Blue jacket, red tie, and a"Make America Great Again" cap – this is how US President Donald Trump watched the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities in the White House's Situation Room. Looking at the photos, in which Trump displays a decidedly determined expression, many people may well ask themselves: Does this man know what he's doing? Or has he now lit the fuse that will ultimately trigger a major global conflagration?

Risk of escalation increased with US entry

"We have now reached a point where the situation has become almost uncontrollable for the US because further developments depend on how Iran reacts now," analyzes Middle East expert Jan Busse of the Bundeswehr University Munich.

Conflict researcher Nicole Deitelhoff puts it this way: "At the moment, Trump is presenting it as saying: 'Wonderful, the Iranian nuclear program has been destroyed, so the job is done, we're going home.' That will certainly not be the case."

Experts see three possible scenarios

Iran has announced consequences following the US attacks. The two experts see three possible scenarios. The first would be for Iran to take direct action against US forces stationed in the Middle East with ballistic missiles or drones. The US military has around 40,000 troops stationed in the Middle East. The bases in Bahrain and Qatar on the Persian Gulf, for example, are not far from Iran as the crow flies."Due to their geographical proximity, these troops would also be significantly easier for Iran to reach than Israel," explains Busse.

If that were to happen and US soldiers were killed, it would be hard to imagine Trump letting the matter rest. Rather, he might be forced to retaliate, which would draw the US deeper into the war.

The second scenario would be that Iran does not attack US troops itself, but leaves this to allied militias, for example, in Iraq or Yemen. In this case, it might be conceivable that Trump could forgo a retaliatory strike without losing face.

A third scenario would be that Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz, through which, according to estimates, up to a quarter of global oil production is shipped."That would have massive consequences for the oil price and the global economy," says Busse. However, Deitelhoff does not consider this the most plausible scenario,"because it would also pose too many risks from Iran's perspective, for example with regard to China, one of the last states to speak out in favor of Iran in the UN Security Council."

Doubts about the destruction of Iran's nuclear program

Busse also points out that, according to the often well-informed platform Amwaj.media, there are indications that the US gave Iran advance warning before the attacks – namely that only the nuclear facilities would be attacked, but that the US did not seek to further escalate the conflict. A large part of Trump's supporters – the so-called MAGA ("Make America Great Again") wing – is radically opposed to US involvement in distant conflicts, and Trump himself consistently emphasized during his election campaign that he wanted to end wars, not start new ones.

In the current case, however, he was presented with a fait accompli by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu."We are seeing a changed relationship between Israel and the US," Deitelhoff analyzes. Trump now faced the choice of either doing nothing and risking Israel's inability to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program because it simply doesn't have the bunker-busting bombs required to do so—or intervening. Netanyahu effectively took the cards out of Trump's hand, Deitelhoff says."That's a masterpiece of power politics by Netanyahu, extremely clever—you have to give him credit for that."

However, both Deitelhoff and Busse emphasize that it is by no means certain that the Iranian nuclear program has truly been destroyed. Moreover, Busse argues that the current situation could encourage Iran to pursue the atomic bomb even more, because otherwise it would not feel safe.

How important is Trump's view of Europe?"Zero point zero"

How great is the danger of the conflict escalating into a major war that could ultimately affect Germany? "There's no reason to fear that we'll be drawn into such a war," Deitelhoff is convinced."Of course, it's possible that Germany will continue to supply weapons to Israel, but I consider it out of the question that we'll become an active party to the war. Conversely, however, it's also true that Germany has virtually no diplomatic means to influence this war." Trump lashed out after Germany, France, and Great Britain had just spoken with the Iranian foreign minister to initiate new negotiations."This shows how much importance the US attaches to its European allies: none at all—zero point zero," Deitelhoff said."Europe is virtually paralyzed in this conflict."

Busse also believes that the war will primarily be limited to the Middle East region. However, things would look different if the Iranian regime were to be overthrown:"Then we could be dealing with a failed state there, posing massive security risks, including for Europe."

German-Iranian author and orientalist Navid Kermani also fears chaos in this case: "Iran is a country where 45 percent of the people have a mother tongue other than Persian," Kermani explains to the dpa."It's a multi-ethnic state. One only has to look at Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Libya to see the dangers this poses."