A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia may be possible, but a peace agreement is unlikely. “This is undoubtedly a long-term war of attrition,” says expert.

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Former Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen, now an associate partner at Geelmuyden Kiese, has little faith in the US and Europe's attempts to reach a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.

Karlsen is an expert on security threats and the war in Ukraine.

– It is important to remember that this war started in 2014 and escalated in 2022. It is a long-term war of attrition, which is won by the one who holds out the longest. And the one who manages to mobilize the most people, the one who has the greatest industrial capacity to make weapons and who receives the most support from outside, he tells NTB.

Get changes

Marianne Riddervold, researcher at the Arena Center for European Research at the University of Oslo, also points out that little has changed politically and diplomatically.

– Russia does not seem to be willing to give anything, as one must in any negotiation. We saw that after the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Alaska earlier this year, says Riddervold, who is also a researcher at NUPI and a senior fellow at the University of California, Berkeley.

She also points out that the telephone conversation between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday has also not advanced the process.

The conversation led to the planned new meeting between Trump and Putin in Budapest being canceled for the time being, probably because Russia is not willing to give in to its maximalist demands.

No peace agreement

Karlsen believes that it is completely unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept any peace agreement.

– So far, Putin still has a clear goal of having control over Ukraine, or at least preventing Ukraine from becoming a NATO member and from functioning as a state. Nothing has changed Putin's overall goal here, says Karlsen.

He explains that Putin cares neither about the moral aspects nor the economic consequences of the war.

– He seems to have full internal control, despite the enormous loss of life at the front. By recruiting soldiers voluntarily and paying well when they are killed, he has managed to reduce resistance to the high losses, says Karlsen.

He says that this is what Putin is doing even though Russia is believed to lose an average of around 1,000 men per day on the battlefield.

– The front line has not moved much either. Russia controlled 18 percent when the war started, now they have 19 percent. That does not prevent Putin from continuing the war, says Karlsen.

Maybe a truce

As long as Russia receives support from China, Iran and North Korea and manages to maintain its military capacity and recruitment of soldiers, the war will only continue, Karlsen believes.

Karlsen also does not believe that Trump can manage to get Putin to make peace.

– Russia is not dependent on the US. Ukraine is. So Trump may have to choose to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enough to make him give in. Europe is unlikely to have enough resources to adequately support Ukraine without the US, says Karlsen.

– Perhaps Putin will at some point see himself benefiting from a ceasefire, but then only to get a break, to get back on his feet. His goals for Ukraine will probably not change, Karlsen believes.

Better collaboration

Riddervold highlights that cooperation in Europe in finding solutions to support Ukraine has developed rapidly, both in the EU and in the so-called Coalition of the Willing.

– Cooperation is also better between the US, Ukraine and Europe than it was at the beginning of Trump's presidency. This applies both at the diplomatic level, and in areas such as arms purchases – where Europe can buy weapons from the US for Ukraine, drone technology and energy, says Riddervold.

– In Europe, the game is about getting Trump on board and getting him to put more pressure on Putin. So far, Trump has not been willing to do that, she emphasizes.

She also points out that Europe is trying to increase military support for Ukraine, while at the same time increasing economic sanctions against Russia, and they want to get the United States on board with both.

Europe steps up

Riddervold believes that the Europeans have realized that they must do more, and that they are working both on how to finance the strengthening of Ukraine and on how a ceasefire can be organized.

– The price for Putin of continuing the war must undoubtedly be higher – and the most important thing here is probably first and foremost what is happening on the ground. The Europeans are now trying, including through arms purchases from the United States, to strengthen the Ukrainians on the ground, says Riddervold.

– The EU's negotiations on how to use the Russian Central Bank's funds in European banks are also very important in order to enable Ukraine to defend itself for the next two to three years. A decision on this will probably come very soon, she says.

Ukrainian EU membership

Riddervold also points out that Ukraine wants membership in the EU, which has so far been difficult. Both because EU membership requires fulfilling a number of conditions that Ukraine is currently unable to meet – and because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has vetoed it.

– The EU is now trying to work around Orban to get Ukraine into the EU. There is also discussion about whether Ukraine can become a gradual member, where various obligations will come into force gradually. EU membership would be an important security guarantee for Ukraine.

– But the process leading to a ceasefire will take time, and as long as the pressure on Russia is not great enough, we will not move forward. This is Russia's responsibility, not Ukraine's, adds Riddervold.

Published: October 25, 2025 11:16 AM