On Friday, September 12, exercises of Russian and Belarusian troops begin beyond our eastern border Zapad-2025.

- For reasons of state security, we will close the border with Belarus, including railway crossings, in connection with the Zapad maneuvers - Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Tuesday.

The borders will be closed at midnight on the night from Thursday to Friday.

A few days ago, Philip Ingram, a former high-ranking British military intelligence officer, in an interview with the British newspaper The Sun, described"troubling signals" from Russia that may suggest that Vladimir Putin is preparing for a new offensive.

- The movement of Russian troops, the accumulation of fuel, and the jamming of GPS signals are hidden signals about Putin's preparations for an attack on NATO's"Achilles' heel", i.e. the Suwałki Gap - claims the British officer.

Is  Russia really preparing to attempt to seize the Suwałki Gap? - You don't need to use the analysis of a British expert to answer this question in the affirmative - tells Interia General Leon Komornicki, former deputy chief of the General Staff.

The military points out that this attack is covered by the Gerasimov Doctrine, the Russian military doctrine.

- And it is clearly stated that the war on the European military shield will begin with an attack on the Baltic states. Russia has this planned. This is obvious, there should be no doubt whatsoever," he emphasizes.

The previous Zapad exercises in 2021 were subordinated to scenarios of aggression being prepared by Russia against Ukraine. This time, according to General Komornicki, scenarios of possible aggression against the Baltic countries will be played out during the maneuvers.

- These exercises are a prelude - he emphasizes. - Right now, Russia has sufficient forces to carry out this attack. But it certainly won't happen now, not as part of these exercises. It could happen next year, in two years - he analyzes.

In turn, the Russian  Królewiec Oblast located northwest of the isthmus has no land connection with Russian or Belarusian territory. - This is their pain, a problem for Russian thinking, Russian existence. This is an unacceptable situation. It was similar with Crimea, which had no land connection with Russian territory, says General Leon Komornicki.

According to the former military official, provocations from Russia will intensify during the Zapad-2025 exercises. - All sorts of things could happen - he adds.

"The exercises have already begun, and fake news is already circulating," Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of GROM, told Interia."Information warfare is one element of Russia's operations. This is Putin's strategy. To intimidate, discourage Ukrainians, and build a sense of a powerful Russia," he added.

Currently, Russia is embroiled in the war in Donbas, General Polko points out. If operations on NATO's flank were to begin now, even under the guise of exercises, the former military official believes it would be"Putin's suicide."

"Firstly, he has nothing to fight with. His only strength is oil and nuclear weapons. And secondly, it would ruin his business, even those he has established with countries like China and India. They would be reluctant to talk to someone who suddenly attacked a NATO country. Of course, such a scenario is a fantasy," the expert said.

Polko emphasizes that despite the emerging fake news, we should focus on building defense capabilities. In September, the Iron Defender-25 military exercise will take place in Poland.

- Europe must integrate, it must overcome its own national blockages and crises - says General Roman Polko.

As the military emphasizes, recent incidents of drones violating Polish airspace from across the eastern border are not accidental."Of course, this is a test of our air defense system," he adds.

On Tuesday, on Radio Zet, Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz was asked whether the military should shoot down such drones."Yes, if it is justified," he replied. This has not been done so far, and decisions on this matter, as the Deputy Prime Minister emphasized, are the responsibility of the Operational Commander of the Armed Forces.

"We should, above all, respond to aggression with at least the same, and not show helplessness. The percentage of destroyed airstrikes that crossed our border is zero," says General Polko."The Belarusian side is practically mocking Poland in its propaganda, and the Russian side keeps pretending that these aren't their drones."