It's not the economy, stupid, James Carville might advise Javier Milei, the opposite of what the strategist suggested to Bill Clinton during the 1992 presidential campaign. At least for now, and although the feeling that these are hard times is spreading, the majority of Argentines perceive that the President is putting things right after the disaster he inherited. There's no jubilation over the drop in inflation, but it's an achievement that is being recognized and that, perhaps, will lead to a successful run at the polls in the country's key districts. So what? In the more reserved public opinion polls handled at the top of the Casa Rosada, a certain weariness with the presidential style is beginning to be reflected. The data has become a dilemma. How to manage the situation in the face of a leader who becomes irate when the issue is raised?
"Except for the fanatics, people no longer celebrate cursing. We're running out of resources," acknowledges with concern a daily interlocutor of the libertarian lion. The matter would be less serious if it didn't coincide with a moment of extreme tension with the opposition, not only with Kirchnerism—which has been hoping from day one for a traumatic interruption of its mandate—but with sectors that served the interests of the ruling party and supported its most hampered initiatives in Congress, even those they didn't fully agree with, in order to give it the tools of governability.
Support always came from the provinces, with governors urging and even forcing representatives and senators to vote a certain way. This government even achieved the miracle of certain legislators voting one way and, a few days later, changing their vote simply through a call from their provinces. It happened in the defense of vetoes. Milei seems to have a short memory with them.
This week, the day before the vote on a package of laws that complicate fiscal balance, the head of state repaid them with this phrase:"They want to destroy the government. Their intention is to break everything." He placed all the leaders on an equal footing. Osvaldo Jaldo would be equivalent to Axel Kicillof, or Rogelio Frigerio to Gildo Insfrán. Or Hugo Passalacqua would be synonymous with Sergio Ziliotto. Is it true that a high-ranking official, after Milei's statements, contacted half a dozen governors that same day to apologize?
It was too late for tears. No one budged from their position. On Thursday, the Senate approved a 7.2% pension increase, which also includes raising the bonus for those earning the minimum pension to $110,000 and an extension of the retirement moratorium so that those who lack the required years of contributions can retire. The Senate also passed the law declaring a disability emergency and gave preliminary approval to two bills promoted by the governors to increase provincial resources. This set of initiatives paints a storm on Luis Caputo's horizon.
Milei accelerates her attack against Victoria Villarruel
That morning, Milei met with his ministers. He hinted that they were headed for a parliamentary defeat, but tried to downplay the situation. As he left, he told one of them:"I have Plan A, B, C, and, if necessary, Plan Z." His team is divided over how to negotiate with the governors because it conflicts with the electoral strategy. Karina Milei and the Menem brothers on one side; Guillermo Francos and Santiago Caputo on the other. The former are more hardline.
The last attempt to prevent the opposition's victory was made by Santiago Caputo. For the first time in months, the guru contacted Victoria Villarruel to ask her not to preside over the session: he recorded an audio shortly before 2:00 PM, when the senators had already convened. The vice president told her advisors. But she assured them that she hadn't even listened to the content of the message. "She doesn't recognize Santiago as an interlocutor. For her, the link to the Casa Rosada is Karina," they claim.
Villarruel entered the chamber after the opposition had already secured a quorum. Hours later, images of her friendly conversations with the leader of the Kirchnerist faction, José Mayans, were shared on the cell phones of members of the Executive Branch. Milei loudly and repeatedly insulted her. In the afternoon, in a speech at the Stock Exchange, he called her a"traitor," although he did not mention her by name or surname.
In the vice president's entourage, this singularity (not naming her) is seen as a sign of weakness."Let him do it, let him dare to challenge her, and then Victoria will respond with arguments. If they want hawks, she's the biggest hawk of them all," they assure those around her. The Mileístas accuse her of having operated against her boss in the first months of her administration. They maintain that she flirted with Mauricio Macri and even with Sergio Massa, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and Martín Lousteau"just in case Javier fell." Is this a theory a product of her imagination, or do they have privileged information? No one can get Mileís head off that her partner on the 2023 ticket conspired to take her seat. It's that serious. Villarruel, of course, denies everything. And her anger with the President is growing.
Milei has already announced that she will veto the initiatives approved in Congress. She will wait until the last day to buy time. And, in the meantime, she will begin negotiations with several of the same governors she harassed on Wednesday. The trick is the same as always: they will promise public works and the delivery of resources. "We have no choice; the question is whether they will believe us again," asks one of the officials from the less hardline wing of the government.
The Ministry of Economy had a hectic week. The dollar moved again (rising almost 9% in two weeks) and was closer to 1,300 pesos, the same week in which $4.2 billion in debt was paid, the largest maturity of the year. Reserves are the main cause of concern for the IMF and the market.
The elections are in the middle. Argentina has a history of strong shocks leading up to each election. Those close to"Toto" Caputo say there's no reason for anyone to be alarmed, but they acknowledge that there may be volatility and that some sectors will take advantage of it to create a stir between now and October.
The government, however, as it has since the day it took office, seems to have an unexpected ally: the opposition. The softer party, the PRO (Progressive Party of El Salvador), has practically bowed down to form an alliance in the province. And the tougher party, Kirchnerism, cannot join forces to fully complicate the ruling party's electoral plans. Cristina's arrest, which appeared to be a complication for the Libertarians, now appears to be an additional stroke of luck.
Fuerza Patria was born, a continuation of the Victory Front that brought the Kirchners to power and, in their glory days, led them to fantasize about a constitutional reform that would make them eternal. The defeat against Mauricio Macri in 2015 caused the FpV to mutate into Unión Ciudadana for the 2017 legislative elections, which couldn't prevent another setback, this time by Cristina herself, against Esteban Bullrich. Later, to camouflage the Cristina-Massa-Alberto Fernández alliance that would lead them back to the Casa Rosada, it was renamed Frente de Todos. The latest experiment was called Unión por la Patria, which proposed Massa as president and ended up opening the doors to Milei. Twenty-two years after Néstor Kirchner's victory, Peronism is trying to shed its skin and change the name of its alliance. But there's no magic: the faces are the same.
The spot with which the group that will run in the elections in the province of Buenos Aires presented itself a few days ago does not feature images of its figures. Not Cristina, Axel Kicillof, Sergio Massa, or Máximo. Much less Alberto Fernández, who just broke a record for modern Peronism. Until now, there were leaders investigated for corruption or gender violence; Fernández, the son of a judge who swore honesty and the President who came to put an end to patriarchy, faces harsh charges for both crimes. He was arraigned on Thursday in the Insurance case.
Alberto Fernández accumulates cases for corruption and gender violence.
A week ago, at the Quinta de San Vicente, a group of Massa supporters, Campora supporters, and Kicillof supporters met to discuss the tone of the campaign. Everything was going well until Máximo Kirchner criticized Gabriel Katopodis for a video circulating online in which the Buenos Aires minister, in the town of Salto, encourages them to beat La Cámpora. Máximo also accused Katopodis of having been discretionary in the distribution of public works when he was an official under Alberto Fernández, to the detriment of La Cámpora's districts."I can explain that to you in a minute," Katopodis told him.
Maximus raised his voice. Katopodis shouted at him. They both shouted at each other. Louder and louder.
— What are you accusing me of, idiot?, Katopodis told him.
—Who are you calling an idiot?, replied Máximo.
The two stood up to fight. Calmer people crowded around to separate them.
