China is tightening restrictions on the export of components necessary for Ukrainian drone production. Attempts by Ukrainian companies to import components through other countries, in particular, through Poland and the Baltic countries, are also being blocked. The founder of the"Reactive Mail" organization, military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi, in an interview with UNIAN, told how the introduction of restrictions by China could affect the situation on the front, and how ready we are for such tests.

How can such actions by China harm Ukrainian defense?

China advocated a ban on drone deliveries to Ukraine. It also included commercial drones, in particular,"Mavics". The delivery point was Poland, where the"firmware" information was changed so that they could not be used in Ukraine. Ukrainian hackers"pour" other firmware there to use these drones from the point of view of electronic warfare.

Now we are talking more about spare parts for FPV drones. We have some attempts to localize production, that is, to increase the share of domestic components and materials, but FPV drones, which are used in large quantities on the front, are all, in particular, with engines and batteries of Chinese production. We have production of these elements, but in microscopic quantities. If we completely cut off supplies to Ukraine through third countries or in some other way, this poses a great threat to us. Where will we be able to buy them then? It is difficult to say. I am not sure that somewhere in the EU countries, the USA there is production in such quantities to satisfy our needs.

In addition, we need to understand that products from China are much cheaper than those from the US and Europe. Even if we find a source to purchase these components, it will make the products at least double or triple in price for us.

For example, the Pentagon signed a contract with the American concern Raytheon for the supply of the Coyote unmanned aerial system, we are talking about strike and reconnaissance drones worth over 5 billion dollars. And our coalition allies have provided us with 5 billion euros for the production of drones. American, European drones can become a replacement, but they will be much more expensive for us.

The question here is, is the same mirror story happening for Russia? I doubt that China will cut supplies to Russia.

According to world publications, China, on the contrary, has significantly increased supplies of components for the production of drones to Russia, which allows the aggressor country to increase the number of drones despite sanctions.

This is not excluded. Therefore, such restrictions by China could become a big problem for us due to the lack of artillery ammunition, which the allies cannot provide us with. Add to this the lack of personnel, as well as the fact that we do not have as much aviation as we would like, that is, we cannot make as many sorties and strikes as the Russians do.

There was information that Ukrainian manufacturers had already started making batteries for drones. To what extent could this reduce our dependence on Chinese supplies?

Again, the issue is the localization of production. We say that we have made, say, three batteries for a drone, but we need to make 300 thousand. Volumes are the main problem. We are already making frames for drones, electronics, batteries, but I have not heard that engines are being produced in Ukraine.

If we consider the most pessimistic scenario from the"all is lost" series - that we will not be able to circumvent the Chinese bans, what consequences will this have for the front?

There is no"all is lost" situation. We have European allies, but we must understand that then we will be talking about a higher cost of drones. In China, the cost of labor is very low, they have no problems with ecology there - if you have waste, then pour it into the river and no one will say anything. In Europe, this will not work, because all environmental standards must be met there, there is social protection for all workers, in particular, payment of medical insurance. Therefore, Europe will be able to cover our needs, but the issue of delivery time and the cost of drones. If the cost of a drone is now, roughly speaking, $3,000, then it can increase to $5,000. And this is a problem, because we will have to persuade allies to buy these drones.

If we destroy a thousand enemies on the front line per day, then half of them are using drones. We can use about 5 thousand FPV drones per day. If this number of drones decreases, let's say, to a thousand, then the number of enemies we will destroy per day will drop to 100. And here the question arises - who will dispose of another 400, which we should work on with drones? This means that they will be able to go to our trenches, that is, these are infantry battles at close range. If earlier the occupiers were destroyed 5 km from our trenches, now they are destroyed 100 meters away or directly in battles. And this is a much greater load, first of all, on our infantry, which we already lack.

If we talk about long-range drones, then the situation could be just as complicated?

Here the story is a little different, because these modifications of drones use two-stroke or four-stroke engines, which we are able to produce ourselves and buy from our allies. And if a long-range drone costs from 2 to 4 million hryvnias, then the difference in the price of the engine for such an amount is not so noticeable. If we can use up to 7 thousand drones per day, then this figure for long-range ones is radically lower - up to 100 pieces, a maximum of 200. Therefore, there are not such serious problems here both in terms of finances and in terms of components.

Could the talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping lead to China becoming a more neutral country in the war between Russia and Ukraine? And will we"slip through" these restrictions?

We must understand that China is a communist country, which is a dictatorship, and there is no talk of any democracy there. Therefore, Putin is closer in spirit to them than Trump. The US president can put pressure with sanctions. But the question is whether Trump will have enough strength of mind and desire, political will to do this. In particular, to impose sanctions on Russian companies, and perhaps on Chinese ones as well.