NATO has ensured that its summit in The Hague marks a turning point in the collective defense of the most powerful military alliance in the modern world. The 32 allies have finally signed an agreement to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade. Spain has also signed it, despite its reluctance to commit to spending that it considers unnecessary and politicized, and which has prompted a threat from US President Donald Trump to make it pay for its refusal with tariffs.
The spending increase is a"qualitative leap," stressed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who aims to make the organization a"stronger, fairer, and more lethal" Alliance at a time when threats to the world order have multiplied in recent decades, especially from Russia, considered a"long-term threat." The proponents of this initiative hope it will serve as a guarantee of security, in addition to securing the support of the United States, which recently, since Donald Trump returned to the White House, has hinted at threats of disengaging from the Alliance, of which it is an essential element, if the spending burden is not better shared.
The spending increase agreement reached, the highest in the Alliance's more than seven decades of history,"means that no matter what the challenge, whether it comes from Russia or terrorism, a cyberattack, sabotage, or strategic competition, this Alliance is and will remain ready, willing, and able to defend every inch of Allied territory and ensure that our one billion citizens can continue to live in freedom and security," Rutte said at the end of one of the most tense summits in recent NATO history.
The"transformative" decision—as celebrated by the Secretary General, who has not skimped on hyperbole or unabashed praise for Trump—to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 is made explicit in the brief final declaration, consisting of just five points.
Following Spain's refusal to commit to an increase in spending that it says is unnecessary and responds to political needs—to appease the United States—the declaration has refined its language to avoid using terms such as"all," "we," or "each ally," which appeared in previous drafts, and thus be able to be signed by all 32 member states, despite the fact that Spain has obtained a parallel flexibility that will allow it to dedicate a smaller budget, which it claims is sufficient, to meet its military objectives.
“If we had accepted 5%, Spain would have had to allocate an additional €300 billion to defense until 2035. Where would that money come from? From cuts in healthcare and education. What I'm clear about, listening to the opposition leader, is that if another president were here today, Spain would have signed the 5% defense budget, and that would be a complete mistake for Spain, and that's why we haven't done it. We have decided to go down the path of capabilities,” Sánchez stated at the end of the meeting. Spain has signed the final declaration, but because it has a letter from Rutte that gives it flexibility to see if it can achieve the agreed capabilities, which are secret, with 2.1%, as the Spanish government is proposing.
The pact, however, has drawn Trump's ire. Shortly before leaving, the American lashed out at Sánchez, threatening to start a trade war directly with Spain."They're the only country that refuses to pay; it's a bit of a cop-out, so they're going to pay through trade (...) we're going to make them pay double," the American president criticized, saying he would negotiate"directly" with the Spanish prime minister.
The brevity of the statement, like the summit itself, lasting just a few hours, is yet another sign that the meeting in The Hague had practically only one purpose: to appease the volatile Trump, who despite everything took care to heat up the atmosphere already during his outbound trip with some initial threats to Spain —“it is a problem,” said Trump;“Spain is always the solution, it is never a problem,” replied Sánchez in The Hague—.
Doubts about Article 5
The American also cast doubt on his commitment to Article 5, which enshrines mutual defense in the event of an attack on one of the allies, although he had already backtracked—once again—in The Hague, asserting that,"of course," he supports the core article of the Alliance's defensive and deterrent concept."If I didn't support it, what would I be doing here?" he retorted on Wednesday.
Despite everything, the nervousness surrounding Trump's unpredictable position—Rutte avoided answering what would happen if, now that he has achieved the 5% increase, Washington decides to ask for more—remains present. Hence, virtually all the leaders present at the meeting agreed, the importance of agreeing on a spending figure that even the US cannot meet, but which should serve to ensure Washington's continued membership in the Alliance and avoid hasty gestures, such as a withdrawal of US troops from Europe before the allies have time to replace them with their own forces.
"We're with them 100%," Trump insisted upon arriving at the NATO meeting, having secured the agreement that allows him to return home, which he claims—as have Rutte and other allies—as a personal victory."It's a monumental victory for the US because we were paying much more than we were supposed to. And it was quite unfair," the Republican celebrated."It's a very important historical milestone. Something that was never thought possible." "If you hadn't been elected president, we would never have been able to increase NATO's budget," a flattering Rutte had told him shortly beforehand.
Review in 2029
The agreed-upon agreement includes a 2029 review clause, which is clinging to both Spain, which openly rejects the proposed 5%, and countries like Belgium, which have doubts about its ability to meet these spending targets. However, no one has been willing to stand up to Trump as Spain's Pedro Sánchez has. Most leaders avoided making direct accusations against him, but they made it clear that he had stood alone in his defiance of the consensus, which, despite everything, he has also joined.
“What Spain says about being able to achieve 2.1% is not correct. We would not be able to sufficiently deter and defend ourselves,” criticized Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, a Socialist. Even Belgian Bart De Wever, whose country is unlikely to meet the imposed targets—in any case, they are not included in the recently approved military budget for the coming years—and who has also hinted that he will drag his feet until at least the 2029 revision, was ironic about Spain's calculations: “NATO strategists have calculated the costs and consider that, at current prices, 3.5% of GDP is needed to achieve it (...) if Pedro Sánchez can do it with 2.1%, he would be a genius, and genius inspires people,” said the Belgian nationalist.
Rutte declined to elaborate further on a controversy that forced him to negotiate until the last minute."We can agree that we disagree, that they believe they can achieve their capacity targets with 2.1% spending. NATO says it has to be 3.5%, like all other allies," he simply stated at the final press conference.
Meanwhile, the NATO Secretary General recalled that part of the agreement is that"all allies must report on how they are achieving the capability targets," indicating that it will be possible to analyze at that time whether Spain is actually meeting them with the planned spending. And in 2029,"we will review everything," as established in the agreement's clause. Therefore, at the latest by that date, adjustments may be required, presumably, he said, upwards and in accordance with their calculations.
With the back-and-forth over partner contributions, Ukraine, the main protagonist of previous summits, was relegated to the background. But not forgotten. The allied leaders were careful to embrace President Volodymyr Zelensky, invited to the gala dinner, and make it clear that Ukraine's future is an existential issue for Europe: that more aid is needed, and more protection from Moscow. Even Trump himself, who a few months ago publicly berated Zelensky in the Oval Office, seemed to put aside his misgivings of a few months ago and expressed his willingness to provide military equipment to the ally. This, along with the possibility of new sanctions against Moscow, was one of the Ukrainians' main goals at this meeting.
