It’s been an active weekend for conspiracy theorists, Nicolás Maduro propagandists, and wishful thinkers. After Donald Trump truthed a strange warning saying that Venezuelan airspace should be closed on Saturday, all alarms went off about the imminence of U.S. land strikes on Venezuelan soil. The tea leaves of the past few days had been leading us to this moment: the announcement of the Cartel de los Soles FTO designation for November 24th, Trump’s comment that he was willing to speak to Maduro, the designation itself, the confirmation that a call took place before the designation, the airspace message that cleared almost 25% of Maiquetía International Airport’s flight boards, and an episode of aircraft-tracking euphoria that seemed to show the plane Maduro frequently uses running for Brazilian hills via Santa Elena de Uairén. It’s like watching a reality show via telegrams.
All kinds of theories on negotiations have been sprouting everywhere. And of course they have—it’s clear that there’s now a very direct channel of communication between DC and Caracas. Trump himself just confirmed that he talked to Maduro, and he also commented on his Truth post about the closure of Venezuelan airspace, saying it had no connection to imminent airstrikes.
What we’re seeing is that whatever form these negotiations take (if any at all), they seem grounded in two premises:
- Maduro is using them to buy time, hoping to avoid or wear out Trump’s intention to attack.
- Trump is using them to drag time to avoid an attack hoping that the pressure will wear out Maduro and the people around him.
Donald Trump will find a worthy opponent in Nicolás Maduro when it comes to making deadly things boring.
The truth is that neither of them has many options. We’ve said before in our Political Risk Report that there is no deal Trump can offer right now that would make Maduro leave. There’s no off-ramp that guarantees he’ll remain safe and out of jail—not abroad, and not inside Venezuela even if he were to hand power to one of his own. So Maduro is cornered into braving the storm and hoping for the best. As we’ve said before, his strategy is to hunker down and call Trump’s bluff.
This leaves Trump with little options too. He will likely be forced to move on to land strikes to see if they change the game: to see if Maduro’s priorities are altered, and if the possibility of him taking a deal with no guarantees appears, because, for instance, he’s now fearing for his life. Our bet, however, is that simply taking out an empanada stand in Güiria won’t do the trick.
It’s likely that this situation will drag on for a while. The Venezuelan standoff is a game in which each side tries to annoy or bore the hell out of the other until someone caves. It’s a game at which Maduro excels—and the only way to win against him is not to play.
