This is stated in a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts have noted new threats voiced by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev. On September 15, he stated on his Russian and English-language social media accounts that the creation of a no-fly zone over Ukraine that would allow NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones “would mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia.”

Medvedev also said that Russia would"persecute" EU countries and European officials who support the provision of loans to Ukraine secured by Russian assets. The former Russian president threatened them with prosecution of Russia"in all possible international and national courts" and "in some cases, extrajudicially."

ISW views these words as a potential threat that Russia will take "kinetic actions against EU countries" (ed. note - physical, not just hybrid or cyber aggression).

Furthermore, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov directly stated on September 15 that “NATO is at war with Russia” and that “NATO is de facto participating” in the war in Ukraine because it provides support to the Ukrainian side.

Peskov, like Medvedev, condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, stating that"such actions will not go unnoticed."

ISW emphasized that D. Peskov and D. Medvedev's statements about a"war" between Russia and NATO are intended to prevent the Alliance and European states from defending themselves and Ukraine from aggressive and threatening Russian behavior, such as the recent drone incursion into Poland on September 10.

In addition, analysts at the Institute for Military Studies remind that the new statements by D. Peskov and D. Medvedev came as Russia threatened Europeans regarding Serbia and NATO member Norway.

Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolai Korchunov accused Norwegian officials of invading alleged"Russian" settlements on sovereign Norwegian territory.

And Russia's foreign intelligence service has stated that European officials are allegedly preparing a"Serbian Maidan" revolution.

Kremlin officials consistently use narratives similar to those used by Russia to try to justify its invasion of Ukraine, including territorial claims to Ukraine and false claims about the 2014 Euromaidan as an alleged"coup".

Now, such statements from Moscow sound like threats to other neighboring states, including NATO members, says ISW.

For example, in recent weeks, Russia has used similar escalating rhetoric against Finland, another NATO country.

ISW also emphasized that Russia is using the Zapad-2025 exercises, which are also taking place in Belarus, to prepare for possible future physical ("kinetic") provocations against neighboring NATO states.

Scenarios tested by Russian soldiers during these exercises:

the use of nuclear weapons in the waters of the Barents Sea, which border Norway (a NATO member), and"protection" against a similar enemy weapon;

the deployment of Iskander-M ballistic missile complexes, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, in the Kaliningrad region, which directly borders NATO members Lithuania and Poland.

ISW recalls that the Russians have already used the Kaliningrad region as a launch pad for jamming GPS signals across Europe. In addition, Russia recently built a large radio reconnaissance facility in the Kaliningrad region - a giant circular antenna system near the Chernyakhovsk air base, intended for military radio reconnaissance and communications.

The facility is located 25 km from the Polish border. On September 15, Andrius Kubilius, the European Commissioner for Defence and Space, stated that 40% of all flights in Europe were experiencing some form of signal interference, probably originating from Russia.

Therefore, ISW analysts conclude that the Zapad-2025 exercises provide Russia and Belarus with a platform to improve methods of force ("kinetic") escalation, which in itself is a form of pressure on NATO.

In addition, during these exercises, Russian and Belarusian soldiers practice and train, drawing on Russia's experience gained during the war with Ukraine.

"Russia and Belarus will likely use the Zapad-2025 exercises to improve overall military interoperability in modern warfare," ISW concluded.