Overview Logo
Article Main Image

Expert gives most likely prediction for Israel-Iran conflict

DELFI

Lithuania

Thursday, June 19


Alternative Takes

The World's Current Take

Israeli Perspective

Neutral Reporting


When asked for what purpose Israel carried out this attack, the interviewee voiced two most prominent ones.

"Maybe you can think about what the Israeli regime is and what the entire region looks like in general. There are several powers in the region: Iran, Saudi Arabia, which wants to have Muslim leadership, Turkey, which is growing in ambitions, then there are the interests of the USA and Israel. And in principle, the USA and Israel cannot fully realize their interests because Iran is a specific regime with very clear political ambitions, but also ideologically diverse lines. <...>

There is also a line of deterrence, because the regime is Islamist. The US and Israel have clearly declared that they do not want to see such a regime. Because relations with the US have been damaged since the 1979 revolution. So, it has been very clearly declared that that regime should not exist. So the regime itself has its own deterrence strategy,” I. Koreivaitė told the Žinių radio program “Dienos kulaimas”.

The interviewee reiterated that both the US and Israel would like the Iranian regime to simply not exist.

"If we pay attention to this at the beginning, then we can move on to what Israel declared - different goals for the attacks were declared. One was to stop the progress of the nuclear program, and it was added that the regime itself must be removed," she said.

A lecturer at the Vilnius University Institute of Political Science and Law claimed on the Žinių Radio program"Question of the Day" that removing the central government figure will not change Iran.

"This is an Islamist democracy, as they declare, there are many centers of power. Even those people we are talking about, who are"removed" during Israeli attacks, these are key military figures, but they are more of a function. <...> They can be replaced, not indefinitely, if Israel selects new commanders, because it will be increasingly difficult, it has disrupted the activities of the army, we can have no doubt about that. But I do not think that even the removal of the supreme leader would mean the end of the regime. Because he is elected from the council of experts - they will elect another one," said I. Koreivaitė, an interviewee for Žinių radio.

The expert reiterated that the Iranian regime was created in such a way that it would have many heads and would be extremely difficult to destroy.

"That regime must change from below, there must be some kind of people's power and initiative to overthrow it. <...> And society was already very strongly opposed to this regime, because Iran is constantly shaken by protests. <...> The opposition was strong, especially in the last few years when the economic situation has deteriorated significantly. In Tehran, there was even no electricity for several days a week, the average salary is very low, and everything is very expensive.

But I think that Iranians are very united as a nation, they think of themselves as a nation. And if there is an attempt against the nation, which Israel did by attacking Iranian scientists, this is a particularly sensitive topic in Iranian society, also by bombing the civilian sector... I think that the nation will not want to be torn apart by something from the outside. Now is definitely not the time when there will be attempts to get rid of the current regime,” I. Koreivaitė, a lecturer at the VU TSPMI, shared her insights on the Žinių Radio program “Dienos kulais”.

She also said that even if the Iranian regime were to be overthrown in the distant future, she could not imagine that the new government would satisfy the West.

"But perhaps there will be some compromise options. <...> It is likely that if we manage to somehow overthrow that regime, as I said, not during the bombing, but sometime later, how much its repressive mechanisms for suppressing internal protests will be weakened is another question," said I. Koreivaitė.

A lecturer at the Vilnius University Institute of Nuclear Research stated on the Žinių Radio program that Israel cannot even damage all of Iran's uranium enrichment bases.

"What Israel can do alone is to damage the above-ground civilian energy installations. But it cannot damage the underground infrastructure. <...> I can trust that it is said that Israel cannot do it alone. Maybe this bombing of nuclear facilities in Iran can incite the US that there is some kind of free way and then join in and finish this nuclear program. Because the US is characterized by a hyper-reaction to the Iranian nuclear program.

And the diplomatic path is that US President Donald Trump gave 60 days. You can think about the fact that when the nuclear agreement with Iran was in place in 2015, it took 20 months. There was more patience then and then an agreement was reached on 3.6 percent. uranium enrichment. And Iran adhered to that until the US withdrew from the agreement. And until it threatened EU countries that if they cooperate with Iran, the US would not cooperate with them. Until that happened, Iran adhered to those instructions. And then, of course, it reviewed this agreement and moved on to further uranium enrichment,” expert I. Koreivaitė told the Žinių radio program “Dienos kulisas”.

She also claimed that Israel, through cooperation with the US, is clearly a much stronger military power than Iran.

"There is an obvious asymmetry of power here. What Iran now hopes for is that the US will not intervene and that it will create enough damage for the negotiations to continue. Because D. Trump entered these negotiations saying that there cannot be any nuclear program at all, not even a civilian one, which fundamentally violates Iranian law," the VU TSPMI lecturer told Žinių radio.

When asked to share possible predictions for this war, I. Koreivaitė said that Iran cannot continue military actions for very long.

"Initially it was said that it would take weeks, but now it is known that a large part of the ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed. And the missile arsenal itself is not infinite. And at least in terms of numbers, the attacks on Israeli territory have decreased."

"It seems to me that Iran cannot continue this type of attack for very long," the interviewee said about the possible scenario.

Get the full experience in the app

Scroll the Globe, Pick a Country, See their News

International stories that aren't found anywhere else.

Global News, Local Perspective

50 countries, 150 news sites, 500 articles a day.

Don’t Miss what Gets Missed

Explore international stories overlooked by American media.

Unfiltered, Uncensored, Unbiased

Articles are translated to English so you get a unique view into their world.

Apple App Store Badge