Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Emmanuel Macron want to write a"new chapter" in Franco-German collaboration by launching up to 20 strategic projects that will benefit both states and therefore the independence of the European Union."The Franco-German engine is working again to create a stronger Europe in the areas of the economy, trade, currency and energy," said Merz, summing up the joint council of ministers held this Friday in Toulon, France. Macron expressed himself in similar terms."When France and Germany decide to move forward together, it changes the rhythm of all of Europe. In Toulon, our friendship is not only reaffirmed. A European milestone is reached."
Both want to reach a fair deal on low-emission energy sources, including nuclear energy, and in the face of continued Russian attacks, ensure that Ukraine has more air defense assistance, that the encirclement of Russia is tightening and becoming more impermeable, and that kyiv dictates the terms of peace."Despite intense international diplomatic efforts, Russia shows no willingness to end its war of aggression against Ukraine, the joint statement said. Therefore, in addition to increasing military aid, tougher sanctions are being considered to exert"maximum pressure" on Russia to end the war against Ukraine. France and Germany will advocate for this at the G7 and in the EU. Sanctions should also target third-country companies that support Russia's war against Ukraine."We are ready, together with the United States, to force Russia back to the negotiating table," Macron said. Merz and Macron plan to ask Donald Trump this weekend to impose sanctions on Russia if Vladimir Putin He has not agreed to sit down and negotiate with Volodymyr Zelensky, as he had promised to do to the US president, according to the latter. Macron stressed that if Putin does not fulfill this commitment by Monday, it will mean that"once again" he will have deceived Trump, a comment that not subtly encourages the American to act."That cannot go unanswered," he insisted.
France and Germany also guarantee Ukraine's security, although for the time being they are limited to supporting the Ukrainian armed forces. The joint declaration does not mention the deployment of ground troops in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement. However, the French president has already announced new consultations in the coming days with the coalition of countries willing to support Ukraine, during which the issue of deploying troops will also be discussed.
The"European engine" indeed seems to be better oiled since the arrival of the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to the government in Berlin. There was never any chemistry with the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz. His calm and taciturn nature clashed with Macron's activism. Merz is a hawk, and in the scant four months he has been in the Chancellery, he has shown that he wants to take to the skies. He has found common ground with Macron, such as the"economic rearmament" of the EU, the strengthening of the continent's competitiveness, investment in artificial intelligence and space, and unconditional support for Ukraine."US President Donald Trump's mistreatment of his European allies has led to disappointment in the United States in the form of an intra-European rapprochement," adds Hélène Miard-Delacroix, a specialist in Franco-German relations at the Sorbonne.
The meeting of the two leading EU governments was, however, disruptive, and many in France believe Macron should have postponed it, at least until after the vote of confidence that Prime Minister François Bayrou will face on the 8th, which he is expected to lose. This means that what the two governments agreed today in Toulon carries less weight than a breeze in the Mediterranean.
The praise Macron and Merz heaped on each other in their press conference, the references to the historic commitment France and Germany made at the end of World War II, and the vocation to guide the EU, including the remaining 25 members, sounded somewhat grandiose in these circumstances. The unbreakable Franco-German friendship is a marriage of convenience, and at its core is a driving force of interests.
The"Toulon spirit" has been selective, and in pursuit of the meeting's success, it has overlooked issues relevant to third parties. One concerns the agreement with Mercosur. France continues to call for the negotiation of an additional protocol to protect the interests of farmers, and Germany, concerned about the commercial interests of its manufacturers, is calling for immediate implementation without reopening negotiations.
Another is the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), developed on both sides of the Rhine in cooperation with Spain. Production of the FCAS fighter jet is scheduled to begin in 2040 and aims to reduce Europe's dependence on American fighter jets. The development of this aircraft, designed to operate alongside drones, is blocked by a power struggle between industries. Berlin blames France's Dassault Aviation for stalling the next phase of the FCAS program, estimated to cost more than €100 billion, by demanding sole leadership of the project. Airbus and Indra are also involved in the plan to begin replacing the French Rafales and the German and Spanish Eurofighters with a sixth-generation fighter jet starting in 2040. There were hopes that the matter would be discussed in Toulon, but Merz decided to postpone the decision until the end of the year.
These are not the only disagreements. Although Merz and Macron are striving to show unity, for example, on a joint trip to Kyiv or, recently, to Moldova, there has been no concrete progress on other contentious issues between Germany and France. Paris advocates for a common European debt to strengthen the arms industry, while Berlin rejects it. France wants to continue using and expanding nuclear energy, while Germany has completely abandoned it. There has been zero harmony in the recent negotiations with the United States on tariffs. While Merz did not hesitate to applaud the 15% tariffs negotiated with Washington, Macron is critical of the European Commission's weak negotiating approach.
The agenda for talks in Toulon was long, but the question analysts on the France 24 news channel had been asking themselves since the day before was the same:"Can the interim government speak and treat the matter seriously? Because that's what the prime minister did before the meeting with the Germans: set an expiration date for the government. He's practically disavowed himself. If you add to that the economic and financial situation in both countries, the imbalance between Paris and Berlin is enormous. How are they going to talk as equals? There's a real disconnect here. It's a disaster."
The new political crisis in Paris, with the likely fall of the Bayrou government due to its €44 billion budget savings plan, effectively complicates the situation for Macron."We're starting off with a small burden compared to the Germans. They have a debt of 60% of GDP. We have one of 113%," laments a French minister.
According to forecasts from the French Economic Observatory (OFCE), uncertainty has already reduced growth by 0.3 percentage points in 2025, falling from 1% to 0.7%. While the cost of French borrowing has risen on the markets since Bayrou announced his no-confidence vote,"some are beginning to fear that France could become a destabilizing factor for the European economy," notes Thierry Chopin, a professor at the College of Europe.
In Germany, the French budget situation is being watched with concern, which also coincides with a decline in the enthusiasm that Macron once generated in this country."There is a small fund of mistrust" towards a weakened president who is already at the end of his term, notes Miard-Delacroix. Merz also does not inspire admiration among his own people. Only 26% of Germans are satisfied with the work done, and that includes cornering the far right, which, if elected, could take over the French government. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has already tied the CDU in voting intentions. Both have a voting intention of 25%.
