Persistent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure have neutralized approximately one-fifth of its fuel production capabilities, a critical situation in some regions of the country.
This has caused fuel supply problems, driven up prices at gas stations and forced a ban on gasoline exports to balance the domestic market.
More than a dozen refineries in the Volgograd, Krasnodar, Samara, Rostov and Saratov regions, as well as international pipelines such as Druzhba and port terminals such as Ust-Luga in the Baltic Sea, have had to halt operations several times in recent weeks following impacts by Ukrainian drones or missiles.
According to independent sources, kyiv has blocked between 17 and 21% of Russia's processing potential, figures about which the Russian side remains completely silent.
Ukraine began systematically attacking refineries and fuel depots in the Russian rear in the first months of 2024, a practice that has grown in intensity over the months and whose objective is to cut off supplies to the Russian war machine.
Thus, in recent months, Ukrainian forces have managed to cause damage to the Afipskaya and Slavianskaya refineries in Krasnodar, and the Kuybyshevskaya and Novokuybyshevskaya plants in Samara.
In mid-August, the Novoshabhitinsk (Rostov) refinery burned for more than three days after being hit by an enemy drone.
At the end of the month, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported attacks on refineries in Krasnodar and Samara, which it blamed for supplying the Russian military.
To understand the scale of the damage, the Kubishevskaya refinery is capable of processing 7 million tonnes annually, or around 140,000 barrels per day. In 2024, the plant produced 800,000 tonnes of gasoline and 1.4 million tonnes of diesel, as well as other derivatives.
Pulse over the price of gasoline
This situation has significantly affected gasoline prices in Russia, which have experienced an upward trend, reaching levels between 57.88 and 64.96 rubles per liter (0.73-0.82 dollars per liter) and an expectation of an increase of 0.5-2.5% in September.
Although Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attempted to sound reassuring by asserting that"the fuel market is fully covered," the Russian government decided to play it safe and banned gasoline exports until the end of October.
During the month of September this ban will affect all exporters, both producing and non-producing companies, but from October 1st it will not apply to producers.
This is not a novelty, as Russian authorities periodically ban gasoline exports, a measure first taken in September 2023 and extended until August 31, 2024 for the same reasons.
Russia has been forced to impose these restrictions because rising fuel prices on the international market have encouraged Russian companies to increase exports of gasoline and diesel, which has led to higher prices on the domestic market.
According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), rising gasoline prices, the Russian Central Bank's lending policies, and increased payments to military personnel and employees of the Russian military-industrial sector"will lead to a sharp rise in inflation, a fall in consumer purchasing power, a devaluation of the ruble in the short and medium term, and macroeconomic instability in Russia."
Hungary pays the price
In its efforts to block the income channels to Russia, Ukraine also did not leave unattended the Druzhba oil pipeline, which supplies crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia, countries that not only insist on continuing to buy Russian oil but also oppose Brussels' policies regarding Ukraine, rejecting its entry into NATO and the EU.
In recent weeks alone, Kyiv has launched four attacks on pipeline pumping stations, the most recent being on August 29, which damaged a facility in the town of Naitopovichi in the Bryansk region.
This has caused tensions with neighboring Hungary, which is supplied through this infrastructure and has described the attacks as aggressions against its energy security and national sovereignty, threatening Ukraine with a possible cut-off of electricity supplies.
These attacks, combined with those on the Ust-Luga port terminal, reduced Russian crude oil exports to 2.72 million barrels per day (mbd) by the end of August, 320,000 less than in the middle of the month.
