Details of US-Russian negotiations on Ukraine have been leaked to Bloomberg, and according to the American newspaper, the planned agreement already includes the actual borders of Ukraine.

According to this, Putin demands that Ukraine hand over the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions still controlled by Kiev, that is, the remainder of Donbass that the Russian army has not yet been able to capture during the invasion that has been ongoing since 2022.

In exchange for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and recognition of Crimea's belonging to Russia, Russia promises to halt its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, meaning that the current front line there would be frozen.

After Trump gave Putin 10 days to reach an agreement to end the war, the Russian president hosted Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, at the Kremlin on Wednesday. Although the Russian government had previously said that Putin would not bow to Trump's ultimatum, both sides spoke positively about the meeting, and Trump said afterwards that

“Significant progress has been made”,

which he claims he has also informed some of his European allies about. According to the plans, a personal Putin-Trump summit could take place soon, according to press reports even next week - certainly without the Ukrainians for now.

Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, has now outlined the outline of the proposed agreement. According to it, the proposed agreement aims to freeze the war, achieve a ceasefire, and then prepare for technical-level negotiations for a final peace settlement.

As part of the agreement, according to Bloomberg, the Russians would demand that Zelensky withdraw Ukrainian troops from the Kiev-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, i.e. hand over the entirety of Donbass without a fight.

A quick background: The majority of Luhansk Oblast is already under Russian control, but there is still very intense fighting in Donbas. Although Russian territorial gains and advances are still relatively small or very slow, the ongoing war is increasingly in their favor. On the southeastern front of Donbas, Ukrainians have been forced to fight in a series of crisis situations in recent months. After the fall of Vuhledar and Konstantinivka, Russian troops may soon surround Pokrovsk, and then move against the two most important cities of the Ukrainian defense in Donbas, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

However, Zelensky - this is our assessment - could find himself in a very difficult situation in this case. The Ukrainian constitution also prohibits the renunciation of territories, and after the voluntary transfer of territory, the president's power could be shaken. However, if he rejects the deal, he could once again face Trump in addition to Putin, and he could be held responsible for further bloodshed, while it cannot be ruled out that Ukraine could lose much of the Donbas in the fight until the winter.

There are many unknowns or points to be discussed later in the potential ceasefire plan. It is not yet known whether the parties would completely freeze the current front line in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, what would happen to the small area occupied by the Russians in the north near Sumy, and whether there would be a promise to end the increasingly intense missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities - not to mention broader foreign policy issues such as sanctions against Russia or Ukraine's prospects for joining NATO and the EU.

The official negotiations on the latter issues would presumably start after the ceasefire comes into effect. However, the Polish Onet wrote on Thursday that, according to their information, this was also on the agenda during the preliminary US-Russian talks. They believe that after the territorial agreement, most of the sanctions would be lifted, but the United States has not yet promised Moscow that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.

However, the proposal reportedly includes a clause that effectively recognizes the territories occupied by the Russians by postponing the decision on the issue for 49 or 99 years.

Neither the White House nor the Kremlin responded to Bloomberg's request for comment on the draft agreement, and Ukraine has not commented on the alleged proposals. The newspaper understands that Washington is also trying to gain the support of Ukraine and its European allies, but the agreement, as they write, is far from certain.

However, there are several signs that intense discussions are taking place in the background.

Putin spoke by phone on Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among others, as well as the leaders of other BRICS member states, including South Africa, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Belarus, to inform them of the meeting with Witkoff.

Zelensky also held phone talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other European leaders. While official statements on these talks did not say much more than that Europe remains fully supportive of Ukraine and that the Ukrainian president highly values Donald Trump's mediation efforts, Donald Tusk hinted on Friday that a deal was close in the air.

The Polish Prime Minister said after his conversation with Zelensky: “There are certain signs and I feel that the freezing of the conflict – I’m not talking about ending the war, but just the freezing of the conflict – may happen sooner rather than later.”