Seeing that he could not convince the French people and MPs of the necessity of saving in the face of this year's 6% budget deficit, 74-year-old Prime Minister François Bayrou decided to launch an offensive before the autumn parliamentary debate on the budget that will probably lead to the fall of the government. On Monday, at a press conference that some are already interpreting as a resignation statement, he announced that MPs would vote on the government's confidence on September 8 on the basis of a declaration on government policies, which he would read before the vote. In it, he would not (yet) present the budget for next year, but only the main policies.

Macron's options

He has been talking all summer about the need to save 44 billion euros, including by abolishing Easter Monday and Victory Day on May 8 as public holidays, cutting unemployment benefits and freezing public sector wages, pensions and social benefits. He is convinced that France is facing the curse of excessive debt.

Given that he only became prime minister in December last year, after MPs ousted Prime Minister Michel Barnier after just over three months in office, the fall of Bayrou's government would once again highlight the political instability that is exacerbating the public finance crisis. President Emmanuel Macron could appoint someone else as prime minister of a minority government or call early parliamentary elections again after just 15 months.

Precisely because Bayrou intended to save public finances by abolishing two days off and other austerity measures, a general strike with blockades across France was announced for September 10, with the support of the radical left and left-wing unions. A vote of no confidence on September 8 would probably dilute this day of major protests. Bayrou probably chose this date to reduce the possibility of vandalism and economic damage from the blockades once the government fell.

Is the fall of the government almost inevitable?

The left has announced a vote of no confidence for September 23. So Bayrou has decided to leave power on his own schedule. The parties of the United Left and the United Far Right, which together have about 330 of the 577 deputies, have already announced that they will vote for the fall of the government. Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old leader of the far-right National Assembly, which has 142 deputies in the assembly with its allies, has declared that his party will never be in favor of a government that causes suffering to the French people. After the fall of the government, he expects elections to be called. He expects to win them, that is, more than 200 deputies.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the 74-year-old leader of the radical left Unconquered France, which has 71 MPs, is demanding President Macron's resignation after the fall of Bayrou's government: Macron must be prevented from appointing a third prime minister who would pursue the same policies. Macron is said to be to blame for the current severe public finance problems because he cut taxes on the rich too much.

Olivier Faure, the leader of the Socialists, whom Bayrou secretly hopes will save him, has rejected any possibility of this. It is precisely the Socialists, who have 66 deputies, that Bayrou is trying to win over by urging them to act responsibly. But it is hard to believe that they will change their minds by September 8, as this would cost them dearly in the elections. Some Socialists and the Greens, however, are demanding that after Bayrou's dismissal they be given a mandate to form a minority government, which would also be supported by France Unconquered.