What is the status of Iran's nuclear program after the US attacks? The regime may have removed enriched uranium in time. IAEA chief Grossi calls for clarity and advocates diplomacy.

On Sunday night, the United States attacked the Iranian nuclear facility in Fordow with bunker-busting bombs. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates significant damage to the uranium enrichment facility, which is located deep inside a mountain.

The US Air Force therefore equipped its B-2 stealth bombers with the most powerful bunker-busting bombs it possesses, the GBU-57s. These bombs were presumably used for the first time. The bombs are said to be capable of detonating up to 60 meters deep. Iran's uranium centrifuges are believed to be located up to 90 meters deep in the mountain, according to reports. However, there is no independent confirmation of this.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi is an expert on nuclear facilities. He is in constant communication with his inspectors. Some of them are still in Iran. Where exactly they are and what insights they are receiving are currently unknown.

Nuclear researcher Georg Steinhauser, Vienna University of Technology, on the consequences for the environment and the nuclear program following attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities

Highly sensitive uranium centrifuges

What is known, and what Grossi considers sufficient for a somewhat meaningful extrapolation, is that the explosive force of the US bombs was sufficient to cause significant damage to the uranium centrifuges, which are highly sensitive to vibrations. Even at a depth of 90 meters in the middle of the mountain, the vibrations after the bombs were likely to have been significant. His conclusion is therefore that everything needed for enriching bomb-grade material in Fordo is likely to have been largely destroyed.

This assessment is not absolute. Grossi emphasizes:"At the moment, no one—not even the IAEA—is in a position to fully assess the damage at the Fordo nuclear facility."

Grossi refers to a letter from Iran

However, Grossi's remarks a few sentences earlier in his statement to the IAEA Board of Governors, which the Director General had convened for an emergency meeting, caused a stir. The"Board," the political steering body of the "Agency," as the IAEA calls it internally, should please take note of a letter sent to it by the Iranian Foreign Minister on June 13. That was the day the Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities began. Iran's Foreign Minister had written that"special measures will be taken to protect nuclear equipment and materials." "End of quote," says Grossi, audibly struggling for the correct wording.

The Director General leaves unsaid what this might have meant. The obvious idea is that Iran could have hidden enriched material in time to protect it from the later, much more severe US attacks. This could primarily involve the 400 kilograms of uranium, which is likely already enriched to 60 percent. This uranium could be highly enriched to 90 percent, a bomb-grade level, relatively quickly.

IAEA calls for inspection of the facilities

Grossi hasn't confirmed this. However, he does note that he immediately and clearly pointed out to the Iranian Foreign Minister, in accordance with the formal requirements, that such uranium shipments would, of course, have to be reported to the IAEA, in accordance with the current inspection agreement between the nuclear agency and Iran. Reported, like many other things that Iran has failed to do—a criticism Grossi has made in recent months.

This is why the IAEA Director General is now again demanding that Iran allow an inspection. The IAEA inspectors are in Iran, and the current location of Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium needs to be clarified. A planned relocation of the material may have apparently been the reason for the surprisingly swift US attack, according to Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The reaction of the Iranian representative on the sidelines of the IAEA's special session in Vienna does not sound as if Iran will soon approach the IAEA inspectors in the country with a new openness. As expected, he criticized the attacks on Iranian facilities as an"irreparable blow" to the goals of the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. There are rumors that Iran wants to withdraw from the treaty, but this was not explicitly stated in Vienna.

"Political courage to step back from the abyss"

The overall situation remains worrying. Grossi, the diplomat and top global nuclear safety watchdog, urges the pursuit of diplomacy in this"grave" conflict. He offers himself as a mediator and is even prepared to travel to Iran immediately:"There is still a path for diplomacy," says Grossi."We must pursue it, otherwise violence and destruction could reach unimaginable proportions."

The Director General, who can't exercise political power and can only rely on the power of his words, urges us to"muster political courage" and "step back from the brink." This has never been more important than now, Grossi said. This is especially true in an organization and before a Board of Governors"in which we may not agree on the causes and consequences of the current crisis." The IAEA has 180 member states worldwide. North Korea has opted out, but otherwise almost everyone is involved—even those waging war against each other.

Perhaps that's why Grossi adds the point that the international IAEA community has also succeeded in"ensuring and preserving nuclear security" in another military conflict. He doesn't specify which conflict it is. But everyone knows: It's about Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, and it's about Ukraine's nuclear power plants. Both countries belong to the IAEA. As do Iran, Israel, and the USA.