FAQ

Ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting, there is speculation about Ukraine cession of territory to Russia. Which territories could this affect – and what would the consequences be?

President Donald Trump's comments to reporters have caused concern in Ukraine, as well as among the US's partners. Are the US and Russia preparing an agreement that would force Ukraine to relinquish some territories—possibly in exchange for Russia's withdrawal from other areas?

What is the military situation?

Almost three and a half years after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia controls nearly a fifth of its neighboring country's territory. The Russian army has been on the advance, particularly since last year, and has seized increasing amounts of territory in eastern Ukraine in recent months.

According to the British Ministry of Defense in its regular intelligence update on the Ukraine war, Russian ground forces most likely captured approximately 500 to 550 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July. A similar amount was captured in June, after these advances had already increased since March.

International observers agree: Russian President Vladimir Putin remains convinced that time and Russia's vast superiority in military strength and materiel are playing into his hands. Therefore, he has so far appeared largely unimpressed by threats and ultimatums from Trump.

Officially, Russia has not yet retracted any of its war aims. These go far beyond territorial ambitions and are designed to transform Ukraine into a state dependent on Russia, committed to neutrality, not joining NATO, drastically reducing its army, and no longer receiving military aid from the West.

Which Ukrainian territories does Russia control?

Since the uprising of the Ukrainian population against the then pro-Russian government under President Viktor Yanukovych, Russia has gradually, in violation of international law, wrested a significant portion of its internationally recognized territory—including by treaty with Russia. In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in a surprise attack and ensured that the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east seceded from Ukraine.

Russia has since annexed the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and, following a constitutional amendment in 2022, also claimed the Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia for itself. However, the Russian army has not fully taken control of any of these regions. It has made the most progress in the Luhansk region. There, the Ukrainian army now holds only a narrow strip of a few square kilometers on the borders with the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Luhansk is thus almost entirely under Russian control.

The Russian army controls about two-thirds of the Donetsk region, and here too, its advance is steady, incurring considerable losses. However, since 2014, Ukraine has established a so-called fortified belt here, which stretches in an arc from north to south along the H-20 highway and includes several major cities such as Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Druzhkivka, and Konstiantynivka. The Institute for the Study of War describes it as a major obstacle to the Russian army's attempt to conquer Ukraine. A withdrawal would represent a significant strategic setback for the Ukrainian army.

In the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia, the front runs along the Dnipro River - here the Ukrainian army defends the areas on the northern side of the bank.

Which Russian territories has Ukraine occupied?

In August 2024, Ukraine launched a surprise advance into the Kursk region, bordering the Ukrainian region of Sumy, and temporarily occupied an area of approximately 1,300 square kilometers.

However, little of this remains – by spring, the Ukrainian army had to gradually abandon almost all of the territory it had conquered. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on the anniversary that the Ukrainian army was still operating there, but without providing further details.

What could a territorial cession look like?

Citing its constitution, Russia has so far insisted on handing over the four regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, even though they are not entirely under Russian control. However, Russia now appears to be deviating from this line.

According to several US media outlets, Russia is said to have demanded in talks with Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, that Ukraine withdraw from Luhansk and Donetsk and recognize Crimea as part of Russia. In return, the front line in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions would be frozen—meaning that these regions would remain partially under Ukraine's control. Afterward, negotiations on a ceasefire could begin.

The Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera published an interview with Kremlin adviser Viktor Suslov on Monday. In it, he outlined two options for the Trump-Putin meeting. Putin's number one option is an agreement on Ukraine's withdrawal from the Donbass region in exchange for a withdrawal of the Russian army from the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions. This would be complemented by other political demands, such as Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership, demilitarization of the country, and reform of the federal system.

These points should be determined in a bilateral agreement between the US and Russia—the participation of Ukraine and the Europeans is not planned. Suslov emphasized that a year ago, Russia demanded the transfer of four regions and now demands only Donbas. By Donbas, Suslov likely means the Donetsk region in particular, since Luhansk has already been almost entirely occupied.

Should Zelensky reject this, Putin sees a second option: that the US would stop all military support for Ukraine and also ensure that US weapons do not reach Ukraine via Europe.

What is the truth behind the rumors about a territory swap?

A territorial swap would mean not only Ukraine giving up territory, but Russia also withdrawing from its own territory. Trump fueled this with his remark at last Friday's press conference."There will be a mutually beneficial swap of territory," he told reporters, adding,"We'll get something back, we'll trade something," and that it's very complicated. The president didn't elaborate. On Monday, Trump used the phrase again, predicting,"There will be some kind of swap."

So far, it's completely unclear whether Russia could actually be willing to do this—and what this willingness might refer to. There have been no hints from the Russian side. Rather, Putin's words from the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg in June still hang in the air. There, he said:"Wherever the boot of a Russian soldier treads, that belongs to us." That doesn't sound like a willingness to abandon conquered territories.

It's also quite possible that Special Envoy Witkoff misunderstood Putin on crucial details during their meeting last Wednesday. Several media outlets, including Bild, reported over the weekend that Witkoff had interpreted Putin's demands and statements regarding Zaporizhia and Kherson as meaning that Russia would withdraw from the region. Trump, after being informed accordingly by Witkoff, also communicated this to European heads of government in a telephone conversation last Wednesday.

When the European representatives, irritated by this, demanded further information, Witkoff gradually changed his account in two further telephone conversations. This left the European representatives astonished.

Several international media reports also mentioned further misunderstandings by Witkoff regarding a possible ceasefire.

Is the idea of a territorial abandonment new?

No, this scenario has been raised repeatedly in the past. However, it depends on whether this is a de facto recognition of Russia's control over part of Ukrainian territory or a legal recognition. The possibility of de facto, i.e., conceptually temporary, recognition has also been hinted at by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the past, including on the ARD program"Maischberger."

There, last February, he emphasized that Ukraine was not prepared to permanently relinquish parts of its territory:"Legally, we will not relinquish our territories." One day, the parts of his country that Russia conquered and annexed in violation of international law would once again become part of the country's territory:"Of course, we will bring everything back. Respect for international law will return. If not today, then tomorrow."

Speculation about such an agreement with Russia has increased, especially since Trump's re-inauguration in January. In April, Trump's special envoy, Vitkoff, reportedly presented a draft ceasefire agreement to European representatives at a meeting in Paris. The Reuters news agency reported that it included robust security guarantees for Ukraine, Ukraine's renunciation of NATO membership, de jure recognition of Crimea's status as Russian, and de facto recognition of the Russian status of the captured parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. In return, Ukraine would have regained territory in the Kharkiv region and control of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, previously occupied by Russia, which would have been placed under US management.

Recently, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said it would be almost impossible to avoid discussing the future of the Russian-controlled Ukrainian territories. Rutte demanded in a TV interview that the facts must be acknowledged. However, he emphasized the importance of distinguishing between"de facto" and "de jure" recognition. As an example, he pointed to the West's decades-long stance on the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states.

The steps leading up to the possible cession of territory are also crucial when considering possible territorial ceding: Does such recognition mark the beginning of an agreement—or its end, after, for example, a comprehensive ceasefire has been reached, possibly also backed by international guarantees? The positions of Ukraine and Russia diverge fundamentally here. While Ukraine is only willing to discuss further steps after a comprehensive ceasefire, Russia is making Ukraine's withdrawal from the territories claimed by the Kremlin a prerequisite for a ceasefire.

What would a territorial surrender mean for Ukraine?

If Russia demands that Ukraine completely withdraw from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and recognize their affiliation with the Russian Federation, Zelenskyy would have to amend the constitution – and this also applies to the status of Crimea. Article 133 defines the territory of Ukraine. Article 1 designates the Autonomous Republic of Crimea as part of Ukraine. Article 2 also lists Crimea and names the other oblasts that make up the territory – including the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

Whether Zelenskyy would receive the necessary majority for this is currently unlikely. Moreover, the constitution would require a referendum on any change in the country's territory. According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Institute in late April/early May, almost 60 percent of Ukrainians oppose such a cession. President Zelenskyy himself categorically ruled out relinquishing territory without a fight again this weekend.

Militarily, the scenario described would give the Russian army a significant strategic advantage and, unless Ukraine has sufficient time to build new defenses, would make it easier for it to launch a new attack on the Kharkiv region, with Ukraine's second-largest city of the same name, and on the Ukrainian heartland.

Ukraine would also permanently lose a region rich in valuable natural resources – in which the US also has a declared interest. Above all, it would leave hundreds of thousands of people defenseless at the mercy of Russian occupiers, who are known for their inhumane actions in conquered territories of Ukraine. According to a survey by the Ukrainian Statistical Office, around 8.8 million people lived in the four regions in 2022. This number has been dramatically reduced by conquest, destruction, and flight. But according to an estimate by the Institute of Demography, more than 600,000 people still lived in the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Kherson region last year.

If they were threatened with Russian occupation, many residents would probably flee, if they could – to other regions of Ukraine or to European countries.