Supporters and opponents of Jair Bolsonaro are gathered in front of the Federal Police headquarters after his arrest.

1:16 The preventive detention of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), ordered by Supreme Federal Court (STF) minister Alexandre de Moraes, on the morning of Saturday, the 22nd, will have consequences for the current landscape of Brazilian politics and makes the chance of house arrest during the serving of his sentence more remote, according to columnists at Estadão.

Raquel Landim

Columnist Raquel Landim published information stating that the incident involving the tampering with the electronic monitoring equipment was an attempt by Jair Bolsonaro to break his ankle bracelet using a heat device. The tampering was quickly detected by the electronic monitoring system, and the ankle bracelet is now with forensic experts.

"If there was any doubt that pre-trial detention was necessary, there is no longer. Legal experts consulted by this column unanimously affirm that it was an attempted escape just days before the definitive arrest warrant for the attempted coup d'état was issued," she wrote.

Eliane Cantanhêde

According to columnist Eliane Cantanhêde, Alexandre de Moraes' decision that resulted in Bolsonaro's preventive detention, one day after Congressman Alexandre Ramagem was added to Interpol's list, can be defined as an"anti-defection action".

“The arrest of Jair Messias Bolsonaro, which is not (yet) for the conviction for attempted coup d'état, was authorized by Moraes after putting the pieces of the puzzle together into a clear picture: Bolsonaro intended to flee the country, just like the deputies Eduardo, now a defendant, Ramagem and Carla Zambelli, already convicted,” she wrote.

According to the columnist,"Bolsonarism's agonizing decline and the countdown to the final judgment of the coup plot triggered a 'every man for himself' scenario," but the Federal Police and Moraes were watching to prevent an escape.

Francisco Leali

Columnist Francisco Leali believes that Bolsonaro is not an ordinary prisoner, for whom the monitoring service would take several days to investigate the damaged ankle bracelet. He"is the captain elected president who, faced with electoral defeat in 2022, devised a plan to remain in office. Therefore, it is not surprising that the police authorities were monitoring everything the entire time," he considered.

The columnist also says that the preventive detention will impact the country's political reality and "anticipate the effects and reactions of a definitive imprisonment." "We will know how and to what extent Bolsonaro's supporters will react. Then, when the time comes, which is very near, for the start of the sentence, the fact that Bolsonaro is imprisoned will no longer be a surprise," he analyzed.

Bolsonaro's early arrest eliminates chance of house arrest, despite narrative of persecution.

2:00 For Ricardo Corrêa, Bolsonaro's confession of using a soldering iron to burn the case of his electronic ankle monitor is a"melancholy final image" for the former president. According to the columnist, before the video was released,"allies, including right-wing governors, had already publicly defended him from what they called 'an unjust imprisonment.' All that remained was the embarrassment."

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These allies discovered, “the hard way, that they were once again used by the Bolsonaro family,” analyzes Corrêa, who includes among them governors Tarcísio de Freitas, Ratinho Jr., and Romeu Zema, as well as “more astute” politicians like Gilberto Kassab and Arthur Lira.

According to the columnist, these surprised colleagues"will have to bear the burden of supporting, whether intentional or not, yet another illegal act by the former president."

Carolina Brígido

In her analysis, Carolina Brígido suggested that Alexandre de Moraes preferred to arrest Bolsonaro to avoid further trauma to the Supreme Court. She recalled that, in June, congresswoman Carla Zambelli fled Brazil to avoid arrest and, just this week, congressman Alexandre Ramagem was seen in Miami for the same purpose.

“In both cases, the defendants were convicted by the court without the final judgment having been issued. In other words, they had the right to remain free until the appeals to which they were entitled were judged. They took advantage of their last moments of freedom to flee,” the columnist explained. According to her, Moraes took a step forward to prevent further discrediting of the Supreme Court.

Fabiano Lana

Columnist Fabiano Lana analyzed the consequences of pre-trial detention in the current political landscape and with a view to the 2026 elections."The smoke hasn't cleared yet, but it's possible to identify some immediate losers and winners," he wrote. According to Lana, there is a defeat for the Bolsonaro movement and a dilemma for the Bolsonaro family.

“Either they insist on a solo movement, aiming to maintain popular support, or they unite with other right-wing political forces. If they run alone, dividing the opposition, the biggest beneficiary will be President Lula, in the race for the election. In any case, the path to be chosen, without a doubt, is to try to transform Bolsonaro into a martyr and, with that, try to add millions to the movement,” he analyzed.

Carlos Pereira

Carlos Pereira assessed Jair Bolsonaro's preventive detention from a historical and global perspective."The central point is this: democracies find it extremely difficult to judge and impose prison sentences on heads of the Executive branch. When they manage to do so, they demonstrate institutional strength—not weakness," he wrote.

According to the columnist,"if Brazil continues to conduct this process with rigor, transparency, and due process, it will send a clear message to the world: not even presidents are above the law. And this, far from signaling instability, is a rare demonstration of democratic maturity."