“Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unusually adamant in claiming full responsibility for the overnight airstrike on the Middle Eastern nation of Qatar.
At least 10 of his combat jets bombed a Doha residential compound housing Palestinian Hamas leaders gathering there for scheduled diplomatic talks with the United States.
But confusion surrounds US President Donald Trump’s involvement in the attack.
As news of the attack broke, the White House immediately insisted it had “warned” Qatar of the impending Israeli move.
Qatari government officials, however, deny this. Instead, they claim the White House only contacted them 10 minutes after the bombs had been dropped.
It’s a dispute that has profound implications for the future of Middle Eastern relations.
Did Trump give Netanyahu the go-ahead for the strike?
Israeli local media is reporting “a senior Israeli official” as saying Trump had given Netanyahu the “green light” for the attack to take place.
But the White House insists it only found out once the combat aircraft were in the air.
The unprecedented assault on Qatari territory comes at a pivotal moment for the future of the Middle East.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is pressing ahead with a full-scale invasion of Gaza City, with his closest ministers demanding that Israeli settlers be allowed to occupy the territory.
And President Trump had, on Sunday, issued Hamas an ultimatum over a hostage release deal negotiations: “This is my last warning, there will not be another one!”
International affairs analysts say the Qatari bombing now means all hope for a ceasefire agreement is lost.
And with it, the chances of the surviving 20 hostages being released.
“The Israeli government is going for the kill with Hamas,” argues professor of international politics Scott Lucas.
“Having staked his political and legal future on the ‘absolute destruction’ of the organisation, Netanyahu cannot agree to a settlement in which it retains any place in Gaza, let alone power.”
How much did Trump know?
“Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States... does not advance Israel or America’s goals,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.
She claims Mr Trump’s special envoy, Stee Witkoff, had informed the Qatari government of the impending attack and assured it that “such a thing will not happen again on their soil”.
The President “feels very badly about the location of this attack,” Leavitt added.
But the timing of the attack has raised questions.
Mr Trump insisted as recently as last week that the White House was “in deep negotiations with Hamas”.
“If you immediately release the hostages, good things are going to happen, but if you don’t, it is going to be tough and nasty for you,” he told Hamas.
By Sunday, his patience had clearly waned.
“Everyone wants the Hostages HOME. Everyone wants this War to end!” he proclaimed on his personal Truth Social social media platform. “The Israelis have accepted my Terms. It is time for Hamas to accept as well…
“I have warned Hamas about the consequences of not accepting. This is my last warning, there will not be another one!”
No further warning is necessary.
But urgent Middle East diplomacy is.
“Any US complicity, even if more perceived than real, causes complications for U.S. foreign policy in the region,” warns Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyst Professor Daniel Byman.
Israel’s bombs fell not far from Qatar’s heavily defended Al Udeid Air Base, which it shares with the United States and the United Kingdom. The home of the US Central Command successfully fended off attacks from Iranian drones and missiles in June. But it did not respond to the intruding Israeli combat aircraft.
“If the United States did know of the operation in advance and did not tell Israel to stand down, then it appears to have tolerated an attack on the territory of an important US regional partner,” Prof Byman adds.
Mr Trump, however, has maintained his focus on Hamas.
“I want ALL of the Hostages, and bodies of the dead, released, and this War to END, NOW,” Trump proclaimed on social media shortly after the strike.
“The Prime Minister told me that he wants to make Peace. I believe this unfortunate incident could serve as an opportunity for PEACE.”
What is Israel thinking?
Hamas’s diplomatic leadership have been “dead men walking” ever since October 7, 2023, says Atlantic Council Middle East Security Initiative analyst and former US ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro.
“What kept them alive for this long was their role in negotiations to free Israeli hostages,” he argues. “And on that front, they proved to be limited in their utility”.
Israeli officials said they targeted the Doha residential compound as it had been identified as where Hamas leaders had gathered ahead of talks with the US.
According to Hamas, five people were killed. But key leaders, including exiled Gaza leader Khalil al-Hayya and Hamas international chief Khaled Mashaal, survived.
Qatar adds that a member of its own security services was also killed.
Diplomats have repeatedly been targeted by Israel.
With little success.
“Israel’s previous assassination attempts on Hamas figures residing in relatively friendly Arab states have backfired, which in the past had made Israeli planners cautious about strikes like the one conducted on Tuesday,” explains Prof Byman.
But recent assassination strikes have targeted Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria.
And, since March, Israel has refused to participate in Gaza hostage negotiations.
Only Mr Trump’s insistence on peace talks has maintained hope that a deal could be brokered.
“The problem for Netanyahu and his allies is that others continued to push for a resolution – both inside Israel, where citizens are beginning to get sick of endless war, and among Israel’s international allies, who are sickened by the images emerging from the Strip and under pressure from their own populations,” argues Prof Lucas.
“But Netanyahu and hard-right ministers in his government have persisted, urging the Prime Minister to go for broke.”
Prof Byman adds that the Qatar strike will make little difference on the ground in Gaza.
“The strike will, however, hinder efforts to negotiate a ceasefire. Even though Hayya apparently survived, such a strike sends a message—one impossible to ignore—that Israel does not consider the negotiations to be serious.
“As a result, one of Israel’s top goals—the return of Israeli hostages—is now even less likely.”
An Arab world backlash?
The attack on Qatar is the first time Israel has launched a direct strike within a Gulf Arab state, notes Middle Eastern analyst, associate professor David Mednicoff.
“That action, even if ostensibly directed at Hamas, is likely to exacerbate tensions not only with Qatar but place increasing stress on the calculus allied Gulf Arab countries make in their dealings with Israel.”
Qatar has condemned the attack on its soil.
Its Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned the Israeli strike as a violation of international law.
It insists the country will “not tolerate this reckless Israeli behaviour and the continuous tampering with the security of the region”.
Israeli and US officials have criticised Qatar for allowing Hamas leaders to live and operate openly within its borders. But its monarchy has found itself in something of a bind.
It had been encouraged by Mr Netanyahu to do precisely that in an effort to exacerbate the rift between the Gaza Strip’s Hamas government and the West Bank’s Palestinian Authority.
The existence of this exiled Hamas enclave, however, has proven advantageous in enabling peace talks outside of the Gaza blockade. And this has proven beneficial for Qatar’s desire to be seen as the “Switzerland of the Middle East”.
It has played the role of negotiation for the wars in Afghanistan and Ukraine. It has hosted talks with Iranian authorities.
It has even gifted Mr Trump with a Boeing 747 “flying palace”, currently being repurposed as a replacement Air Force One.
But the diplomatic fallout for Israel may be intense.
“The monarchs of the Arab Gulf would like to maintain their unchallenged domestic political status while expanding their influence in the Middle East and beyond,” argues Middle Eastern analyst, associate professor David Mednicoff.
“However, even when Gulf leaders wish to be done with the region’s challenges, those challenges are not always done with them.
Their populations are angry at the plight of family, friends and spiritual relations under Israel’s administrations.
Some 65,000 Gazans, most civilians, are believed to have been killed since Israel launched its counterattack after the October 7 terror attack.
Some 90 per cent of the Gaza Strip’s 2.2 million population has been repeatedly displaced as Israel shifts its “safe zones”. And international relief agencies report starvation is rife.
“Not even the most cynical Arab government could risk the domestic backlash of continuing with ‘normalisation’ in those circumstances,” argues Prof Lucas.
And Arab nations are voicing their discontent.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has issued a statement that “condemns and denounces, in the strongest possible terms, the brutal Israeli aggression and the blatant violation of the sovereignty of the State of Qatar”.
It ominously adds that Riyadh “affirms its full solidarity and support for Qatar, placing all its capabilities at its disposal to assist in any measures it may take”.
It warns of “grave consequences of the Israeli occupation’s persistent criminal assaults and its blatant violations of the principles of international law and all international norms”.
