The 48-hour deadline

After Paetongtarn sent a clear signal requesting the Interior Ministry be returned to Pheu Thai, the proposed reshuffle included offering Bhumjaithai control of the Ministry of Public Health and another Prime Minister’s Office position. Bhumjaithai was given 48 hours to respond, with a deadline set for 3:00 pm on Thursday, June 19.

A few hours after this request, Bhumjaithai made it clear that it would not accept the terms. The party insisted that it would not relinquish the Interior Ministry and stated its readiness to exit the government if the demands were unmet.

Thaksin’s clear stance

This situation signals that Thaksin Shinawatra has made the decision to break with Bhumjaithai, pushing the party into opposition. Calculations show that even without Bhumjaithai’s 69 MPs, Pheu Thai still has enough support in the House of Representatives to maintain a working majority and pursue its key agenda.

The next step would be to reshape the coalition as Bhumjaithai’s eight ministerial seats are taken off the table. This could lead to another round of negotiations among coalition partners to redistribute ministerial quotas and adjust the power balance within the government.

Thaksin targets the “270 Government”

According to the strategy of Thaksin, the next move is to “draw in” opposition votes to bolster the government’s numbers, with the ultimate goal of forming a “270-seat government” to ensure maximum stability.

Currently, there are 495 MPs in the House of Representatives. To pass legislation, a majority vote (at least 248 votes) is required.

Originally, the government coalition (11 parties) held 324 votes. However, if Bhumjaithai is removed from the equation (losing 69 votes), the coalition will consist of 10 parties, reducing the government’s votes to 255.

This breakdown includes: Pheu Thai at 142 votes, United Thai Nation (36), Klatham (26), Democrat (25), Chartthaipattana (10), Prachachat (10), Chart Pattana (3), Thai Ruamphalang (2), Thai Liberal (1) and New Democracy (1).

Therefore, with the government coalition now just 7 votes above the majority threshold, the focus is on the votes the government can still bring in. The target for a “270-seat government” includes MPs who have previously declared their intent to switch sides. These include:

• Thai Progress Party: 1 vote from Chaiyamphawan Munpianjitt, a Bangkok MP.
• People's Party: 1 vote from Krit Chevathamanon, an MP from Chonburi.
• Palang Pracharath Party: 1 vote from Kanchana Jangkhwa, an MP from Chaiyaphum, who announced her move to Klatham Party.

In addition to this, there is a strategy to “absorb more votes” by negotiating for 9 additional votes from Palang Pracharath and 3 votes from Thai Sang Thai.

An important condition in this equation is to secure the 36 votes from United Thai Nation (UTN), which is currently divided into two factions. The goal is to consolidate these votes, particularly the 18 votes from the faction of Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, and Akanat Promphan, the Minister of Industry and the party’s Secretary-General.

Opposition regrouping

The opposition bloc, originally holding 171 seats, is likely to grow as Bhumjaithai’s 69 seats are added to their ranks, pushing the opposition total to 237 seats. However, tensions remain in the opposition, especially within Santi Promphat ’s faction from Palang Pracharath, who could complicate the dynamics.

In addition, the alignment of former Democrat Party figures like Suthep Thaugsuban could further strengthen the opposition's case, particularly as they use personal networks to pull additional MPs from UTN and Thai Sang Thai into the fold.

Looking ahead

The House of Representatives will open its session on July 3, and the political landscape may very well reach a breaking point. If Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai cannot resolve their differences, we could see Bhumjaithai solidify its position in the opposition. Upcoming debates, such as the 2026 Budget Bill, will become major battlegrounds as the coalition recalibrates.

Further, issues like the Thai-Cambodian border dispute and the entertainment complex bill, which includes provisions for casinos, could escalate tensions, especially with Bhumjaithai’s continuing involvement in the Senate vote scandal.