The Israeli Security Cabinet has approved a plan to occupy only Gaza City, not the entire Gaza Strip, as Prime Minister Netanyahu had previously advocated. Why only Gaza City? What does the government hope to achieve with this? And what about the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians residing there?

Not the entire Gaza Strip, but—for now—only occupying Gaza City: that's the plan the Israeli Security Cabinet approved after a meeting lasting around 10 hours last night. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had, however, passionately advocated for a full occupation of the Gaza Strip in recent days.

Toned down, but for how long?

The exact reason for what appears to be a watered-down plan is anyone's guess, but it appears the weakening stems from opposition within Israeli society. In recent days, the military leadership, the opposition, and the hostages' families have openly opposed a further occupation of the Gaza Strip and the continuation of the war in general.

Army Chief Eyal Zamir made it clear that a full occupation would not only endanger the lives of the remaining hostages but also place enormous strain on the Israeli military. According to him, the army would need one to two years to fully occupy the Strip, initially involving about five months of intense fighting. But even for Gaza City alone, Israel would need thousands of additional troops. This is despite the army finding it increasingly difficult to motivate reservists to report for duty.

This watered-down plan, too, is unpopular with the military leadership. The question remains whether it will remain limited to Gaza City. Anonymous sources report that the security cabinet has reportedly already given the green light for a full occupation, but has not yet communicated this.

New mandatory evacuation

Currently, about 75 percent of the Gaza Strip is under Israeli military administration, according to the army itself. (The UN agency OCHA estimates it to be more than 85 percent, due to the numerous evacuation orders in effect.) The remaining 25 percent consists of Gaza City in the north and several refugee camps in the center of the Gaza Strip (see map). In principle, Hamas still controls that area, but the question is how strong it stands after 22 months of war. An occupation of Gaza City would mean that the Israeli army controls the entire north and all major urban areas within the Gaza Strip.

Nearly the majority of the 2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are currently believed to reside in the area not controlled by the Israeli army. The number of people currently residing in Gaza City is unclear. It is, in any case, the largest city in the Gaza Strip. Before the war, the entire urban area was home to more than 800,000 people. Many of them have been displaced several times since the beginning of the war. The number of displaced people may still number in the hundreds of thousands.

What is clear is that the Israeli government wants to force all these people to evacuate again. The statement after last night's marathon meeting states that Palestinians in Gaza City have until October 7th to move to the southern Gaza Strip. So, about two months. The deadline likely coincides with the second anniversary of the Hamas terrorist attack in southern Israel.

Afterward, the Israeli army would launch a new ground offensive in the city, aiming to kill all remaining Hamas fighters and"defeat" Hamas, as Netanyahu puts it. This would likely escalate into a full-blown urban war between the army and Hamas, potentially resulting in many additional casualties. Once Gaza City is under Israeli control, the coastal strip (see map) could also be included in the offensive, ultimately resulting in a full occupation.

Danger to hostages

Whether Netanyahu's plan—to defeat Hamas—will succeed remains to be seen. In March, he unilaterally violated the ceasefire with Hamas, and in May, he decided to launch a new large-scale ground operation. But this failed to yield the expected results. Hamas may be weakened, but it remains the dominant Palestinian armed organization in the Strip. And the new offensive failed to return a single hostage to Israel.

It is assumed that most of the hostages—living and dead—are in the area not yet under Israeli control. This may be primarily in (or below) Gaza City. Launching a new offensive there could endanger the lives of the hostages, as the army leadership has repeatedly warned. Hamas has also threatened to kill hostages if the Israeli army were to enter the remaining 25 percent. It previously did so when the army entered Rafah.

New humanitarian catastrophe

A new humanitarian catastrophe also threatens the population of the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of thousands of people are being forced to relocate again and crowd into ever-shrinking land. A major hunger crisis is already raging in the Gaza Strip, and it is known that the refugee camps lack virtually all necessary basic amenities.

The government's statement on the new plan states that Israel will provide humanitarian aid to civilians outside combat zones. It was previously stated that the Israeli humanitarian organization Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) would expand the distribution points from 3 to 16. However, the food distribution through GHF is controversial. It takes place in complete chaos, and Israeli soldiers regularly fire on the many Palestinians seeking aid. Hundreds of people have reportedly been killed in recent months.

Israel orders Palestinians in Gaza City to evacuate south, crowding hundreds of thousands of people into an ever-shrinking patch of land.

Critics of the Israeli prime minister say his ultimate goal is to encourage Palestinians to voluntarily emigrate from the Gaza Strip. The government has already established a voluntary emigration agency for this purpose. Israel is also trying to motivate other countries to accept Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.

This also aligns with the plans of the far-right ministers within his government. They openly advocate that Israel should regain control of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinians should be expelled, and Israeli settlers should be allowed to re-inhabit the area.

Vague about long term

For Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and Gaza City in particular, it will be an anxious wait to see how this new offensive will play out. The Netanyahu government also remains vague about the long-term course of events in the Gaza Strip.

She has, however, established five additional conditions that must be met before Israel will end the war. These are the complete disarmament of Hamas, the return of the remaining 50 hostages (living or dead), the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, Israeli security control over the Strip, and an alternative administration for Hamas. This would have to be a civilian government without Hamas members, but also without the Palestinian Authority (which governs the Palestinian territories in the West Bank).

Netanyahu also discusses a takeover of security control by Arab troops. The question is how many countries would be eager for this. Jordan has already reacted negatively. Moreover, the Arab countries in the region want the Palestinian Authority to continue to play a role. While the plans for Arab troops and a civilian government may be the most concrete the Netanyahu government has put forward in the past 22 months, the plan doesn't seem to have much chance of success.

But until then, one thing is clear: the war will continue unabated for the foreseeable future. Netanyahu has reportedly indicated that the operation in Gaza City can be halted at any time if Hamas agrees to Israel's demands. The question is how sincerely the prime minister means this. Many Israelis accuse him of having long since sacrificed the lives of the remaining hostages for political ends (the survival of his government) and self-interest (avoiding justice).