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The three scenarios that could occur in Venezuela after the US military deployment

La Patilla

Venezuela

Monday, September 1


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Donald Trump ordered a massive military deployment in the Caribbean Sea. Photo: EL TIEMPO Archive

The image may seem uncomfortable, but few metaphors better explain U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela than that of the rope: an invisible bond that unites Venezuela and the rest of the region's nations with Washington, tightening or loosening depending on the White House's interests.

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Washington, acting like a veteran puppeteer pulling the strings to its advantage, holds one end and gradually tightens it, while Caracas, at this juncture, tied to the other, resists with increasingly limited movements.

This is not yet a classic invasion – one of the 20th century – as some are quick to predict, but rather a more complex multidimensional siege involving the military, economic, diplomatic, and symbolic spheres that aims to generate a breaking point.

Of course, Venezuela doesn't quite fit the script that has dictated hemispheric politics for the past century and a half. The rise of Chavismo altered the script 25 years ago, and today, in the 21st century, this country is once again at a turning point, with Donald Trump's administration hardening its stance and the specter of a possible military intervention looming in the air.

At first glance, the country's geographic proximity and location in the heart of the Western Hemisphere, combined with Washington's technological might, might suggest that decisive action is within reach and could occur within days or perhaps weeks, although the reality is more complex.

This is not yet a classic invasion, but rather a more complex multidimensional siege involving the military, economic, diplomatic and symbolic aspects that aims to generate a breaking point.

The message is clear, unlike on other occasions: Washington is deploying information about its actions without major impediments in a media setting that provides detailed information on the military assets being deployed and the geographic locations where they will be deployed. At the same time, the Chavista elite appears to be operating within an increasingly narrow self-promoting space in which their room for maneuver is shrinking daily.

The mechanics of this rope do not seek to strangle immediately, but rather to tighten patiently until the regime perceives an increasingly high cost for staying afloat.

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