Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are meeting today at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska, in a private meeting, already considered historic, scheduled to begin around 11:30 local time (22:30 Greek time).

But what are the key issues that the two leaders are expected to raise and what can one expect from their meeting? A Guardian article attempts to outline the answers.

Territories

Russia has occupied about a fifth of Ukraine after more than three years of military operations, but continues to claim territory.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia was demanding the rest of the Donetsk region in exchange for a ceasefire. Zelensky himself noted that Ukraine could not agree to such a thing.

As the Guardian analysis notes, Kiev is willing to accept a ceasefire on the current front lines, which would be followed by discussions on the future status of the occupied territories.

This is a particularly sensitive issue. Russia has sought formal recognition of at least some of the territories it has occupied, notably Crimea, but at best Ukraine is likely to accept only a de facto occupation. An alternative is to leave the status of the occupied territories pending for future negotiations.

Security guarantees

Russia declares that it desires the neutrality of Ukraine, although in practice this neutrality would make Ukraine a weakened neighbor of Russia with no ties to the West.

In previous negotiations, which the Kremlin continues to cite, Moscow had demanded a reduction in Kiev's army to a symbolic 50,000 men. The Russian side also continues to demand the denazification of the country, which is interpreted as a demand to replace Zelensky.

Ukraine would like to join NATO, although this has been rejected by the US, leading the country to seek bilateral or multilateral security guarantees from its Western allies. Britain and France have pledged to lead a European guarantee force in the event of a ceasefire, although Russia opposes this.

On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump had said the United States was ready to join in this effort to prevent a new outbreak of war. It is unclear what Trump is willing to offer in the negotiations, nor whether Russia is willing to accept that Ukraine will be able to independently formulate its own security guarantees.

Sanctions and trade

Russia wants the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow to be lifted.

Trump, however, in the context of the meeting with Putin, can make decisions on this issue only on behalf of the US, while the UK and the EU are likely to adopt a more hostile stance unless Ukraine signs a comprehensive peace agreement.

The Kremlin, for its part, wants progress on this issue, and today Putin’s adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said that the two leaders would discuss broader cooperation, including in the trade and economic sectors, as part of a proposed agreement. Without tangible progress on other issues, however, a unilateral easing of sanctions by the US would be a surprise, the Guardian comments.

War crimes, reparations and reconstruction

Furthermore, both the issue of potential war crimes and the demands for compensation cannot be set aside even in the context of a peace agreement. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Putin for the forcible transfer of some 20,000 children from Ukraine to Russia.

Zelensky had demanded the return of the children in the first stage of peace talks, but even today the ICC's demand has not expired. Ukraine has jurisdiction to investigate war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against its own citizens, human rights lawyer Wayne Jordans says.

The World Bank estimates that the total cost of reconstruction and rehabilitation in Ukraine – where most of the war took place – amounts to 506 billion euros. 

Following a resolution by the UN General Assembly, the Council of Europe has established a registry of compensation claims to record those that meet the requirements.

However, Russia has so far refused to contribute to the financing of reconstruction, pushing Ukraine to find alternative ways to finance its post-war reconstruction.

One option is to seize Russian assets abroad, which amount to about $280 billion, but achieving international consensus on this prospect is considered extremely difficult.

Other issues

In addition to the above, Ukraine is demanding the release of all prisoners of war. As the Guardian reports, Russia holds more than 8,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war and Ukraine holds fewer, making a one-for-one exchange unlikely. However, dozens of prisoner exchanges have taken place since the start of the war, and it is possible that a solution could be found more easily in this area.

Finally, it is noted that early in the war, Russia seized the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe. The plant was shut down shortly afterwards, but the facility remains on Russian-controlled territory and there are indications that Russia wishes to restart it, something that Ukraine would not recognize but probably could not prevent.

Source: Guardian

Vladimir Putin Donald Trump Ukraine War in Ukraine Russia