The United Nations is preparing to enter a crucial phase as the term of current Secretary-General Antonio Guterres draws to a close, scheduled for December 31, 2026, amid widespread international anticipation of the upcoming event and its repercussions on regional and international issues, most notably the Western Sahara conflict.
This entitlement comes amid close monitoring of Guterres’s recent term, which witnessed radical shifts in the international approach to the Moroccan Sahara issue within the halls of the United Nations, through the issuance of interim reports and the introduction of multiple mediation initiatives, which made the conflict a key focus of Morocco’s foreign policy, amidst ongoing UN efforts to facilitate dialogue between the parties concerned.
Regarding the upcoming race, several official nominations have emerged to lead the UN organization, most notably former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, who has a distinguished political and diplomatic record, Costa Rican Rebecca Greenspan, Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and Argentine Rafael Grossi, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
According to official data, the final decision will depend on the agreement of the UN Security Council, particularly the five permanent members, before the recommendation is submitted to the General Assembly for ratification, in a process that remains shrouded in secrecy despite recent steps to enhance transparency, including publishing vision statements for each candidate, disclosing funding sources, and making programs available on the official UN platform.
The next administration of the United Nations remains at the heart of Rabat’s concerns, given the role played by the current Secretary-General in managing the fabricated conflict over the Sahara, and continuing to support the autonomy process under Moroccan sovereignty. The positions of the Portuguese Guterres have motivated Rabat to strengthen its diplomatic dynamics, both at the level of bilateral relations with members of the Security Council and within the context of its African and international efforts to establish a political solution to the conflict.
The upcoming election has a special symbolic dimension given the international pressure to choose the first woman to lead the UN in its more than eighty-year history. The nominations of Bachelet and Greenspan reflect this momentum, at a time when the international community continues to emphasize the importance of women’s leadership in promoting the humanitarian and developmental dimensions of UN work.
Challenges of the stage
Commenting on this issue, Abdel Fattah Belamchi, President of the Moroccan Center for Parallel Diplomacy and Dialogue of Civilizations, said that the end of Secretary-General António Guterres’ term brings to a close a phase characterized by an intensity of international obligations and multiple cross-border crises, from armed conflicts in a number of regions to the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic; these are issues that the Portuguese Guterres faced according to a pragmatic approach based on expanding the scope of mediation and strengthening the presence of the United Nations in areas of tension.
Al-Balmashi added, in a statement to the Hespress electronic newspaper, that the Secretary-General, during his two consecutive terms, was keen to give developmental dimensions a central place in managing international conflicts, considering them as a fundamental approach to establishing stability within countries and societies; a trend that has come to characterize the work of the organization within an international environment that is experiencing profound transformations and differences in the balance of power.
The same political analyst noted that recent years have witnessed a clear momentum in the presence of the Moroccan Sahara issue within the United Nations agenda, through periodic reports and initiatives aimed at maintaining lines of communication between the parties, stressing that “the Secretary-General dealt with the file according to a preventive approach that works to prevent any slippage that would threaten security and stability in the region.”
The same spokesperson continued: “Guterres was keen to keep abreast of the various stages related to the conflict, including the moments that almost affected peace and security in the region,” adding that “the developments at the Guerguerat crossing constituted a pivotal stage that ended practices that were hindering the movement of traffic between Morocco and Mauritania, and opened the way for consolidating stability and ensuring freedom of movement definitively, in line with the UN efforts aimed at sparing the region any tension that would affect regional balances.”
The expert in diplomatic affairs explained that the current stage reveals the limitations of international law in the context of increasing complexities within the United Nations system, especially in light of the different balances of the Security Council compared to what they were after the end of the Cold War, pointing to “the emergence of renewed demands to reconsider the representation of rising powers, such as Japan, Germany and countries from the African continent, which translates the international reality as it is, not as it was during the mid-1940s.”
Post-Guterres
The professor of international relations at Cadi Ayyad University in Marrakech stressed that Guterres has remained a defender of the option of a peaceful settlement through the gateway of development, an approach to which he is credited in his handling of a number of issues, including the issue of the Moroccan Sahara, regarding which he was keen to invoke the legitimacy and legality associated with the development approach of Morocco, noting that “the Secretary-General participated in several international events hosted by the Kingdom, which reflects his awareness of the particularity of the Moroccan experience within its regional environment.”
Regarding the position of the United Nations in light of these transformations, the spokesperson stressed that decisions are no longer subject to traditional administrative procedures, but are more influenced by the considerations of influential countries within the Security Council, especially the permanent members, whose presence has become crucial in directing positions towards emerging challenges.
In response to a question about international interest in female leadership of the United Nations, and whether Morocco supports this trend and which of the potential candidates is closest to the Kingdom, Belamchi affirmed that “Moroccan foreign policy is supported by the decisions of the state and its institutions, and maintains a balanced distance with international officials, in full respect of the principles framing multilateral relations and international law; these are factors that make any future Secretary-General deal with the Kingdom in accordance with what is required by mutual respect and recognition of its regional and international status,” highlighting that “a number of the candidates’ countries have strong relations with Morocco.”
The same expert added that the next stage will require international leadership capable of absorbing geopolitical shifts and accelerating the pace of reform within the organization, while maintaining its role as a collective mechanism to ensure international security and stability, in a way that responds to the aspirations of the peoples and restores confidence in the effectiveness of the multilateral system.
Unique opportunity
Abdelwahab Elkain, president of the Africa Watch organization and deputy coordinator of the Sahrawi NGO Alliance, said that the end of this year was marked by two prominent international events that indicate that the United Nations is entering a phase of profound structural changes. The first is the official launch of the process to select a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres, as his term is about to end on December 31, 2026. The second is the noticeable shift in the international position towards finding a political solution to the Western Sahara conflict following the Security Council’s adoption of Resolution 2797, which endorsed the Moroccan autonomy initiative presented in 2007 as the most appropriate framework for the anticipated negotiation process.
Al-Kayne added, in his statement to Hespress, that the anticipated change in the leadership of the United Nations constitutes a “unique opportunity” to push the political settlement process in the Moroccan Sahara towards a clearer horizon, provided that the new leadership adopts a consistent diplomatic approach based on a balance between regional interests and the orientations of the major powers, and respect for human rights standards in the region.
The same spokesperson stressed that 2025 will be a “pivotal moment” in the process of reshaping the UN leadership and in the course of the regional conflict over the Moroccan Sahara, recalling the joint message issued by the Security Council and the General Assembly on November 26, 2025, which officially launched the process of selecting the new Secretary-General of the United Nations to succeed Guterres.
The deputy coordinator of the Sahrawi NGO Alliance pointed out that Security Council Resolution 2797/2025 constitutes a “real turning point” in the course of the conflict, because for the first time it explicitly declares support for the Moroccan autonomy plan as “the most realistic and credible solution”; this represents the beginning of a diplomatic shift that is reshaping a scene that has lasted for decades of stagnation.
Regarding the challenges awaiting the new Secretary-General, the source told Hespress that the UN is facing a complex situation due to global geopolitical crises, the repercussions of climate change and migration, and the growing demand for structural reform within the United Nations. This makes the position of Secretary-General “at the heart of a difficult test” that requires a figure capable of managing multilateral pressures without compromising the normative and mediating role of the organization.
The expert on the Sahara conflict noted that the commitments of Resolution 2797 put everyone before a clear path that redefines the legal and political framework of the conflict from the model of “traditional self-determination towards secession” to the horizon of “internal self-determination” within expanded autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty; a transformation that Sahrawi civil society activists have long advocated for because of the guarantees it provides for rights and political and cultural integration.
Al-Kain added that the transition in the leadership of the UN Secretariat “may give additional impetus to the ongoing political process, given the possibility of the new Secretary-General engaging in a balanced dynamic, and with a new spirit that restores confidence between the parties and pushes towards serious negotiations within the framework defined in the autonomy initiative.”
The same spokesperson stated that the arrival of a new leadership at the head of the organization also provides “an opportunity to reduce the intensity of competition between the major powers over the Sahara issue, and opens the way for a renewed international commitment, away from the previous political maneuvers that Algeria and the Polisario Front have relied on to try to obstruct the international trend.”
In this context, the same expert highlighted that the Sahrawi NGO Alliance strongly supports continuing to build on the momentum created by Resolution 2797, as it is “a clear embodiment of the principle of internal self-determination,” based on guarantees of engagement, rights, transparency and accountability, within the sovereign Moroccan state, thus enabling a modern approach to self-determination that is consistent with international law and responds to contemporary democratic standards.
Abdelwahab Elkain concluded his remarks to Hespress by emphasizing that “injecting new blood into the leadership of the General Secretariat will constitute a real test of the United Nations’ ability to achieve tangible progress in the conflict, and create a realistic opportunity to reach a consensual solution that combines sovereignty, autonomy and human rights, and restores the credibility of diplomacy as a central means of resolving international conflicts.”
