A large portion of the television channels in the Arab world in general, and in the Palestinian arena in particular, could compete with the Israeli ones this week in terms of coverage of the debate on the occupation of the Gaza Strip. The issue made headlines, and impressive knowledge was demonstrated regarding the exchange between Netanyahu and Zamir, the division within the government between enthusiastic supporters of the occupation and wavering and sceptical ones, as well as Yair Netanyahu's blunt tweets against the Chief of Staff.

Tensions among the Palestinians are growing over the issue. Dr. Iyad al-Qara, a researcher from Khan Yunis affiliated with Hamas, explains:"70 percent of the Strip has already been occupied, and the Gazans, who are huddled in three small enclaves and have experienced 22 months of heavy fighting, estimate that a full takeover will exacerbate the existing hardship. They expect, among other things, mass arrests, increasing pressure on them to 'emigrate voluntarily,' as well as military clashes and popular clashes that will occur throughout the Strip, even after the occupation is complete. Israel has so far demonstrated its helplessness in all that concerns supplying the needs of the population, and many fear that with full occupation, chaos and deprivation will worsen."

Hamas, for its part, takes the Israeli threat seriously but has no intention of softening its stance, let alone giving up."Most of the Strip is somehow under the full control of Israel, which has penetrated every inch of the region, but has failed to achieve any of its goals. What can it do besides more killing and destruction?" wondered Bassem Naim, a member of the organization's political bureau, on Tuesday. A commander in the military wing who was interviewed anonymously by the daily"A-Sharq Al-Awsat" added: "Hamas forces in the Strip are prepared for a scenario of prolonged fighting that will last for years."

Palestinian journalist Muhammad Dragma: "Recent developments are dramatically deteriorating Israel's international status. With all his moves, Netanyahu is greatly facilitating the Palestinian effort to move toward a state."

On the other hand, as in Israel, there are those on the Palestinian side who claim that the threats of occupation are Netanyahu's"spin," and that if he were truly interested in such a goal, he could have realized it long ago."There is no doubt that there is a gap and tension between the political and security echelons, but the entire discussion currently seems more like a test tube to test the reactions at home and abroad to the idea of occupation," says Dr. Sufyan Abu Zaida, a commentator on Israeli affairs and one of the leaders of the Dahlan camp in Fatah.

*

58 years after it last occupied it, Israel is returning to a completely different reality: over two million people, compared to about 350,000 in 1967, in a completely devastated area. In terms of security, occupation will allow it to severely damage Hamas' military and governmental capabilities, but it will encounter new challenges, in particular guerrilla warfare and terrorism, as happened to the Americans after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. The area will continue to be saturated with weapons and highly motivated by all the organizations, headed by Hamas, and the Strip - like Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan - could become a"jihad arena," attracting Muslim volunteers from all over the world.

A severe impact is also expected in relations with Arab countries. These are already projecting concern and anger regarding the idea of occupation. Jordan is sending signals about the expected deterioration in relations between the two countries; the Saudis are already tired of making it clear that the dream of normalization is fading in light of the ongoing war in Gaza, especially if the entire Strip is occupied; and the most serious threat is coming from Cairo, with which the crisis is deepening and is expressed in the refusal to appoint a new ambassador to Tel Aviv and to accept the new Israeli ambassador to Egypt.

A tangible expression of Egyptian frustration was given this week in particularly harsh words from President al-Sisi, who said:"The war in Gaza no longer has clear goals and does not appear to be aimed at freeing the hostages. It has no logic or justification and has become a campaign of starvation, destruction, and purging the Palestinian issue."

The IDF rushes into the Gaza swamp (Illustration: from "Al-Quds")

This was preceded by warnings from the governor of North Sinai, Khaled Majwar, who declared:"Breaking through the Rafah crossing by force will lead to an all-out war that will destroy the entire region."

The idea of occupying Gaza comes at an unprecedented low point, as voices are growing in favor of recognizing a Palestinian state and imposing sanctions on Israel. The occupation of Gaza is not expected to end in condemnation, but rather to entail restrictions on trade, science, seaports, and air links, in a way that will affect the lives of all Israelis.

"In all his moves, and most notably the plan to occupy the Strip, Netanyahu is greatly facilitating the Palestinian effort to move towards a state. The latest developments are dramatically deteriorating Israel's international status, thereby providing an unprecedented tailwind to the Palestinians," explained Palestinian journalist and Ramallah resident Muhammad Dragma in a conversation on Tuesday.

The economic cost will also be noted in the background."The minimum annual cost of running a military government in the Gaza Strip, which would have to be established from scratch, is expected to be 8-10 billion shekels," explains Prof. Zvi Eckstein, head of the Aharon Institute for Economic Policy at Reichman University, who previously served as deputy governor of the Bank of Israel.

"Tens of billions will also be required to rebuild the infrastructure in Gaza, and it is doubtful whether Arab and Western countries will agree to participate in financing in the reality of a full occupation. The damage to the economy will be exacerbated by the need to operate a large reserve force over time, as well as by sanctions that will be imposed on Israel by companies and, later, countries."

*

Netanyahu is not the first prime minister to grapple with the dilemma of occupying Gaza. Almost all of his predecessors since the establishment of the state have aspired, on the one hand, to control the Strip, for security or ideological reasons, but on the other hand, they feared responsibility for the masses of Gazans, about 70 percent of whom are refugees, and recognized the profound implications of controlling them, including a demographic threat to the character of the state, if the region were annexed by Israel.

Understanding the complexity and threats caused past leaders to choose the lesser evil: Ben-Gurion gave up on his ambition to annex Gaza in the early 1950s (and before that, on the occupation of the West Bank), Rabin sought to"extract Gaza from the Gaza Strip," and Sharon promoted disengagement on the grounds of a creeping existential demographic threat to Israel.

Olmert also decided in Operation Cast Lead not to continue occupying the Strip, and even Netanyahu himself in 2014 (Operation Protective Edge) rejected the plan presented to him for the complete occupation of the region - at that time, a presentation prepared by the IDF on the subject was leaked from the cabinet to the media, apparently to thwart the possibility of occupying Gaza.

It is unclear whether the current threat to occupy the Strip is serious, but a striking difference is already apparent compared to the past: the threat is overt, consciously promoted, and driven in large part by ideological arguments disguised as strategic considerations, for example the apparent assertion that where there is settlement, there is no terrorism.

In addition, it is accompanied by heartfelt longings, some of them fantasies, for a change in reality, such as realizing Trump's vision, encouraging Palestinian immigration, deradicalization, and establishing a humanitarian city, to which have been added in recent days new engineered ideas of emptying Gaza City and imposing a prolonged siege that will"dry up" Hamas. A complete occupation requires the leadership to look directly at the public and honestly describe the price it will exact, in particular the almost certain harm to the lives of the hostages, and also to explain that a new chapter in Israel's history is beginning, one that is not accompanied by a defined duration or by a systematic strategy and planning.