According to the Financial Times, an agreement may be close. The EU has prepared countermeasures in the event of a no-deal. The agreement reached with Japan is boosting the auto sector on the financial markets.
- Markets are worried about the August 1st deadline for the implementation of the 30% US tariffs on EU goods
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: August 1st is a rather strict deadline
7:13 PM | July 23rd
US-EU Agreement: Trump Gives Final Approval
The framework of the agreement the EU and the US have been working on provides for a base tariff of 15%, which includes the Most Favored Nation (MFN) clause, which sets the tariff at an average of 4.8% for EU-US trade. A European diplomatic source explained that the framework includes some exemptions yet to be defined. The EU could, in turn, reduce its tariffs on US products to the level of the MFN clause or to 0% for certain products. The final decision, it is emphasized, rests with President Donald Trump.
6:42 PM | July 23
If no agreement is reached on tariffs, the EU opens to anti-coercion measures
According to the Financial Times, a US-EU agreement is close (see the story below). But in the event of a no-deal scenario, a large qualified majority has emerged within the 27 member states to activate the anti-coercion instrument. This is what a European diplomatic source explained at the end of the Coreper II meeting, in which the Commission discussed an agreement with the US on 15% tariffs. The Commission, it is further understood, has shared a factsheet on the steps to be taken in preparing for the anti-coercion procedure. At present, the source explains, only France has requested the immediate establishment of the instrument.
6:14 PM | July 23
US and EU near agreement on 15% tariffs
The European Union and the United States are nearing a trade deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports, modeled on the deal Donald Trump reached with Japan. The Financial Times reported this, citing three informed sources, stating that Brussels could therefore accept the so-called reciprocal tariffs to avert the American president's threat to raise them to 30% by August 1. Both sides would waive tariffs on certain products, including aircraft, alcohol, and medical devices, the sources added. Since April, European exporters have been paying an additional 10% tariff on goods destined for the US, these would remain in place, adding to the pre-existing tariffs, which averaged 4.8%.
Europe regains hope for a tariff agreement, Milan closes at +1.3%.
The trade agreement between the United States and Japan, announced surprisingly overnight, has revived hopes for an agreement between Washington and the European Union and boosted European stock markets, which closed higher. US President Donald Trump called the agreement, which includes a 25% to 15% tariff cut for Japan,"enormous." In exchange, Tokyo will invest up to $550 billion in the US and increase imports of American agricultural products, particularly rice. Thus, European markets are once again hoping for an agreement ahead of the August 1 deadline. Milan's FTSE MIB ended up 1.33%, boosted in particular by the auto sector, with Stellantis (+9.14%) and Iveco (+7.27%) benefiting from the inclusion of the automotive sector in the US-Japan agreement, which alone accounts for a quarter of Japanese exports to the US. Purchases also benefited UniCredit (+3.63%) after its record first-half results, while ST (-4.34%) and Banco BPM (-2.47%) slipped at the bottom after the Piazza Gae Aulenti bank withdrew its public offering launched on Piazza Meda yesterday.
6:04 PM | July 23
Bessent: Sino-US pause could be extended for another 90 days
The suspension of tariffs between China and the United States could be extended for another three months to allow negotiations to advance, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV. We are making great progress with China and should be able to move forward on broader issues, which will allow for a significant rebalancing between the United States and China, Bessent explained. Negotiators from the two countries will meet next week in Stockholm, Sweden, for a third round of talks.
3:56 PM | July 23
The auto sector is racing on the financial markets
Auto stocks are rising, tied to tariff negotiations, following the Tokyo trade talks. Stellantis is up 6.59%, Porsche 6.1%, Volkswagen 5.85%, Mercedes 5.47%, BMW 4.66%, and Renault 2.8%. Ferrari is more cautious (+1.54%), less tied to US trade tariffs. The pharmaceutical sector is buoyant, with Lonza (+4.14%) following its quarterly results and full-year earnings estimates. AstraZeneca (+3.1%) and Roche (+2.6%) follow. The defense sector is performing in a mixed order, with Saab (+4.18%) performing strongly, Rheinmetall (+0.88%) positive, and Leonardo (+0.41%) showing little change. Iveco (+5.68%) is also performing strongly, as it prepares to sell its defense division. In the banking sector, Unicredit (+3.19%) experienced a negative impact, while MPS (+3.1%) was buoyant, while Mediobanca (+1.32%), Intesa (+1%), Bper (+0.57%), and Popolare Sondrio (+0.21%) were more cautious. Banco BPM (-2.37%) suffered a negative impact following the withdrawal of Unicredit's takeover bid.
Stock Market: Europe continues to rise with Wall Street and Milan up 1.1%.
The main European stock markets remain positive, albeit below the highs reached this morning. They are being driven by the US-Japan trade agreement, which suggests a possible retaliation from Brussels. Paris leads the way (+1.3%), closely followed by Milan (+1.15%). Madrid (+0.9%), Frankfurt (+0.7%), and London (+0.45%) are more cautious. In New York, both the Dow Jones (+0.63%) and Nasdaq (+0.16%) are rising in the midst of earnings season. The dollar rises above 0.85 euros, settles below 0.74 pounds, and falls to 146.53 yen. Gold was weak (-0.2% to $3,416.14 an ounce), while the spread between 10-year Italian government bonds and German Bunds fell to 83.4 points, with the Italian annual yield rising 0.9 points to 3.44% and the German yield rising 1.9 points to 2.6%. Crude oil was down (WTI -0.4% to $65.08 a barrel), while natural gas declined (-0.38% to €32.99 per MWh), falling below the €33 threshold.
3:53 PM | July 23
Trump: Japan is opening its market to us for the first time.
For the first time, Japan is opening its market to the United States, even to cars, SUVs, trucks, even agriculture and rice, which has always been an absolute no. Donald Trump wrote this in Truth after announcing the trade deal with Tokyo. Japan's free market could be as important a profit driver as the tariffs themselves, and it was achieved only through the power of tariffs. They also agreed to purchase billions of dollars in military and other equipment, the American president emphasized."I will always forgo tariffs if I can convince major countries to OPEN THEIR MARKETS TO THE US," he wrote, explaining that tariffs have great power. Without them, it would be impossible to convince countries to OPEN!!! ZERO DUTIES ALWAYS FOR AMERICA!!!
3:13 PM | July 23
WSJ: Trump fights for Big Tech in tariff negotiations
The Trump administration is using its global trade wars to advance the interests of the US tech industry, seeking to prevent foreign countries from targeting American internet companies, according to the Wall Street Journal. The White House, the newspaper writes, hopes to use the threat of tariffs and access to the US economy to prevent several countries from imposing new taxes, regulations, and tariffs on American tech companies and their products before the August 1 deadline, when higher taxes are scheduled for dozens of trading partners. Measures against American internet giants remain a sticking point in talks with the EU, Brazil, and South Korea, according to sources familiar with the talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with South Korea's trade and finance ministers in Washington on Friday. Trump's abrupt halt to trade talks with Canada last month over the proposed digital services tax underscored his administration's focus on the dominance of the American tech sector. Canada quickly revoked the tax to save trade talks
3:11 PM | July 23
Taiwan's Deputy Prime Minister Returns to the US for Tariff Talks
Taiwanese Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun has returned to the United States for the fourth round of tariff talks. President William Lai said this in a local media report, which said that at the end of the third round of talks with the Donald Trump administration in early July, Cheng said the discussions had reached a crucial point. The United States had announced 32% tariffs on imports from Taiwan in April, before instituting a 90-day tariff freeze to begin discussions, while leaving a base tariff of 10% in place during the period. Speaking at a meeting of the Democratic Progressive Party, of which he is the leader, Lai said Cheng and her team had begun a fourth round of talks in Washington, without specifying their duration. August 1 is the deadline for reaching an agreement, according to the tycoon's warnings. Lai added that the vice premier's mission is to protect the interests of the nation and industry, public health, and food safety. An agreement should ensure balanced trade between the two sides and strengthen bilateral cooperation in areas such as technology and national security, the president added. The parties first discussed tariff levels during a video conference on April 11, followed by three rounds of talks in the United States on May 1, June 25, and July 8.
Car prices surge amid US-Japan tariff deal
The auto sector is growing strongly in Asia and Europe following the US-Japan tariff agreement. The agreement calls for 15% tariffs, compared to the previous 25%, on all goods exported to the US, including cars and components. In Japan, Toyota led the gains on the Nikkei with a 14.3% gain, followed by Honda with a 11.1% gain. South Korean carmaker Hyundai also performed well, up 7.5%. In Europe, the Eurostoxx sector index stood out, rising 3.65%. Among the best performing stocks were Stellantis and Volkswagen, up around 7%, followed by Porsche, BMW, and Mercedes, which gained around 5 percentage points. Sweden's Volvo also performed well (+6%), while Renault posted a 3% gain, also in the wake of first-half sales figures of +1.3% to 1.2 million vehicles. Components also performed well, with Brembo (+3.9%), Valeo (+5.3%) and Forvia (+4.3%) among the best.
1:41 PM | July 23
Stocks rise in Europe following Tokyo-US trade deal: Milan gains 1.3%.
European stock markets rose mid-session following the US-Japan trade deal. Markets are poised to bet on a deal between the US and the EU. Central banks are also under scrutiny, ahead of the ECB meeting, which is expected to leave interest rates unchanged ahead of further cuts in the coming months. Attention is also focused on the Fed, amid tensions between Trump and Powell. On the currency front, the euro remains weak at 1.1725 against the dollar. Milan (+1.3%), Paris (+1.2%), Madrid (+1%), Frankfurt (+0.6%), and London (+0.5%) were up. The main stock markets were supported by the performance of autos (+4%), with Stellantis and Volkswagen (+6%), Porsche (+6.6%), and Mercedes (+5.2%). The banking and insurance sector also performed well (+1%).
Energy purchases (+1.1%), bucking the trend of oil. WTI fell 0.6% to $64.88 a barrel and Brent crude to $68.12. Utilities fell (-0.9%) while gas rose.
1:22 PM | July 23
US pressures EU over Big Tech and pharmaceuticals
Washington is putting pressure on Brussels on Big Tech and the sensitive pharmaceutical sector. This is according to several European sources close to the EU-US negotiations on tariffs. Among the American demands, it is explained, would be the exclusion of US tech companies from certain provisions of European regulations, as well as proposals for regulatory simplification. The discussion revolves around a 15% tariff threshold, but the Commission is concerned that any agreement might not find the necessary consensus among member states and businesses.
1:10 PM | July 23
EU to introduce single list of €93 billion counter-duties starting August 7
The EU Commission has consolidated the two lists of counter-tariffs developed so far—a first list of measures worth €21 billion, a second worth €72 billion—and will submit the countermeasures to member countries in the coming days. The list of counter-tariffs will not be implemented until August 7. This was explained by a spokesperson for the EU Commission, who emphasized that the European executive is working on potential new countermeasures. Negotiations are the priority, but preparations for countermeasures continue in parallel, the spokesperson emphasized. According to rumors, if negotiations were to fail, the EU intends to impose tariffs of 30% on €100 billion worth of US goods.
12:42 PM | July 23
Sefcovic speaks with Lutnick today: intense contacts on tariffs
The EU's primary objective is to reach a negotiated outcome with the United States. Intensive discussions are underway at the technical and political levels. Commissioner Sefcovic will speak with Secretary Lutnick this afternoon, shortly before the Commission briefs EU member states at Coreper, the meeting of the Twenty-seven ambassadors to the EU. This was announced by European Commission Trade Spokesperson Olof Gill.
12:02 PM | July 23
Stock Market: Europe picks up pace: Milan up 2% on autos and banks
European stock markets are gaining further, with the FTSE MIB up 1.8% after a 2% gain. The CAC 40 is up 1.43%, while the DAX is further behind at 0.9%. Following the trade agreement signed overnight between Japan and the US, investors are growing optimism about a possible agreement with Europe. It's precisely the agreement on Japanese trade that's boosting Iveco and Stellantis shares, which are up 7% each on the Milan Stock Exchange. Unicredit is also up 4.6% after its first-half results beat analysts' expectations. Banco BPM is on the opposite end of the spectrum, down 2%. Yesterday, the Piazza Gae Aulenti bank decided to withdraw its public offering launched on the Milan Stock Exchange. ST (-3.23%) performed worse, placing it at the bottom of the list. (Real-time data here).
11:59 AM | July 23
Von der Leyen: We believe in cooperation with Pacific countries
We believe in global competitiveness, and it should benefit everyone. That's why Europe is stepping up cooperation with the CPTPP countries, not only to defend free trade, but also to shape it together. The European Union and the CPTPP countries can lead a meaningful reform of the WTO, so that global trade rules reflect today's challenges and future risks. This was stated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, presenting the outcome of the EU-Japan Summit in Tokyo together with European Council President Antonio Costa and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
10:22 AM | July 23
Ft, the EU must be tough on Trump on tariffs and prepare the bazooka (2)
He should also threaten to go much further, if necessary, the FT insists, arguing that all this would help American voters understand the cost of Trump's trade frenzy. The tycoon will certainly react, but his capacity for escalation is no longer what it once was, the British newspaper further emphasizes, explaining that the threatened 30% tariffs would effectively freeze transatlantic trade, so raising them to 50% or 100% would be less effective, although Trump could retaliate by reneging on commitments to European security or Ukraine. The main issue, however, remains internal: rallying member states behind a common line. Italy and some countries on the eastern flank remain reluctant to confront Trump, but, the editorial emphasizes, after months of caution, Brussels can now argue that good-faith negotiations with Washington have run their course.
10:22 AM | July 23
FT: EU should be tough on Trump on tariffs and prepare the bazooka
The August 1st tariff deadline is a moment of truth for the EU, which, after preparing two counter-tariff packages worth approximately €93 billion, must now demonstrate its willingness to activate its extensive arsenal of non-tariff instruments. The Financial Times writes in an editorial, urging Europe to be tough on Donald Trump and stand ready to unleash its anti-coercion bazooka. Trump is in no rush to reach an agreement with a bloc he appears to despise, the City paper emphasizes, pointing out that the EU's gravest mistake was thinking it could negotiate a traditional agreement. Using the anti-coercion tool, Europe could begin with targeted measures that minimize damage, such as excluding US companies from public procurement, suspending regulatory equivalence for American financial firms, or taxing Big Tech's advertising revenue.
10:20 AM | July 23
Paris, France, and Italy agree on a balanced tariff agreement
The goal of France, and I believe also of Italy, is to reach a balanced agreement that defends the interests of Europeans, sources from the French Ministry of Economy said on the eve of the Franco-Italian Economic Consultation Forum at the Quirinale Palace. The meeting, scheduled for tomorrow in Paris, will be attended by Minister for Enterprise and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, along with French Minister of Economy Eric Lombard and his counterpart in charge of Industry, Marc Ferracci. The sources noted that the negotiations with Washington are currently in the hands of the European Commission, in coordination with the member states. The goal of France, and I believe also of Italy, is to reach a balanced agreement that defends the interests of Europeans, the source stated, adding that if this proves unsuccessful, the Commission is ready to take countermeasures. Yesterday, Ferracci himself called for firmness in Brussels' negotiations with the United States and for a"balanced agreement" between the two blocs.
9:46 AM | July 23
Stock Market: Cars soar with Japan-US deal, Stellantis up 6%
The automotive sector is booming on the stock market following the agreement between Japan and the US on tariffs. The sector, following the Asian market, is up 3.6%. Stellantis (+6%) and Iveco (+5.7%) are soaring on the Milan Stock Exchange. Renault (+3.3%), also in light of sales data, Porsche (+4.6%), Mercedes (+5.5%), and Volkswagen (+4.9%) are also performing well.
9:29 AM | July 23
Stock Market: Europe opens higher, betting on tariff agreement
European stocks opened positively. Markets are betting on a tariff deal, following the agreement reached between Japan and the United States. Central banks' next moves are also under scrutiny, ahead of the ECB meeting and on the Fed front, amid tensions between Trump and Powell. Paris (+1.23%), Frankfurt (+0.85%), and London (+0.45%) opened positively.
9:26 AM | July 23
Stock Market: Asia closes higher on tariff deal, Tokyo soars
Asian stock markets closed higher following the US-Japan trade deal. Central banks' next moves remain in the spotlight, ahead of the ECB meeting and with the Fed under scrutiny due to tensions from Trump and Powell. Tokyo soars (+3.5%). On the currency front, the yen is little changed against the dollar, at 146.92, and against the euro at 172.47. With trading still underway, Hong Kong (+1.2%), Shanghai (+0.1%), Seoul (+0.4%), and Mumbai (+0.3%) are up. Shenzhen is down (-0.3%). On the macroeconomic front, Eurozone consumer confidence is incoming. From the United States, existing home sales and EIA data on crude oil inventories and production are also forthcoming.
8:51 AM | July 23
Von der Leyen in Tokyo: Epochal changes, clarity is needed
We cannot allow ourselves to be shaken by the epochal change we are facing. Or fall once again into the error that the storm will pass. That things will go back to the way they were if only a regional war were to end, or a tariff agreement were reached, or an election went differently next time, because the geopolitical crosscurrents are simply too strong. And the very foundations of our security and prosperity are simply too shaky. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this when receiving an honorary degree from Keio University in Tokyo. We must be clear-eyed about the challenges we face at this historic moment. I am convinced that the period we find ourselves in now—and how we manage it—will define the rest of this century, she emphasized.
Stock Market: Tokyo rises 3.59% following Japan-US trade deal
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is consolidating its gains in the wake of the 15% tariff agreement reached between Japan and the United States, lower than the 25% tariff threatened by US President Donald Trump starting August 1. The Nikkei index is up 3.59%, settling at 41,201.68 points. Auto stocks, targeted by 15% tariffs, are soaring, compared to the feared 25%: Toyota is up 15.2%, Honda is up 11.38%, Subaru is up 18.31%, and Nissan is up 9.07%. Bank stocks are also in the spotlight, given that the agreement provides for $550 billion in Japanese loans and investments in the United States, with Nomura Holding (+4.21%), Mizuho Financial (+5.21%), and Mitsubishi UFJFG (+5%) rising.
