Why is Iran at the heart of conflicts in the Middle East?

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In recent years, the world has seen an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, and Iran has been involved in all the hotbeds of tension in the region.

When the United States joined with Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, outrage and condemnation came from Russia. Moscow’s ambassador to the UN said Washington was opening “a Pandora’s box,” and Tehran’s top diplomat rushed to the Kremlin to seek support from President Vladimir Putin.

Moscow could instead gain some short-term benefits from the Iran-Israel war, such as rising oil prices to help Russia's flagging economy or diverting world attention from its three-year-old war in Ukraine.

An ally in need of help

Russia’s ties with Iran have grown since Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Tehran has supplied Moscow with Shahed drones and the technology to build them. Drones have been a key weapon in the war.

The Kremlin hailed the new era of Russian-Iranian relations in January 2025 , when Moscow and Tehran signed a strategic partnership agreement aimed at fostering economic, political and military ties.

The timing was significant, said Renad Mansour, a senior fellow in Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program. “The rapprochement happened after 2024, which was a very bad year for Iran,” he said, having lost regional allies amid the overthrow of Bashar Assad in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah.

“Iran wanted to count on Russia,” he said. But in practice, the deal has had little meaning since Israel’s attacks on Iran. It merely prohibits Russia and Iran from helping any country that has attacked the other, and is not a mutual defense pact.

“From the Iranian perspective, there has been some disappointment with how much Russia is willing to support,” Mansour said. “They are now feeling that when facing a colossal giant like Israel and the US, Russia will not want to intervene.”

The Kremlin has bristled at suggestions that it has abandoned or neglected Iran. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday denied allegations that Moscow had not provided significant support to Tehran. Many people want to “spoil the partnership between Moscow and Tehran,” he said.

“Russia has actually supported Iran with the clear position it has taken. And of course, we intend to further develop our relations with Iran,” he said.

Asked on Monday whether Russia would provide equipment such as air defenses to Tehran, he said: “It all depends on what the Iranian side, our Iranian friends, say.”

Israel has destroyed most of Iran's air defenses, and replacing them would not be easy, even if Russia wanted to.

Iran urgently needs such systems, Arman Mahmoudian, a senior fellow at the Institute for Global and National Security, told The Associated Press.

“(But) Russia itself needs these same weapons — both air defense systems and missiles — for its own war effort in Ukraine,” he said. “The likelihood of Russia meeting Iran’s requests is slim.”

That need will only become more pressing if Iran fails to supply Russia with attack drones, which are increasingly used by Iranian forces, which would leave little scope for exports, Mahmoudian said.

“Another critical factor is that Israel has been extensively targeting Iran’s drone and missile production facilities. Even if the war ends soon, Iran will need time to recover and rebuild these sites,” he added.

Moscow's balance in the Middle East

Iran’s demands are not the only ones Moscow is trying to balance. Russia also wants to maintain good relations with Israel. The two countries’ militaries operate together in Syria and have been careful to maintain close contact to avoid direct confrontation. Israel remained neutral during the war in Ukraine, cautious not to antagonize Russia because of its large Jewish population.

Putin told a conference in St. Petersburg on Friday that Israel is home to nearly 2 million people from Russia and other former Soviet nations, “a factor we always take into account.”

Moscow is also keeping a close eye on its relationship with Washington, a relationship that has been renewed since President Donald Trump returned to office this year. Phone calls have resumed between the leaders of the two countries for the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine.

“For now, Trump has shown no inclination to endorse the new sanctions against Russia proposed by a bipartisan majority in the US Senate,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. “But if Putin significantly angers Trump on Iran, Trump could change tack and impose tough new sanctions on Russia.”

While the war between Israel and Iran has triggered new complexities for Moscow, it has also created opportunities.

The confrontation in the Middle East is likely to distract Western attention and resources from the war in Ukraine and make it easier for Russia to pursue its battlefield goals.

Rising oil prices would also benefit Moscow, which relies on fuel exports to boost its budget, allowing the Kremlin to finance arms production, combat rising inflation and offer the significant financial bonuses that attract Russians to military service.

Moscow has also sought on several occasions to position itself as a potential negotiator in the war between Iran and Israel, although Putin himself has stepped back from that role after Trump rejected the idea of Kremlin mediation amid the war in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that Moscow was ready to help resolve the conflict but would not act as a mediator.

Ksenia Svetlova, a Moscow-born former member of Israel's parliament and a research associate at Chatham House, says that “Russia has no mechanism of pressure or influence over Iran.”

She noted that the war in Ukraine had exhausted its resources and that the failure to prevent Assad's fall showed that Moscow's influence in the region had waned.

“To be successful as a mediator, you would have to get the Iranians to give in,” she said. It remains to be seen whether Russia will be able to increase its influence in the Middle East.

The war in Ukraine has left Moscow overwhelmed, said Mansour, a fellow at Chatham House.

Following the ouster of Assad following years of Russian military support, the Kremlin is already making overtures to Syria’s new government, as well as an effort to reach out to other states in the region and beyond with transactional agreements that suit both sides.

“You can lose battles, you can lose allies, but I am sure that Russia will maintain its influence in the Middle East, including in Syria, where it is already negotiating with the new government,” Mansour said.

Russia's actions in the war between Iran and Israel may have other unforeseen long-term consequences.

“Even if the Islamic Republic survives the war, Russia’s inability or unwillingness to help its closest ally in the Middle East will inevitably raise questions about Moscow’s reliability,” Mahmoudian said.

“Other regional players — such as Egypt and Turkey — have recently sought closer ties with Russia, but seeing Moscow fail to meaningfully defend or support Tehran may lead them to reconsider how reliable Russia can be as a partner,” he said.