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Putin and Netanyahu — a double problem for Trump's diplomacy

Novinite

Bulgaria

Thursday, September 11


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In less than 24 hours, two serious troubles have occurred on two foreign policy fronts that take up the most time and energy of President Donald Trump's administration. The Israeli strike on the Hamas office in Doha and the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace - two serious headaches for the White House and, one might assume, two strong blows to the president's authority, says a BBC analysis.

It is these two conflicts – in Ukraine and in Gaza – that US President Donald Trump has promised to end quickly and decisively.

In each of these cases, leaders he considers natural, if problematic, allies – Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – have seriously hampered the White House’s efforts to establish peace.

The timing of the attack must be considered. The attack on Doha came just two days after the Trump administration presented the latest version of proposals to end the war in Gaza.

Donald Trump said this was Hamas' last chance.

"I have warned Hamas of the consequences of not accepting [these proposals]. This is my final warning, there will be no more!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social network on Sunday.

Hamas' leadership gathered in Doha to discuss a response to these proposals, but Israel decided not to wait.

The blow to Doha not only turned American proposals into dust, but also likely destroyed the entire complex diplomatic architecture around Gaza on which the Trump administration relied.

There is now debate about how and when the US learned of the Israeli strike and whether it could have stopped it. The presence of one of the most important US air bases in the world in Qatar leads many to assume that the US could not have missed the Israeli planes flying towards Doha.

But even if the White House, as many assume, has given Israel the green light, what does that say about Trump's ability to influence Benjamin Netanyahu's actions?

Over the past two years, since the humiliation of October 7, 2023, Israel has demonstrated strength throughout the Middle East, largely with the explicit or tacit approval of the United States.

Israel has established itself as an undisputed regional hegemon, capable of striking distant countries such as Iran or Yemen.

But in the cases of Iran and Yemen, the US also participated in the strikes, and they had common goals with Israel: to stop Houthi attacks on Israel and merchant ships and to destroy Iran's nuclear program.

The attack on Qatar, a key US ally in the region, is another matter entirely.

Donald Trump said he felt"very badly" about Israel's move, saying he found out about it too late to warn Qatar.

"The unilateral strike on the territory of Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States, which has worked very hard and risked much to mediate peace negotiations, serves neither Israel's nor America's goals," Trump wrote on his social network.

This statement is not enough to dispel suspicions of US complicity, but it seems that Trump was indeed angry.

Netanyahu, for his part, tried in every way to emphasize that this was a completely independent decision by Israel.

The well-known American international commentator David Ignatius reminded the Washington Post that the Israelis carried out the operation despite assurances from both the US and Israel that there would be no hunt for Hamas leaders in Qatar.

That these promises were so flagrantly broken will inevitably be seen in the Middle East as evidence of American weakness.

And here is Poland.

Less than a month ago, Trump hosted Putin in Alaska, rolled out the red carpet for the perpetrator of the war in Ukraine, and a few days later told French President Emmanuel Macron that Putin"wants to make a deal for me, as crazy as that sounds."

But not only is the deal not being implemented - on the contrary, since then we have only seen an escalation: more and more record-breaking numbers of drones and missiles participating in Russian strikes on Ukraine, and now the first demonstrative incursion of drones into NATO airspace.

This is not the first time Russian missiles or drones have landed on Polish territory, but they have previously fallen close to the border and, in all likelihood, by accident.

What happened Wednesday night was anything but a coincidence. Polish authorities reported 19 Russian drones in the country's airspace. Some of them penetrated deep into Polish territory.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament that Poland had not been so close to open conflict since World War II.

Russia denies everything, but almost everyone agrees that this was a deliberate attempt by Moscow to test NATO's resolve.

And since the most powerful member of the alliance is the United States, this was a test of Donald Trump's resolve as well. And the American president's apparent reluctance to react – in contrast to his comments on Doha – did not go unnoticed.

"The news that a NATO country had fired on Russian combat units for the first time and shot them down was met with deafening silence by the White House," the Kyiv Post newspaper wrote.

Eventually, a post appeared on the Truth Social network.

"Why is Russia violating Polish airspace with drones? We've arrived!" reads the somewhat ambiguous post on Trump's account.

But the fact that he was initially silent, combined with his reluctance to follow through on his own threats to impose new sanctions on Russia, leaves Ukraine's Western allies with the same question: whose side is Donald Trump really on?

Something may be changing on this issue: European officials and their American counterparts are working on a joint package of new sanctions – the first since Trump returned to the White House.

But NATO members, given the president's previous ambiguous statements about the alliance, want assurances that in the event of a threat to the country's sovereignty, NATO can count on retaliatory action from the United States.

The recently concluded agreement for NATO countries to purchase weapons from the United States for Ukraine and the commitment of alliance members to increase military spending have significantly improved Trump's relations with NATO, and recently he has stopped making such hostile statements about the alliance as he did throughout his first presidential term.

For their part, European countries have generally agreed that they need to do more to strengthen their own defenses. Poland's airspace protection is a good example of this.

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