French Prime Minister François Bayrou's power play backfires. His government collapses. Left-wing populists put pressure on Macron. What happens next?

France's minority government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou has collapsed. The cabinet resoundingly lost a vote of confidence in the National Assembly. 364 MPs voted against the government, while only 194 expressed confidence.

Bayrou must now submit the government's resignation to President Emmanuel Macron. The move is expected on Tuesday. The vote was not about the presidency. Nevertheless, the process is also a setback for Macron.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder of the left-wing populist party La France Insoumise (LFI), immediately called for the president's resignation. On X, Mélenchon wrote that Bayrou had fallen. Macron must also go.

Bayrou's downfall is likely to push the euro zone's second-largest economy, after Germany, even further into crisis. The 74-year-old was the fourth head of a minority government under Macron in less than two years. Bayrou took over from conservative politician Michel Barnier less than a year ago.

Bayrou had linked the vote with a commitment to austerity. Shortly before his ouster, he once again campaigned for his austerity budget in dramatic terms in the National Assembly."You have the power to overthrow the government, but you do not have the power to erase reality," he said in his government statement."The country's survival is at stake," he added.

France is heavily indebted and needs to get its finances under control. Bayrou's budget plan called for cuts of almost €44 billion for the coming year. He also advocated abolishing two public holidays. The announcement met with widespread public opposition.

New Prime Minister or new parliamentary chamber?

Macron is now under pressure. The presidential palace announced on the evening after the vote that Macron would receive Bayrou on Tuesday to accept his government's resignation."The president will appoint a new prime minister in the coming days," the statement read.

Macron has likely already considered several options over the past two weeks. But the difficulty is that neither his centrist camp nor the left-wing alliance nor Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists have a majority of their own in the lower house. It's still unclear with whom Macron could form a stable government.

A second option is also theoretically conceivable: As he did after the defeat of his centrist forces in last year's European elections, Macron could dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections. The goal would then be to create clearer majorities. However, it is unclear whether voters in France would vote significantly differently after just under a year. It is quite possible that even after a new election, the parliamentary chamber would be similarly divided as it is now – making governing difficult. Cross-party coalitions are uncommon in France.

A new election would also pose the risk for Macron that Le Pen's right-wing nationalists or the left-wing coalition would gain an absolute majority. The head of state would then be de facto forced to appoint a prime minister from their camp. While the prime minister currently remains somewhat in the shadow of the president, Macron would have to relinquish power in such a case. This would result in a so-called cohabitation. Macron has repeatedly emphasized in recent months that he does not want to dissolve parliament again. But he has not categorically ruled it out either.

Macron will now look to the domestic market under pressure

The renewed failure of a government is fatal for France, not only because it threatens political chaos and stagnation. The heavily indebted country urgently needs to consolidate its austerity course and pass a budget for the coming year. Should the political situation remain unstable for a longer period, there is also a risk of a loss of confidence in the markets, which would place an additional strain on France's finances.

Despite the international crises, Macron will now focus his attention on domestic affairs for the time being. This means he's likely to take a more relaxed approach to the international stage in the coming days. Berlin and Brussels will have to prepare for less initiative.

The pressure on the head of state is likely to increase again with the fall of the government. The left-wing LFI already wants to depose him and call for early presidential elections. The vote isn't actually scheduled until 2027. The right-wing nationalists are also pushing for elections – either by dissolving the National Assembly or for Macron's resignation.

After two terms in office, Macron cannot run for president again in 2027. It remains unclear who his centrist forces will put forward as his successor. Many in the moderate camp fear that Le Pen could now win the election after several failed attempts. However, due to ongoing legal proceedings, it is still unclear whether Le Pen will even be able to run.