On Wednesday night, Poland's airspace was violated by 19 Russian drones, according to the country's Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Four of the drones were shot down.

The Polish TV channel TVP reports that NATO has activated Article 4 of the Atlantic Treaty, and Norway's Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide has himself stated that a meeting in NATO on Wednesday morning was categorized as an Article 4 meeting.

NATO chief Mark Rutte condemns what he calls reckless behavior.

"We are on alert and will defend every inch of NATO territory," he says.

Russia's Defense Ministry says it had no plans to attack targets in Poland, while the Foreign Ministry states that it is a myth that Russian drones were intentionally sent into Polish airspace.

- Most likely, I think they are testing out the reaction pattern at NATO, but we cannot rule out that it is unintentional. Given that they are reconnaissance drones, they may have a good intelligence function, says Tom Røseth, senior lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defence University College.

He believes it is too early to conclude what the cause is, but that there are a suspiciously large number of drones off course at the same time.

"Some appear to have left Ukraine, and some have entered through Belarus territory. When there are so many, the probability that it is intended by someone also increases," Røseth tells Dagbladet.

- The fault is on the Russian side

He is unsure whether they were sent in to damage Polish targets or whether it is a technical failure, but believes the fault lies on the Russian side in any case.

- As I understand it, these drones are very difficult to jam or disrupt in other ways.

- If they were sent in intentionally, how much can they gain from this in terms of intelligence?

"The drones are equipped with sensors that can detect radars and possibly other signals. They may have filmed this, but often these are used to assist larger drone attacks in Ukraine," says Røseth.

He believes the consequence is that it could be useful for the Russian side. In terms of planning or scenario-based planning, he believes the most important thing here is to look for the Russians wanting to test NATO.

- If we get a normal situation where we get Russian drones over to NATO countries like Poland, and that is accepted, then this is a serious test that NATO is failing, says Røseth.

- How can NATO act if it is now concluded that this was a deliberate act?

- First and foremost, it is to put greater pressure on supporting Poland and the Baltics in having a greater presence in the form of aircraft and air defense. And then it will be to develop anti-drone equipment at a quite different pace, he says.

- A stronger NATO

At the same time, this is not only beneficial for the Russian side. If last night's events can be proven to be linked to Russia as a deliberate attack, it will most likely have political and diplomatic consequences.

"This opens up the possibility for a stronger NATO response. It could lead to increased support for Poland, and a much larger NATO presence along the Polish border," says Røseth.

He believes that Donald Trump may also be brought into play by introducing new sanctions.

- There is speculation in the Russian media about coordination between Europe and the US in sanctions against third countries, namely China specifically. So the strategic gain could easily be negative for Russia. And from that perspective, it is not entirely rational for them to carry out such attacks now, he says.

Some fear primarily that the reactions will be too weak, and that Russia still sees room for maneuver in Poland or other countries in the region.

- My fear is that we will see more of this if there is not a military response that makes this more difficult to implement from the Russian side. Or that sanctions will hit in a much heavier way, so that Russia realizes that this is going the wrong way, says Tom Røseth.

Vladimir Putin is engaging in hybrid warfare, and Russia is playing on fear and perhaps hoping to achieve a division in NATO.

- Yes, they probably do, and the question is what will the analysis in Washington be. Will there be a phone call to Trump where Putin explains that this had nothing to do with Russia. And that Trump believes in Putin, as he has done a few times before, says Tom Røseth before adding:

- Then there could be more division between Europe and the USA.

Strong reactions

EU Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas also states that the drones were not in Poland by accident.

Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide (Ap) calls the incident completely unacceptable and very serious.

- There is much to suggest that this may be an attempt by the Russian side to test NATO in a very tense situation, Barth Eide told the press on Wednesday afternoon.

He further explained that this occurred in connection with extensive Russian attacks on all of Ukraine, including western Ukraine, which Poland borders.

- And what is somewhat remarkable is that some of these drones came from Belarusian territory, towards Poland, which strengthens the suspicion of a deliberate act, although I understand this has been denied by the Russian side, said Barth Eide.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says this sets an extremely dangerous precedent for Europe, according to the BBC.