That's what it's about

• According to consistent media reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to fully occupy the Gaza Strip militarily.
• The security cabinet is scheduled to meet this week. Middle East expert Marcus Schneider assesses Netanyahu's political chances as good.
• In an interview, Schneider explains why he nevertheless does not believe the full occupation will happen and what intentions he suspects behind the announcement.

According to consistent media reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday evening that he intends to fully occupy the Gaza Strip. A meeting of the security cabinet is planned for this week. According to Middle East expert Marcus Schneider of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Netanyahu's chances of rallying political majorities behind his plan are good, despite resistance from the army. Nevertheless, he does not believe that the Gaza Strip will be permanently occupied by the military, as he explains in an interview.

Why is this step coming now? Does it have anything to do with the recently released Hamas propaganda videos?

The videos of the emaciated hostages have indeed given Israel, which has recently been under considerable pressure in Western public opinion, a boost. Many close allies, including Germany, called for a permanent ceasefire. Tens of thousands of people protested in Israel over the weekend for the immediate release of the hostages – criticizing Netanyahu's policies.

Now, the possibility arises of continuing the war by citing Hamas's inhumanity. However, I consider the stated goal of Netanyahu's cabinet to be more of a diversionary tactic. A permanent occupation would consume enormous resources and could end disastrously. But the long-term goal remains, as formulated in the Trump Riviera Plan and enthusiastically welcomed by Netanyahu's government, the complete expulsion of the Palestinians from Gaza. How this can be accomplished as long as Egypt keeps the border closed is unclear. What is clear, however, is that for this to succeed, the war must continue.

Netanyahu is the head of the government. His right-wing coalition partners are on his side; they, as is well known, want to repopulate Gaza. In that respect, things are looking good for him politically. However, there is resistance from the army. It would have to fight a completely different kind of very unpleasant war here against the remnants of Hamas in the rubble of the Gaza Strip. And then, with thousands of troops, secure an occupation against the will of a hostile, traumatized population in the midst of a post-apocalyptic landscape of destruction. Ultimately, however, the army will have to bow to the will of the government.

What type of cast can be expected?

As I said, I consider the talk of a total occupation to be more of a diversionary tactic. Since Israel is strictly opposed to a Palestinian Authority takeover, it would have to take over civilian tasks itself. That would be enormously expensive, especially since massive investments would be required to even begin to restore the Gaza Strip to some sort of statehood. But that money won't come from outside as long as there is no political perspective that also includes the Palestinians. And Israel doesn't want that perspective, that is, a process toward a two-state solution.

Pressure on the Israeli government has recently increased, including internationally. What reactions do you expect from the US and other countries?

The key players are the USA and Germany. Most of the weapons for this war are coming from America. Trump could end the war in Gaza with a phone call; Washington has considerable leverage here. However, that doesn't seem likely at the moment. For the Republicans, unconditional support for Israel is practically an article of faith. Europe, on the other hand, will only be able to exert significant pressure if Germany moves. Beyond rhetorical admonitions, this hasn't been apparent so far. The strategy of the starvation blockade has produced very horrific images and discredited Israel in the West. I think it's possible that more humanitarian aid will now be allowed to prevent such images. At the same time, the war is being intensified – responsibility for this is being placed on Hamas, although it won't give in solely out of self-preservation. I still don't see a day after, in the sense of a future for the Palestinian population in Gaza, as an Israeli goal.

Would Netanyahu's complete occupation of the Gaza Strip and the expulsion of all the people living there be the last straw?

The expulsion is presented as a voluntary departure. People are given the choice of leaving voluntarily or wasting away voluntarily. The hope of Israel's leading political forces is, of course, that surrounding countries will take pity on them and accept the population. However, this is currently not apparent. Especially since the neighboring Arab countries do not want to be seen as accomplices to ethnic cleansing and gravediggers of the Palestinian cause. Any kind of reconstruction of the Gaza Strip would involve a political perspective – the Gulf states, whose funding would be crucial here, have made this clear. Israel does not want this political perspective. Unless there is massive pressure from Israel's Western allies, the drama in Gaza could drag on for some time.