructing the dimensions of the military battle, measuring its political repercussions, and examining the gains and setbacks it left behind for each side.

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In purely military terms, Israel has undoubtedly scored strong points. Since dawn on June 13, it launched intensive airstrikes, in cooperation with the United States, on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Ten prominent nuclear scientists were assassinated in targeted operations, and the nuclear infrastructure suffered damage described as extensive but repairable within months to two years.

In addition, Israel demonstrated an unprecedented level of preparedness in coordinating airstrikes and carrying out precision assassinations deep inside Iran. Politically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gained explicit American support, having previously complained about the chilly relationship with Washington under Biden, and then succeeded in shifting the Trump administration toward a military solution rather than a diplomatic path.

However, this victory is temporary. Despite the losses, Iran has not been defeated. It has succeeded in launching more than 250 missiles at Israel within days, including missiles that struck vital facilities in Haifa and the Dimona area.

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Iran, for its part, suffered a severe blow to its nuclear infrastructure and network of scientists. It also suffered serious security breaches that allowed Mossad to carry out precise operations within its territory. But the Iranian regime did not collapse, nor did it submit. Rather, it continued its military response until the last moment, directing its missiles at American and Israeli bases, thus strengthening its image as an unsupervised party.

But the aftermath of the war is much more difficult. This round revealed the fragility of Iran's security structure and confirmed that its intelligence agencies, particularly the Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Security's intelligence apparatus, require a comprehensive restructuring. Assassinations and infiltrations occurred without deterrence, indicating the depth of the internal security crisis.

Most seriously, the airstrikes exposed the weakness of Iran's air defenses, which failed to repel the raids despite its extensive radar network. They also revealed the lack of a modern air force that would limit Israeli aircraft's assault on every inch of the country. This is pushing decision-makers in Tehran today toward two unavoidable options: massive spending on modernizing air defenses and aviation, in cooperation with Russia and China, and rebuilding the deterrence system on modern technological foundations, not just through regional proxies, which have been neutralized for months, specifically Hezbollah.

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What can be said after this escalation is that neither side achieved a complete victory. Israel temporarily weakened the Iranian nuclear program, but did not end it. Iran lost important positions, but demonstrated its ability to survive and respond, forcing Israel and the United States to limit themselves to a limited round.

In the short term, Israel may achieve a tactical victory, but the long term will depend on Iran's ability to recover and learn from the lessons learned. Trump, however, may be the biggest political winner, projecting an image of a strong president capable of managing and ending the war.

Ultimately, the war cannot be considered truly over. Rather, it may have been temporarily suspended until the next round. From now until then, true victory will be measured by each side's ability to prepare for what comes after the ceasefire—politically, militarily, and security-wise.