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A week is a long time in geopolitics, to paraphrase Harold Wilson. Yesterday, after a flurry of angry rhetoric and empty threats over the past few months, the US president imposed sanctions on Russia – and painful ones at that. The US has targeted the two largest Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, with measures that, if implemented strictly, will seriously damage Moscow’s export revenues.
It was (another) busy week – with the first cracks in the ceasefire in Gaza, new shockwaves from the awkward moves to implement the Monroe Doctrine in Latin America, the No Kings rallies across the United States, the demolition of part of the White House, etc.
→ As usual, you can find me at [email protected] and Bluesky (@yanpal.bsky.social) to continue the conversation.
REVERSAL ON REVERSAL. I just felt like it was the right time, Trump said, answering reporters' questions about the sanctions on Russia, with a jubilant Mark Rutte, NATO secretary general, at his side. Trump added that he hoped the war would end and that the sanctions would not be in place for long. Announcing the measure, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said that now was the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire. He called the two companies the twin engines of the Russian war machine.
Also yesterday, the Wall Street Journal revealedthat the Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine's use of certain long-range missiles supplied by Western allies, allowing Kiev to step up attacks on targets inside Russia. Ukraine on Tuesday used a British Storm Shadow missile to strike a Russian explosives and rocket fuel production facility in Bryansk. This US move, as reported in the report, followed the recent transfer of authority to support such attacks from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the top commander of US forces in Europe, General Alex Grinkevich, who also serves as NATO commander.
Nothing foreshadowed these developments at the end of last week. Let's recall the basics: last Thursday, a day before Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the White House, the Russian president called his American counterpart, they talked for two and a half hours and agreed to meet in Budapest (because, presumably, their previous meeting in Alaska went so well).
The next day, Zelensky faced a Trump in Washington that was very reminiscent of the February nightmare: the US president pressed him in a strong tone – again – to cede to Russia territory in the Donbass that it has failed to conquer militarily for almost four years. Trump also ruled out providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, despite repeatedly leaving the possibility open in previous weeks. It was something Putin had warned against – and which Trump said they discussed in their phone call.
After this confrontation, it would have been a relief for Kiev to hear on Tuesday that the US president’s meeting with Putin in Budapest had been postponed indefinitely. After a conversation between the two foreign ministers, Marco Rubio concluded – who would have expected it? – that Moscow had not backed down one inch from its maximalist demands for an end to the hostilities. (Sergey Lavrov confirmed Russia’s insistence on regime change, saying that an immediate ceasefire would mean that most of Ukraine would remain under Nazi control.)
I don't want to go to a meeting that's going to be a waste of time, Trump said on Tuesday. The next day, the sanctions were announced. Let's hope he sticks with them as long as Putin doesn't suspend hostilities - no matter what he whispers to him on their next phone call.
BIBISITTERS FOR A CEASEFIRE. First, Trump himself visited Israel. Vice President J. D. Vance followed the day before yesterday. Then, we learned that it's Marco Rubio's turn.
According to a report in the New York Times on Monday, American officials have said they are increasingly concerned that Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, could dismantle the U.S.-brokered [Gaza] deal. Indicative of the obstacles facing the implementation of the Trump Plan is a vote in the Knesset—on the day of Van’s arrival—on a bill to annex the West Bank (a measure, however, that Netanyahu opposes).
The dispatch of members of the US government one after another to rein in Netanyahu and the extremists in his cabinet led the Economist's always witty Middle East correspondent to be inspired by this particular pun – and to imagine a future scenario where the US Secretary of Agriculture finds herself in Jerusalem in a state of confusion, discussing the disarmament of Hamas.
Speaking of which, the Palestinian extremist group has continued to show reluctance to lay down its arms. Speaking to Reuters on Friday, Hamas political bureau member Mohammed Nazal said that the group intends to maintain security control in Gaza during an unspecified transitional period. Nazal also said he could not commit to Hamas disarming. The group, he said, is ready for a ceasefire of up to five years to rebuild Gaza, with its stance thereafter determined by whether the Palestinians have been given the prospect of statehood.
Trump replied yesterday, via Truth Social, that many of America’s allies in the Middle East had told him they would welcome the opportunity, at my request, to go into Gaza with strong forces and “crush Hamas” if it continued to violate the agreement. And he warned, in his signature style, that if it did not comply, the end of Hamas would be FAST, BRAKES AND SHOULDER!
On Sunday, two Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, prompting a new wave of Israeli air strikes. Both sides, however, avoided escalation, allowing the ceasefire to survive this first test.
There will be others.
ARGENTINA FIRST! Meanwhile, in the (Western) Hemisphere, which Trump considers his backyard, his willingness to support his anarcho-capitalist friend and Argentine president Javier Milley – with the not inconsiderable sum of 40 billion dollars – has begun to turn into a real political headache.
The United States, of course, has a long history of providing financial support to emerging economies. However, beyond the Treasury Department's credit line and private sector involvement in the bailout, this is the first time that taxpayer money has been used to directly intervene in the foreign exchange market – and to strengthen the value of the peso, one of the most volatile currencies in the world. The intervention, estimated to have reached $400 million, failed to stop the peso's slide.
Undeterred, Trump also suggested this week that the United States buy beef from Argentina to support the Latin American country’s economy (and, supposedly, to lower soaring prices for American consumers). The idea drew a strong backlash from American cattle ranchers.
National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall said Monday that the plan only creates chaos at a critical time of year for American cattle producers while doing nothing to reduce supermarket prices.
Woodall also referred to the deeply unbalanced trade relationship between the two countries, noting that Argentina has sold $801 million worth of beef to the US since 2020, compared to US exports to Argentina of just $7 million.
Trump's inspiration was so unfortunate that it even woke up members—if only one member—of the Republican majority in the Senate. Deb Fisher, a senator from Nebraska, expressed her deep concerns about the prospect of beef imports from Argentina via X.
TWO PRESIDENTS & A MURDERED FISHERMAN. But the President of Peace also has other issues in Latin America, such as the campaign to blow up various small boats in the Caribbean, which he conveniently calls mine-boats and the dead as unscrupulous drug traffickers. This completely illegal policy, which is supposed to target the Maduro regime of Venezuela, last Sunday led to a resurgence of tensions between Washington and the country that is one of its most stable allies in the region: Colombia. Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused the United States of murdering a lifelong fisherman in mid-September – and in Colombian waters. Trump, visibly remorseful, responded that Petro is not doing enough to crack down on smuggling and that he is himself a major drug trafficker, while threatening to reduce economic aid to Colombia and raise tariffs.
BREAKING DOWN THE WHITE HOUSE. It’s not just Argentina or the news that Trump plans to compensate himself with hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars for his suffering at the hands of federal prosecutors (see Eloquent Numbers): it was also the start of work this week on the new White House banquet hall that shows that the president’s political reflexes seem to have become rusty (or, alternatively, he simply doesn’t care what the public thinks anymore). The image of the demolition of the East Wing, which houses the First Lady’s office, among other things, was the most viral in recent days, and gave his political opponents plenty of fodder to attack him.
Among other things, widely circulated footage of Trump promising that the work would not touch the existing structure. Some reported that the 8,300-square-meter gold-plated banquet hall. is being built without seeking approval and funding from Congress – almost certainly violating the Anti-Deficiency Act of 1884. (The project, which has already ballooned from initial estimates and is expected to cost $250 million, will be financed by private Trump supporters, who are not known, each of whom will contribute at least $20 million.) Others focused on the president’s priorities, while hundreds of thousands of government employees remain unpaid due to the shutdown and millions face huge increases in their health insurance premiums. And many were content with the symbolism.
Characteristic was the post by David Axelrod, the architect of Barack Obama's political career. Commenting on an image of the demolition, Axelrod wrote that it is a metaphor for a broader, reckless destruction. The banquet hall that will be built there will be a flamboyant monument to vanity, corruption and excess. For anyone who has worked in the White House or is interested in its rich history, it is a punch in the stomach.
THE SHUTDOWN IS HOLDING UP WELL. Speaking of this detail, the suspension of much of the federal government, it is hopefully entering its 23rd day today, and there is no light anywhere on the horizon. Public opinion increasingly seems to consider Trump and his partyresponsible for the impasse. Nevertheless, Republicans in Congress have completely handed over the reins to the White House, both in terms of managing spending during the suspension and on the negotiating front with Democrats. One theory about the outcome of the shutdown is that, once the pain of the shutdown begins to be felt more widely, Trump will capitulate, calling the defeat a triumph, without any attempt to demonstrate bipartisan consensus.
An estimated 7 million Americans participated in more than 2,500 demonstrations in all 50 states under the slogan No Kings, last Saturday in the United States. The marches were overwhelmingly peaceful, effectively belying the fear-mongering of Republicans, who days earlier had been talking about anti-American hate rallies, where Antifa, fanatical Marxists and Hamas supporters would star.
Trump, for his part, appeared to get the message and promised to listen to the protesters' basic demands. Good? In fact, he chose to show his respect for the right to protest by posting a video, created with artificial intelligence, in which he appears wearing a crown on his head inside a fighter jet, emptying feces onto the gathered crowds. Asked about the video, House Speaker Mike Johnson praised Trump's ability to use social media– and then returned forcefully to the issue of how bloodthirsty and ruthless Democrats are.
$230 MILLION This is the amount Trump (as an individual) will claim from the Justice Department as compensation for the investigations against him in previous years. It's interesting, because I'm the one who will decide, right? he said the day before yesterday, commenting on (and essentially confirming) the relevant report in the New York Times. I don't think I need to write anything more.
Like much of Trump’s nine months in office, the past week has been a rollercoaster of Ukraine politics. Trump seemed to believe he could use the momentum of the Gaza deal to make significant progress in Ukraine, and he was preparing to increase pressure on Russia in conjunction with Zelensky’s visit on Friday. The phone call with Putin on Thursday led Trump to believe that a deal was possible without having to impose new sanctions or provide Ukraine with more sophisticated weapons. But, as with previous communications between Putin and the Trump team, there was a misunderstanding. This time, thanks to Rubio’s call with Lavrov, both sides realized it, and Americans recognized that a summit would not make any progress. With the new sanctions, combined with those of the EU, there now appears to be a greater determination to block Russian energy exports. If the Trump administration shows a willingness to strictly enforce sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, then Putin will face more difficult economic choices in the coming months. So instead of the potential fiasco we were heading for a few days ago (a Trump-Putin meeting in an EU capital with little chance of progress), we ended up with Trump taking unusually serious steps to pressure Russia.
❗Here you can watch the interview of real estate peacemakers, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, on 60 Minutes
❗Emma Green in the New Yorker delves into the Trump administration's campaign against higher education
❗(Moderately conservative) David Brooks writes in the Atlantic that the US urgently needs a mass movement in defense of democracy, without which it risks sinking into authoritarianism for decades
❗The obituaryof the East Wing of the White House, erected in 1902 under Theodore Roosevelt, only to be demolished by Donald Trump
❗ Politico examines the prosecution of John Bolton and compares it to other cases of mishandling classified documents (such as the one against Trump).
