When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered this week’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar, he took a major gamble in his campaign to pound the terror group into submission.

With signs growing that the mission failed, that gamble appears to have backfired.

Netanyahu had hoped to kill Hamas’ senior exiled leaders to get closer to his vision of “total victory” against the terror group that carried out the brutal massacre of 1,200 people in Israel on October 7, 2023, and pressure it into surrendering after nearly two years of war in the Gaza Strip.

Instead, Hamas claims its leaders survived, and Netanyahu’s global standing — already badly damaged by the scenes of destruction and humanitarian disaster in Gaza, as Israel tries to destroy Hamas and get back 48 hostages held there — took another hit.

The airstrike on Tuesday has enraged Qatar, an influential US ally that has been a key mediator throughout the war, and drawn heavy criticism across the Arab world. It also has strained relations with the White House and thrown hopes of reaching a ceasefire into disarray, potentially endangering the 20 hostages still believed to be alive.

But while the strike marks a setback for Netanyahu, he shows no sign of backing down or halting the war. And with his hard-line coalition still firmly behind him, Netanyahu faces no immediate threat to his rule.

Netanyahu’s hope for an ‘image of victory’ for his government

Five low-level Hamas members and a Qatari security guard were killed in the strike.

But Hamas has said the intended target, senior exiled leaders meeting to discuss a new US ceasefire proposal, all survived. The terror group, however, has not released any photos of the leaders, and Qatar has not commented on their conditions.

If the airstrike had killed the top leadership, the attack could have provided Netanyahu an opportunity to declare Hamas’ destruction, said Harel Chorev, an expert on Arab affairs at Tel Aviv University.

“It’s all very symbolic and it’s definitely part of the thing which allows Netanyahu at a certain point to say ‘We won, we killed them all,'” he said.

Israel’s fierce 23-month offensive in Gaza has wiped out all of Hamas’ top leadership inside the territory. But Netanyahu has set out to eradicate the terror group as part of his goal of “total victory.”

That is now looking increasingly unlikely, making it even harder for Netanyahu to push a ceasefire through his hard-line coalition.

Far-right members of Israel’s governing coalition have cornered Netanyahu, threatening to topple his government unless Israel pushes ahead with an expanded operation in Gaza City, despite serious misgivings by many in the military leadership and widespread opposition among Israel’s public.

A successful operation in Qatar could have allowed Netanyahu to placate the hard-liners, even though it would have eliminated the very officials responsible for negotiating a possible ceasefire.

Burning the channel with Qatar

Israel could target Hamas leaders in Doha from the start of the war, but did not want to antagonize the Qataris while negotiations took place, Chorev said.

Qatar has helped negotiate two previous ceasefires that have released 148 hostages, including eight bodies, in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners. Israel’s military has rescued just eight hostages alive and retrieved the bodies of 51 hostages.

While Israel has complained that Qatar was not putting pressure on Hamas, it had continued to leave that channel open — until Tuesday.

“Israel, by the attack, notified the whole world that it gave up on the negotiations,” Chorev said. “They’ve decided to burn the channel with Qatar.”

Asked if ceasefire talks would continue, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that after the strike, “I don’t think there’s anything valid” in the current talks. But he did not elaborate and stopped short of saying Qatar would end its mediation efforts.

How Netanyahu hopes to win the release of the remaining hostages remains unclear.

On Thursday, Thani accused Israel of abandoning the hostages.

“Extremists that rule Israel today do not care about the hostages — otherwise, how do we justify the timing of this attack?” he told the UN Security Council.

Nonetheless, he said his country was ready to resume its mediation without giving any indication of next steps. On Friday, he met in Washington with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was scheduled to visit Israel this weekend in a sign of how the Trump administration is trying to balance relations between key Middle East allies.

Straining ties with the US

Netanyahu, who has received ironclad support from the US since President Donald Trump returned to office, appears to have strained ties with his most important ally.

Trump said he was “very unhappy” about the airstrike and assured the Qataris such an attack would not happen again.

Trump, however, has not said whether he would take any punitive action against Israel or indicated that he will pressure Netanyahu to halt the war.

Netanyahu, in the meantime, remains undeterred and has threatened additional action if Qatar continues to host the Hamas leadership.

The message to Hamas is clear, he said Thursday: “There is no place where we cannot reach you.”

Little impact on the war in Gaza

Israel is pressing ahead with its expanded offensive aimed at conquering Gaza City. The military has urged a full evacuation of the area holding around 1 million people ahead of an expected invasion.

“Netanyahu’s government is adamant to go on with the military operation in Gaza,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

Israel has brushed off calls to halt the war from the United Nations, the European Union, and a growing number of major Western countries that plan to recognize a Palestinian state at the UN Security Council later this month, she said.

The only one who might be able to change this trajectory is Trump, she added, by telling Israel “enough is enough.”

Netanyahu’s political future unthreatened

If Hamas’ leaders survive, and the negotiations collapse, Netanyahu will further alienate the over two-thirds of the Israeli public who want an end to the war and a deal to bring home the hostages.

But that opposition has been in place for months, with little influence on Netanyahu.

“Netanyahu’s future in the near term doesn’t depend on the Israeli public,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

Instead, his political survival depends on his governing coalition, many of whom have expressed wholehearted support for the assassination attempt.

This has sparked panic and more suffering for the families of the hostages still held in Gaza.

Einav Zangauker, whose son, Matan, is among the captives, said this week she was “shaking with fear” after hearing about Israel’s attack in Doha.

“Why does the prime minister insist on blowing up every chance for a deal?” she asked, on the verge of tears. “Why?”