In February 2025, Esmael's Blog predicted that Donald Trump, by attacking Canada with tariffs and trade extremism, could, paradoxically, boost Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil. Five months later, this Saturday (12), Folha de S. Paulo echoes this same thesis in its editorial, confirming our reading of the backstage of power and the geopolitics of the extreme right.

Folha's editorial, titled"Trump's aggression hinders balancing on the right", recognizes that the former US president's trade attack against Brazil — a 50% surcharge on Brazilian products — did not strengthen Jair Bolsonaro or his allies, such as Tarcísio de Freitas, but repositioned Lula as a defender of national sovereignty, with the support of the business community, the political center and even the international community.

In February, we stated bluntly:"Trump resurrects Trudeau in Canada and could boost Lula in Brazil." The parallel was direct. In the neighboring country, Trump's economic attack fueled the recovery of the Liberals, the party of Justin Trudeau and his successor, Mark Carney, who had been weakened until then. The same logic applies to Brazil, with Lula posing as a sovereign leader in the face of blackmail from a foreign power.

The collateral damage—or rather, the political tragedy—falls upon the pro-Bolsonaro right. Bolsonaro, unelectable and increasingly isolated legally, diminishes himself by applauding Trump even when the American directly harms Brazilians. In public, Bolsonaro appears to thank his godfather for imposing brutal tariffs on Brazil, a gesture that shocks even some conservative voters.

And the right-wing pre-candidates? They choked. Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of São Paulo and a Bolsonaro protégé, stumbled when trying to balance loyalty to Bolsonarism with institutional responsibility. First, he blamed Lula. Only later, under pressure, did he address the damage Trump's tariffs would do to the São Paulo economy. The same ambiguity was evident in Romeu Zema (MG) and Ronaldo Caiado (GO), who reacted late, poorly, and with extreme electoral calculations.

The central thesis of the Folha editorial, five months after the analysis by Esmael's Blog, is that this external aggression leaves no room for ambiguity. The moment demands clear positions. Those who omit, prevaricate, or try to please both sides risk losing both sides. The Brazilian right, trapped between toxic Trumpism and repositioned Lulaism, is floundering.

Trump's move backfired. Instead of weakening Lula, it strengthened the Brazilian president as a leader of state. At the same time, it demoralized his most radical allies, subjugated to a foreign agenda that harms the country itself. A chapter in political realism that this blog read before, out of conviction—and now confirmed by the facts.