The 2025 edition of the Morocco Radar report, published by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), stands out as a strategic document of great significance on the Western Sahara issue. The Foundation, a major player in the German political landscape and closely aligned with the main party in the ruling coalition, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), goes beyond mere analytical monitoring. It offers a surgically precise interpretation of Resolution 2797, adopted on October 31, 2025, which is presented as a decisive turning point. KAS is all the more important as one of the European think tanks that directly influence government policy, particularly in diplomatic matters. When the institution asserts that Resolution 2797 represents a historic break, it is in fact providing a framework that will shape how foreign ministries, European institutions, and economic actors approach the Western Sahara issue in the coming months. The report's importance therefore lies as much in the precision of its analyses as in the political and intellectual authority of its author.
The first strength of this text is its highlighting of the gains achieved by Morocco. For the first time since the issue was submitted to the United Nations system, the Security Council explicitly designated Morocco's autonomy initiative as the sole basis for negotiations, mentioning it six times in a one-page text that replaces the previous year's forty-three-paragraph resolution. This radical condensing of the text reflects an international desire for simplification and clarification, which clearly benefits Morocco. The preamble affirms that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty represents the most viable solution, while the operational paragraphs exclude any reference to a referendum and task the Secretary-General and his Personal Envoy with facilitating negotiations exclusively within this framework.h1 The text emphasizes that it also recalls that the initial American draft already described autonomy as the sole framework for negotiation, meaning that the prevailing diplomatic trend was, from the outset, in the direction desired by Rabat. In this context, Morocco appears as the key player in managing the aftermath, the one that best anticipated the shifts in the diplomatic landscape, capitalized on its progress, and transformed a favorable dynamic into an institutional outcome at the UN.
The report also details the extent of the advantage gained. The one-year mandate granted to MINURSO, accompanied by a strategic review after six months, creates time pressure on the other parties, pressure that Morocco can exploit. The Foundation also interprets the recognition of sovereignty in the preamble as the most direct political signal sent by the Security Council in decades. It explains that this new architecture allows Morocco to move from an argumentative phase to an operational one. The Kingdom must now update and elaborate on its 2007 initiative to transform it into a firmly institutionalized negotiating text. This is work that King Mohammed VI has already called for and which is currently underway. In KAS's view, this opportunity opens a new diplomatic phase in which Rabat holds the initiative and its offer becomes the very definition of the solution. Morocco must therefore assert, diplomatically and unambiguously, that the only legitimate discussion no longer concerns the principle, but rather the modalities for implementing its own plan, the report states.
The report then highlights the expected benefits. The first is none other than the consolidation of international legal recognition of Moroccan sovereignty through the implementation of the autonomy framework. Once autonomy under sovereignty becomes the accepted basis for the settlement, the question of sovereignty itself will shift from a matter of dispute to one of application. The European Court of Justice and other international bodies will have to align their approaches with the framework defined by the Security Council, which will allow for the effective resolution of long-standing legal disputes concerning trade agreements, resource exploitation, and territorial status, the document emphasizes.
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The second benefit is economic: securing investments, accelerating infrastructure development such as the port of Dakhla, the strategic role of the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, and integrating the Atlantic coast into African energy and trade routes. The combination of political recognition and economic visibility transforms the Sahara from a geopolitical issue into an engine of growth.
Clearing up ambiguities
The document does not, however, gloss over the gray areas, particularly those related to ambiguities in UN language. The first concerns the statements of Staffan de Mistura. The Special Envoy for the Sahara asserts that the resolution establishes a framework that does not prejudge the outcome, even though the text explicitly states that autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty constitutes the most realistic solution. Under the guise of not upsetting the other parties, this contradiction creates an interpretative ambiguity that the report considers potentially dangerous. It would allow certain actors to claim that all options remain open, whereas the Security Council has only retained one: autonomy.
The second area of concern relates to the expression"genuine autonomy." The Council uses a strong term, but without ever defining it. This lack of definition was necessary, but it opens the door to dispute. Morocco's adversaries could argue that its initiative, even in its updated form, is not"genuine" in the sense they themselves arbitrarily assign to this term. This semantic flaw is described by the report as a"structural vulnerability" that Rabat must address by transforming its proposal into an international benchmark.
The report explains how Algeria and the Polisario Front could exploit these ambiguities to paralyze the process. Their first strategy would be to seize upon De Mistura's balancing act to try to reintroduce a false parity between the proposals. They could argue that if the Special Envoy refuses to prejudge the outcome, then no solution can be considered predetermined, thus giving them a pretext to revive debates on options buried by the resolution. Their second lever would lie in the polemical use of the term"genuine" to challenge any Moroccan version of autonomy deemed almost inevitably insufficient."The opponents will inevitably argue that Morocco's plan is not sufficiently genuine," the report continues. They would demand further concessions to prolong the process, knowing that escalating demands is often a tactic to freeze negotiations. A third tactic would be to try to shift the debate towards preliminary measures, preconditions or parallel negotiation paths, in order to broaden the strict framework of resolution 2797. Procedural obfuscation would slow down the new dynamic, or even reinstate a status quo favorable to Algeria.
Algeria at an impasse
However, and this is a central point of the report, Algeria and the Polisario Front no longer have a real choice. Algeria and the Polisario Front find themselves in an unprecedented strategic impasse, the report states. The American initiative by Steve Witkoff, advisor to US President Donald Trump, which promises an agreement within sixty days, even if this timeframe is unrealistic, changes the geopolitical equation. This is no longer a technical UN process, but a US diplomatic move with direct bilateral implications. Algeria cannot simply reject the initiative as it has done before, nor can it afford to alienate an administration that controls essential economic partnerships, security cooperation, and the support of international financial institutions, the document emphasizes.
The report reiterates that the US administration is seeking concrete progress and that refusing to engage would have a high geopolitical cost. As for the Polisario Front, its room for maneuver is even more limited, particularly due to the threat of US designation as a terrorist entity. Its political survival depends on Algeria, which itself is being pressured to participate. The Polisario Front could therefore try to obscure the objectives, but it cannot evade the process.
The report focuses at length on what Morocco must now do. The priority is to transform its updated autonomy plan into an international standard. The objective is to remove any ambiguity by making this new version the operational definition of what the UN means by genuine autonomy. This implies integrating the 2011 constitutional reforms, the advanced regionalization framework, and detailed institutional guarantees. Morocco must also maintain diplomatic pressure to prevent any attempt to re-politicize the issue or shift the debate away from the framework of Resolution 2797. Finally, it must present its plan not only as a geopolitical solution but also as a credible model of regional governance, attractive to local populations and compatible with international standards.
By articulating a clear, detailed, and institutionally sound vision, Morocco can consolidate its victory, transform the political turning point into a legal one, and shift the issue from a contentious battleground to the gradual implementation of a solution that the international community now considers the most viable. The strategic objective must be to make the updated Moroccan autonomy plan the operational definition of genuine autonomy.
