The tariffs letter sent by US President Donald Trump to heads of governments and some heads of state around the world earlier this week sent a shockwave through global markets and led to severe uncertainties about the future of world trade and the global economy.

In Thailand, where the standing rate is 36 per cent with the negotiation dateline on 1 August, it was one of the harshest among all trading partners. The public found not just the figure but the content of the letter, a copy of which was sent to then acting PM Suriya Juangroongruangkit and the King, very offensive.

“If for any reason you decide to raise your tariffs [against the US], then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by will be added onto the 36% that we charge,” the beginning of the second paragraph of Trump’s letter sent to both the Thai King and the PM read.

Thai royalists were appalled and outraged. Assoc. Prof. Piti Srisangnam, an economist who lectures in international economics and ASEAN studies at Chulalongkorn University, told the local press that Trump didn’t know “his station in life.”

Sometimes some Thais are deluded, mistakenly believing their country is a great power. They think when the head of a state with the greatest military power and largest market in the world wrote a rude and threatening letter to the Thai King, it means Trump “doesn’t know his station in life.”

Yes, the letter was vulgar and needlessly undiplomatic, but Thailand is just a small country in the world and dozens of other countries received the exact vulgar letter as well. Land-wise, Thailand is smaller than the US state of Texas (Texas 676,587 sq km; Thailand 513,120 sq km).

Yes, Trump is vulgar and uncivilised, acting as if the world is his oyster and still stuck in the colonial era, an era when gunboats were dispatched to blockade ports in the East to open themselves to trade. But the American head of state is not in any lower position than the head of a small state like Thailand. We Thais should not be mistaken into thinking Thailand is superior, because Thailand is not even at the centre of ASEAN (the highest average income per person is Singapore, the largest market is in Indonesia, the most widely spoken language is Bahasa Indonesia). We need to get out of the rock, or “coconut shell” as we say in Thai, and look at the world map.

Even today, Cambodia isn’t afraid of Thailand and is abrasive, although two hundred years ago they were a semi-vassal state of Siam. So why would any Thai expect Trump to be afraid of Thailand?

….

Sombat Boon-ngam-anong, a prominent political activist, asked earlier this week on Facebook how we can understand Trump’s letter. I said I don’t think it’s fair, but it’s something Thais should understand: since the US is the world’s largest market, with immense purchasing power, we, as an export nation, rely more on the US than the US on us.

This tariff crisis saw former PM Thaksin Shinawatra taking charge, however.

Many people have always believed that the real Prime Minister for the past two years was Thaksin. With the Constitutional Court ordering his daughter to temporarily cease her duties, and Thailand facing a serious economic challenge from Trump’s tariffs, we saw Thaksin enter Phitsanulok Mansion this week to discuss matters with the Team Thailand ministers and his daughter’s advisory team.

This might be the last hope that Thailand won’t suffer a fatal economic blow in the clutches of the American eagle. And the fact that Thaksin urgently met relevant ministers before 8 am on Friday speaks volumes about the urgency of the matter. The future of the Thai export economy, the future of the Pheu Thai Party, as well as the future of Thaksin and his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, hang by a thread.

In such a situation, regardless of your or my opinion of Thaksin and the current administration, I can only hope that Team Thailand will succeed in evading the eagle’s claws this time. Because we are on the same boat, and the boat needs a skilled captain and cannot be rudderless in a situation where the storm is raging heavily.

…..

Back to gunboat diplomacy.

Trump’s tax extortion letter reminds me of the “Black Ships” incident, a pivotal event in Japanese history that led to the opening of the country and the end of the feudal and shogunate military dictatorship. The black battleships closed Edo Bay (the old name for Tokyo).

In the early 19th century, Japan was almost completely isolated from the outside world under the rule of the Tokugawa Shogunate. This isolation cut Japan off from trade and contact, except for very limited trade with the Chinese and Dutch in Nagasaki. This closed-door policy lasted for over two centuries, leading to a relatively backward Japan, technology-wise and more. In the mid-19th century, Western powers became more interested in Japan, seeing its potential for trade and as a stopover for ships crossing the Pacific Ocean.

On 8 July 1853, a squadron of four US Navy ships, under the command of Commodore Matthew C. Perry, arrived in Edo Bay. These were large steam-powered warships with dark smoke billowing from their funnels. They were formidable and vastly superior to Japanese ships. The Japanese thus called them “Kurofune” (黒船) or “Black Ships.”

The sight of this powerful fleet made Japan realise that her country was backward and had been living in isolation for too long. Perry issued an ultimatum, demanding that Japan open its doors to trade with the US and refused to leave until Japanese officials met him and received a letter from then US President (Millard Fillmore) demanding Japan open its country. Perry fired warning shots and was ready to use force.

After several months of tension, the Shogunate eventually succumbed to the pressure. Japan and the United States signed the Treaty of Kanagawa in 1854. The arrival of the Black Ships was a turning point in Japanese history. It led to the end of Japan’s 200-year isolation and forced Japan to confront the outside world, and led to domestic political tensions, eventually culminating in the end of the Shogunate in 1868 and the beginning of the Meiji Restoration, which ushered Japan into an era of rapid development and modernisation.

Fast forward to the present, many Japanese products are very competitive in the global market, even though their labour costs are much higher than Chinese. Think of Japanese automobiles, single malt whisky, watches, cameras, the education system, premium fruits, Wagyu beef, and more. Japan adapted well to the nationwide shock of the Black Ships’ arrival.

I can only hope that Thai society will face Trump’s “Black Ships” with understanding, and that this new era of Black Ships will make Thailand adapt, relying less on the American market, looking more towards other countries and new continents to trade, developing greater competitiveness in the global market, and becoming more self-reliant.

This could be another crossroads or a significant turning point for Thai society. Whether it will be for the better or worse depends on how well and how quickly we all adapt.