PARIS – French President Emmanuel Macron has vowed to select a new prime minister “in the next few days” after the government of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a vote of confidence in the French Parliament on Sept 8.

Yet there is little doubt that Mr Macron’s authority has been severely damaged by the fall of his Cabinet.

And most political observers in the French capital predict that, almost regardless of who Mr Macron picks as head of a new government, the country’s acute political crisis will only deepen.

Outgoing Prime Minister Bayrou, France’s fourth head of government in two years, has barely completed nine months in office. Mr Bayrou acknowledged from the start that his prospects were dim. “I know that the chances of difficulties are greater than the chances of success,” he told the people of France on Dec 13, 2024, his first day in office.

The French Parliament remains deeply divided between the far-right National Rally, an anti-immigrant, nationalist movement, and the France Unbowed coalition of far-left parties. Neither can govern on its own, and neither would think of joining hands in a coalition; the only thing that unites these two political extremes is a rejection of anything Mr Macron and his allies represent or do.

Yet despite such unpromising prospects, Mr Bayrou pinned his government’s chance of survival on two assumptions.

To begin with, he believed that, faced with almost no economic growth and a crushing public debt burden amounting to 114 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, French MPs would be reluctant to prolong the political crisis by toppling his government.

France is already paying more for its long-term borrowing needs than either Italy or Greece, the only other European Union countries with higher debt than France, primarily because investors consider France to be a higher political risk.

And if nothing is done to reduce Paris’ borrowing needs, debt repayment could well become the single-largest item of expenditure of future French governments. By the end of this decade, France could spend more on servicing its debts than it currently spends on its military and education combined.

So, Mr Bayrou proposed a €43.8 billion (S$66 billion) budget squeeze in his forthcoming budget. The outgoing Premier framed the debate not merely as an economic matter but also as a question of morality.

It was simply unjust, he claimed, for the Frenchmen and women of today to duck painful economic questions and leave these to future generations.

“Don’t tell your children you love them if you pretend to ignore the overwhelming burden on their shoulders,” the French Premier thundered during the rowdy Sept 8 parliamentary debate.

“The submission to debt is like submission to military force,” he told lawmakers. “France is at risk of losing its sovereignty and therefore its credibility,” he warned.

But leaders of the France Unbowed movement rejected the proposed spending cuts outright, with Ms Mathilde Panot, who runs the far-left parliamentary movement, angrily dismissing Mr Bayrou as part of a “preying oligarchy” of capitalists.

Mr Bayrou also hoped he could survive because he assumed the far-right National Rally would be interested in keeping the current government in power, thereby avoiding new parliamentary elections. Ms Marine Le Pen, the National Rally’s leader, has recently been convicted of misuse of public funds and

Ms Le Pen is appealing the conviction and remains an MP.

Still, the assumption in Mr Bayrou’s circles was that, until her appeal is decided, Ms Le Pen would be reluctant to pull down an existing government only to face a general election in which she will not be able to stand.

Yet, this government gamble also proved to be wrong. During the parliamentary debate of Sept 8, Ms Le Pen called for “the end of the agony of a phantom government”. “Change cannot wait any longer,” she added, to a standing ovation from her MPs.

The Bayrou government not only miscalculated its chances of survival, it also misread the mood among its own MPs, some of whom defected to the opposition.

The motion of no confidence in the Bayrou administration was supported by 364 out of France’s total 573 sitting MPs, a far higher margin than anyone anticipated.

Mr Macron now faces two options. He can try to form a new government, or he can call fresh parliamentary elections. However, both options carry grave risks.

There are plenty of people hoping to become France’s new prime minister. The candidate with the most chances at the moment is Mr Sebastien Lecornu, the current French Minister of the Armed Forces.

Yet it is difficult to see how a mere change of prime ministers can unlock the current parliamentary jam.

A new prime minister will survive only if he or she abandons any attempts to cut expenditure.

However, that could, in turn, send France’s borrowing demands and costs soaring, and throttle whatever prospect the country still has of returning to economic growth. The chances of forging a new national consensus on France’s economic policies remain practically zero.

The other option facing Mr Macron – that of holding a fresh general election – is no better either, since all the opinion polls indicate that, at best, a new Parliament will remain as deeply divided and polarised as the current one.

Mr Macron remains determined to avoid the only other way of breaking the current logjam: his resignation and a new presidential election.

Mr Macron, whose term expires in 2027 but who is barred by the Constitution from standing again, believes he is the only man standing between France and political chaos. His biggest mistake is that he never took the French Parliament seriously. Since he came to power in 2017, he has tried to boost the already extensive powers available to the French head of state.

Yet all the evidence now suggests that the real forum for debate and political haggling is in Parliament, where the President has few allies and no chance of forming a workable majority.

Meanwhile, the opposition to Mr Macron is now moving to the streets.

France is facing a day of protest actions on Sept 10, organised online by a movement calling itself “Block Everything”. Public sector strikes are expected to follow next week.

Mr Bayrou is leaving office convinced that history will vindicate him.

Perhaps it will. But only after French politicians run out of all other options to duck economic reality.