The last time G7 leaders met in Canada, in 2018, Trump left early after being criticized for tariffs imposed during his first term. Now, trade tensions are much more serious, but the other leaders will try to convince him to focus on other issues, such as countering the military threat posed by Russia, writes Politico.

“They want to talk about tariffs, but Trump will want to talk about how to counter China,” says Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council in Washington.
“Their question will be: How can you ask us to come together against China when we are still trying to deal with the consequences of your tariffs?”

According to the Atlantic Council, the other G7 economies face effective US tariffs of 12–16%, the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Although the UK has signed an interim trade deal with Trump, Germany, France and Italy, EU members are still in the crosshairs. Japan, another G7 member, is also affected due to the large share of auto exports to the US. Tariffs could rise further from July 9, making this summit the last real chance for direct negotiations at the highest level.

"The G7 is a practical and important deadline, but much depends on how much attention the US can devote to this topic, given the rest of the discussions," said a Canadian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"The G7 should stay united"

Changing Trump's stance on tariffs seems impossible, especially now that the revenues generated have started flowing into the US budget. As a result, the summit will not have a joint declaration, but seven separate texts, on topics such as critical materials, artificial intelligence and wildfires.

“The G7 should stay united,” a German official told Politico. “Canada sees things the same way. That’s why we won’t have a joint statement on all issues, but separate documents. And Japan, and Canada, and EU countries have different perspectives.”

Canada remembers all too well that a G6 approach doesn't work: a famous photo from 2018 shows Trump with his arms crossed, surrounded by the other leaders, while Angela Merkel stares at him, her hands resting on the table.

“If the G6 is about uniting against someone, it will backfire on everyone,” Lipsky says. “We saw that in 2018 in Canada. It didn’t help anyone.” And, most importantly: “It will only lead to more fractures and it won’t be in the interest of any country, in the medium or long term.”

If no transatlantic trade deal is reached, the EU tariff is set to rise to 50% on July 9, although some US lawsuits and recent comments suggest that deadline could be delayed. Trump has already doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum and threatened tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper and lumber.

For now, the EU has not retaliated, although it has prepared a package of retaliatory measures worth over 100 billion euros on American goods, it has not yet acted.