Slovenia had to take action against Dodik, in a way it was forced to do so, as it is one of the core members of the European Union, believes Dr. Faris Kočan, assistant professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences. As our interlocutor explains, it was expected that it would introduce sanctions together with Austria and Germany. A certain acceleration then occurred with the introduction of sanctions against Israeli ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrič, as it became clear that the legislation allows the introduction of such sanctions. There was also probably too much pressure from the intelligence services, because capital of strange origin is flowing into Slovenia, Kočan estimates.
The Slovenian sanctions do not follow the classic logic of the American sanctions against Dodik, which were introduced a few years ago, warns Kočan. At that time, they also included his business circle. If they really wanted to cut into his regime, they would have sanctioned other individuals, entrepreneurs and his children. But this is at least a signal to the region that Dodik is an undesirable partner and that he is absolutely a thing of the past. It is also a symbolic message to partners and the opposition in the Republika Srpska entity that Dodik is not wanted here. Slovenia is not an unimportant country in the region, Kočan is convinced.
The future of Milorad Dodik, who is still serving as president, is currently being decided in Republika Srpska, even though he should have resigned. A referendum is scheduled for the end of October on the validity of the decisions of Christian Schmidt, the court in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Central Election Commission, which stripped Dodik of his mandate. At the same time, early presidential elections in Republika Srpska, called by the Central Election Commission, are being prepared for the end of November, in accordance with the legal deadline after Dodik was stripped of power. Dodik initially made it clear that he did not intend to run in them, but now he no longer excludes the possibility that his SNSD could have its own presidential candidate there.
It seems that Milorad Dodik is doing what he wants. The referendum will be a kind of last expression of people's love for Dodik, who in some way needs him. But it seems that his SNSD will eventually go to the elections with its candidate if several parties decide to do so, believes Kočan, who does not expect severe counter-sanctions like the Slovenian ones, since foreign policy in BiH is not led by the authorities in Republika Srpska, but by the central authorities in Sarajevo. However, he expects a stormy response from Dodik.
