Last weekend, Morocco was battered by exceptionally violent weather, combining torrential rain, heavy snowfall, and strong winds. The city of Safi, in particular, was severely affected. The resulting floods have left 37 dead and 14 injured, according to the latest figures.
When contacted by Le360, the General Directorate of Meteorology (DGM) explained that these weather conditions are mainly due to the establishment of an isolated upper-level depression (cut-off) over the national territory, accompanied by a marked mass of cold air in the upper layers of the atmosphere.
This atmospheric situation generated significant instability, while simultaneously promoting a continuous influx of humid air into the lower atmosphere from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, this mechanism contributed to the formation of active convective cloud systems, responsible for sometimes heavy rainfall and significant snowfall in the mountains.
This meteorological situation, characterized by strong variability, has favoured the development of unstable cells, resulting in moderate to locally intense rainfall, particularly observed in Safi on December 14, where 19 mm of rain were recorded in one hour between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m., for a total of around 35 mm in just six hours.
In the mountains, snow depths reached 50 cm in the High and Middle Atlas, with accumulations locally exceeding 80 cm on the peaks of the Middle Atlas.
This instability also resulted in contrasting rainfall totals across the country between 6 a.m. on Sunday, December 14th and 6 a.m. on Monday, December 15th. The highest amounts were recorded in Tetouan (59 mm) and Safi (46 mm). These were followed by Afourer, in the province of Azilal (37 mm), and then Tangier-Port (25 mm).
Significant rainfall totals were recorded in Aïn Leuh, in the province of Ifrane (17 mm), Ouled Abbou, in the province of Berrechid (16 mm) and Tangier (14 mm). The stations of Taliouine, in the province of Taroudant, and Berkane (13 mm), as well as Rabat El Kheir, in the province of Sefrou, and Azgour, in the province of Al Haouz (12 mm), were also affected.
Rainfall totals reached 11 mm in Bouarfa and 10 mm in Taous, in the province of Errachidia, and in Rich, in the province of Midelt. They were 9 mm in Mohammed El Ghazlane, in the province of Zagora, in Sidi Bennour and in Zaïo, in the province of Nador.
Rainfall totals of 8 mm were observed in Aïn Chouair, in the province of Figuig, Afella Ighir, in the province of Tiznit, and in Saïdia. Casablanca recorded 7 mm, compared to 6 mm in Jerada. El Jadida and Béni Mellal each recorded 5 mm.
Rainfall reached 3 mm in Taznakht, in the province of Ouarzazate; in the commune of Ibn Yacoub, in the province of Tata; in Qeissar, in the province of Settat; and in Imintanoute, in the province of Chichaoua. It was limited to 2 mm in Laâyoune Sidi Mellouk, in the province of Taourirt; in Dakhla, in the province of Oued Eddahab; in Bouskoura, in the province of Nouaceur; and in Ouled Ayad, in the province of Fquih Ben Salah. Oujda and Targuist, in the province of Al Hoceima, recorded only 1 mm.
What about the next few days?
Rainy and unsettled conditions are expected to persist until next Wednesday, with significant rainfall and snowfall forecast for central and northern Morocco, according to the DGM (National Meteorological Directorate). A drop in temperatures is also expected, accompanied by moderate to occasionally strong winds in several northern and central regions.
Starting Monday, rain and thunderstorms are forecast, becoming more frequent and intense overnight, particularly over the northern and central plains, the Rif Mountains, the Saïs Plain, the Atlas Mountains, and the Mediterranean coast. Rainfall is also expected in the Souss region, the eastern region, and the northwestern Saharan provinces.
Meanwhile, a significant drop in temperatures is expected, with cold to very cold weather forecast for the mountains, the southeast, and the high plateaus. These conditions will favor snowfall in the High and Middle Atlas Mountains, accompanied by moderate to occasionally strong winds in several regions, notes the DGM (General Directorate of Meteorology).
On Tuesday, the disturbance will reach its maximum intensity. The weather will be highly unstable, marked by locally heavy and abundant thunderstorms, affecting in particular the Atlantic plains, the Rif, the Saïs, the Atlas and its western slopes, the Mediterranean coast as well as the eastern region.
Heavy snowfall, sometimes locally significant, is also expected in the Atlas and Rif mountains, accompanied by strong to occasionally strong winds, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, the northern and central coasts, the Atlas Mountains, the Oriental region, and the southern provinces. Conditions will remain cold to relatively cold, with a risk of frost in mountainous areas.
On Wednesday, the influence of the upper-level depression will persist while gradually shifting eastward, maintaining unstable weather with local rain and thunderstorms over the Atlantic plains north of El Jadida, the Atlas Mountains and their adjacent western plains, the Mediterranean coast, the Rif Mountains and the eastern region.
Snowfall will continue locally in the Atlas and Rif mountains, while the weather will remain relatively cold to cold in the mountains, the southeast and the high plateaus, with relatively strong wind gusts in the northern Atlantic plains, the Atlas and the southern provinces.
Vigilance
From Thursday onwards, a gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected. However, some scattered showers may still affect the eastern Mediterranean coast, the Middle Atlas Mountains, the southeast, and the eastern region, before more stable weather sets in towards the end of the period. Despite this improvement, the weather will remain cold in the mountains, the southeast, and the high plateaus, according to the DGM (General Directorate of Meteorology).
It is recommended to closely monitor weather forecasts and warnings, especially during this period of persistent instability. Caution and the adoption of preventative measures are strongly advised to reduce the risks associated with heavy rainfall, strong winds, and heavy snowfall, according to the DGM (Directorate General of Meteorology).
