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With Donbas, Ukraine would lose its industrial heart

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Czech Republic

Monday, August 18


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Podobizna horníka u nápisu Donbas v Ruskem okupované části Ukrajiny
A miner's portrait next to the sign Donbas in the Russian-occupied part of UkraineSource: Reuters/Alexander Ermochenko

Fulfilling Russia's demand to cede Donbas would deprive Ukraine of the industrial heart of the country, where many prominent cultural figures come from. Some Ukrainians speak of betrayal, others would give up the strategic region under certain circumstances to save more lives, but they are asking for security guarantees from the West, writes the BBC News server.

The Kremlin is calling for a comprehensive peace deal that, among other things, demands that Kiev completely withdraw from the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for Russia's commitment to freeze front lines in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing sources familiar with Friday's talks in Alaska.

A few days before his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump had already called a so-called"territorial exchange" a condition for peace, which according to the BBC caused uncertainty among Ukrainians and speculation about whether Kiev would be offered part of the Russian Federation in exchange for the area seized by force in Ukraine.

But now it appears that Trump is preparing to pressure Zelensky to surrender the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, based on the Kremlin's proposal, in exchange for Moscow not seeking further advancement on the front.

Russian forces now control almost all of Luhansk Oblast. In Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainians still control about 30 percent of the territory, including several key cities and fortifications. Together, the two regions form the Donbas, which is rich in minerals and key to the country's heavy industry and economy.

Coal and rare minerals

Donbass is home to vast deposits of hard coal, natural gas, iron ore and manganese used in steel and metallurgy, as well as critical raw materials such as lithium and rare earths, which are key to modern technologies, including electronics.

Kritické nerostné suroviny na Ukrajině
Critical Mineral Resources in UkraineSource: Ukrainian Geological Survey

In May of this year, the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal pointed out, in connection with the agreement on the extraction of mineral wealth between Kiev and Washington, that up to forty percent of rare minerals in Ukraine are located in territories occupied by Russia.

Ukraine's vast mineral wealth is often cited as one of the main reasons for the current war. Kiev is also aware of the potential of underground reserves, and just months before the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, it tried to attract investment from European and North American companies - receiving more than a hundred offers.

Within months of the start of Russia's major invasion in February 2022, Moscow had seized control of Ukraine's mineral and gas assets worth over $12.5 trillion. Donbass is home to more than 56 percent of Ukraine's hard coal reserves, some of the largest in the world and estimated to be worth around $12 trillion, the Economic Times reports.

Handing over Donbas to Russia now would be a “tragedy,” Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrycak told the BBC. “The people of these regions – especially the miners – played a huge role in strengthening Ukrainian identity,” he said.

Famous politicians, poets and dissidents also came from the area. “And now refugees who will not be able to return home if it becomes Russian,” Hrycák pointed out.

Millions of Ukrainians in occupied territories

At least 1.5 million Ukrainians have fled Donbas since the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014. It is estimated that more than three million people live in Russian-occupied areas. Around three hundred thousand remain in areas under Kiev control.

Life on the front line is becoming increasingly difficult for residents."There is a feeling of resignation and abandonment. I don't know how much more we have the strength to endure. Someone has to protect us. But who?" military chaplain Andriy Borylo from Sloviansk told the BBC."They are taking everything from me, it is a betrayal," he said in response to news of the Alaska summit.

Zelenskyy stressed again over the weekend that Ukraine would not give up Donbas in exchange for peace. According to the BBC, there is also distrust in Ukraine that Moscow would not use the territory for future attacks on the rest of the country. For this reason, a total of 75 percent of Ukrainians are against the transfer of any territory to the Kremlin, according to a poll by the Kiev International Sociological Institute.

At the same time, Ukrainians are very exhausted by the protracted conflict, which has claimed hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, both soldiers and civilians, since the start of the full-scale war. Some residents of Donbas already want light at the end of the tunnel.

"You are asking about the surrender of the Donetsk region. I do not measure this war in kilometers, but in human lives. I am not ready to give tens of thousands of lives for a few thousand square kilometers. Life is more important than territory," says rescuer Yevhen Tkachev from Kramatorsk.

Zelenskyy at the crossroads

According to Ukrainian opposition MP Volodymyr Ariyev from the European Solidarity party, Zelensky is at a crossroads where none of the paths are good."We do not have enough strength to continue the war indefinitely, but if Zelensky were to surrender this territory, it would not only be a violation of our constitution, but it could also bear the hallmarks of treason," the politician noted.

Formally, Ukraine can only hand over territory with the consent of parliament and after approval in a referendum, writes the BBC, adding that a more likely scenario is a possible informal relinquishment of control in favor of Moscow.

But there are still many questions hanging in the air, warns Ukrainian MP Inna Sovsun."Does the president simply sign the agreement? Does it have to be the government? Parliament? There is no legal procedure because, you know, the authors of the constitution did not think of this," the politician stated.

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Key security guarantees

Trump's meeting with Putin showed that the US president has changed his mind and is now willing to provide security guarantees to Kiev, along with Europe. Polls show that Ukrainians see these guarantees as an essential part of any potential agreement on territory or anything else, the BBC reports.

For Tkachev, the territory can only be discussed with “real guarantees, not just written promises.” “Only then am I more or less in favor of Donbas being handed over to Russia,” he said. “If the British Royal Navy is stationed in the port of Odessa, then I agree.”

According to Reuters sources, the talks in Alaska also revealed that Moscow would be ready to return small occupied areas in the northern Sumy and northeastern Kharkiv regions. Putin is also seeking"at least formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea," which Moscow has illegally occupied for eleven years, and expects some Western sanctions to be lifted.

The Kremlin is also demanding a ban on Ukraine's entry into NATO, official status for Russian in some regions of Ukraine or throughout the country, as well as the right of the Russian Orthodox Church to operate freely, Reuters summarizes.

Meanwhile, the pressure on Kiev is mounting. “President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wants, or he can continue the fight. Remember how it started. We are not getting back Crimea, which Obama gave us (twelve years ago, without a single shot fired!), and UKRAINE IS NOT JOINING NATO. Some things never change!!!” Trump ordered ahead of a key meeting with Zelensky and European leaders at the White House on Monday.

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