On June 1, 2025, Ukraine conducted a unique operation" Web ", during which several Russian airfields were attacked at once. Enemy bombers were hit, which Russia may never recover.
As it says Financial Times, such a"mutilated" Russian air fleet could force the Kremlin to rethink attacks on Ukraine. The operation, which has been planned for 18 months, is likely to have a limited impact on Russia's nuclear capabilities, analysts say. However, it will affect the day-to-day situation in Ukraine.
No less important is the fact that on the eve of the negotiations in Istanbul, Ukraine was able to demonstrate that it is capable of changing the dynamics on the battlefield, forcing Moscow to accept a new reality: now the territories deep in the Russian Federation are vulnerable even without the use of Western weapons.
Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that Ukraine's strikes on Russian airfields"have undoubtedly impaired Russia's ability to strike back." The Kremlin is expected to seek to replace the destroyed planes.
"While this may not be enough to stop the strikes on Ukraine, given the size of the Russian bomber fleet, it showed that continuing the war has a real cost to Russia's status as a military power," says Kofman.
The Financial Times notes that the aircraft damaged and destroyed as a result of the strikes represent about 20% of the Russian long-range aircraft ready for use.
Fabian Hoffmann, a researcher at the University of Oslo, points out that many of the bombers were undergoing maintenance. However, the planes that were hit were among the most operational, making the Russian losses particularly devastating.
Former NATO arms control official William Alberk, now at the Stimson Center, also added that Russia has used these bombers to strike civilian targets in Ukraine, including during the recent mass shelling:
"They caused so much suffering and misery. This (Operation Spiderweb), ed., was a direct way to strike back and try to prevent future attacks."
Now Russia will not only have fewer bombers to attack Ukrainian territory, but will also be forced to consider changing its tactics.
"If Russia is forced to disperse them more for defense, it will directly reduce their ability to deliver massive strikes and suppress Ukrainian air defenses," the publication quotes Alberk as saying.
Impact of the attack on the Russian Federation's nuclear component
The attack on Russian airfields damaged Soviet Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 aircraft. These aircraft are no longer in production. Russia could abandon attempts to replace its lost fleet altogether, but that would take years, perhaps even decades, says William Alberk.
At the same time, the impact of Operation Spiderweb on Russia's nuclear doctrine is likely to be limited. The Russian nuclear triad consists of land-based, sea-based, and air-based launchers. The latter have long been the least relied upon by the Russian Federation, due to their high vulnerability. So a Ukrainian attack could deepen this"shift" towards other carriers.
Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo adds that strategic bombers make up about 10 percent of Russia's strategic nuclear delivery systems, while submarines account for about 30 percent and land-based launchers for about 60 percent.
At the same time, it is noted that the Ukrainian attack became a signal for Moscow that even Russian territories remote from Ukraine can no longer be considered safe.
"There is a feeling among Russians that the sheer size of the country provides strategic depth – a kind of refuge. What the Ukrainians have done is a blow to the very heart of this assumption," Alberk stated.
Operation"Web"
This weekend, Ukrainian special services carried out a striking operation, attacking several airfields in Russia - including the Olenya and Belaya air bases. The operation been preparing for over 1.5 years, said the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed on June 3 that it was 41 enemy aircraft hit Among them are strategic bombers and other types of combat aircraft.
SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk said that it was about bombers Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160 and one A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft.
massive attacks on Ukraine .